Good morning. It’s been a long, blistering hot, and largely rain-free summer in Houston, but we’re probably through the worst of it. Several readers have emailed in to ask for a comparison to 2011, and to put this summer’s heat into perspective, and we’re going to do that. But the proper thing is to probably wait until the end of August for an apples-to-apples comparison. A lot of that year’s heat was really baked in during August.
So, on to the forecast. This week is still going to be hot, but there’s a slightly twist. There will be a modest reprieve mid-week with some drier air that you won’t want to miss. And looking ahead to next week, things may really start to change a bit and bring us out of this scorching pattern.
Monday
Well, sorry, but today is not going to yield much change. We are again looking at high temperatures of around 100 degrees, plus or minus, with sweltering humidity. Winds will be slight, generally from the southwest, at 5 to 10 mph. Rain chances are about 10 percent, so not impossible, but if you get a pop-up shower you should definitely go out and play the lottery. Lows tonight drop to around 80 degrees as winds pick up some.
Tuesday
A honest-to-goodness cool front is going to arrive on Tuesday, but you really need to set your expectations accordingly. One, it’s mid-August, so there is no much (any) oomph in terms of cooler air. In fact, highs on Tuesday are going to be just as warm as Monday, in the low 100s with sunny skies. However, there will be drier air, with dewpoints dropping into the mid-50s on Tuesday night. The real question is just how far the dry air gets. I don’t think it will drop all the way to the coast, as the front itself will likely get hung up between the coast and Interstate 10. The forecast map below approximates the extent of the dry air.
In terms of wanting to “feel” a change in the weather, your best bet is probably around sunrise on Wednesday morning. Stepping outside won’t exactly feel refreshing, but at this point it’s going to beat the heck out of what has come so far this summer. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the upper 70s for the most part.
Wednesday
As noted above, this day should start with drier air for most of the region, and this will linger into the daytime. Expect highs of around 100 degrees, but at least you can act smugly like an Arizonian, and tell your friends, “At least it’s a dry heat.” Which it will be. Sort of.
Thursday and Friday
Alas the dry air will be fleeting, and we’re going to see the return of more humid days with highs in the low 100s.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend looks hot and sunny as well. At this point rain chances are probably in the 10 to 20 percent range.
Next week
I almost hate to write this, because I don’t want to jinx things. Overall, the pattern shows some relaxation in high pressure next week, and the opening of the door to an atmospheric flow more favorable to rainfall. Right now these rains look most likely in the Monday through Wednesday time period, but because we’re just more than one week out from this, it’s difficult to put much definition on it. So I have some hope right now, but I don’t have details. But goodness knows we need some rainfall so I’ll be keeping tabs on this.
On August 12, IAH unfortunately set an all time record high, never seen before (I think) low of 84 degrees apparently, so we definitely deserve an even stronger front ASAP. What’s concerning is that these record high lows might start being a cakewalk to break as the years go by.
One reason why I am moving the heck out of the Gulf Coast when I retire.
I bet you loved wearing a mask during COVID
What does that have to do with the weather… troll
What does that have to do with weather… stop
Get out of here with that.
Are you serious? Please tell me how this bears any shrapnel of relevance to the weather.
Troll indeed! The trolls are the ones constantly trashing Houston and shouting about how much they can’t wait to get away.
It has to do with Houston and not trashing Houston just because of some uncomfortable weather! People are fleeing TO the gulf coast because of horrible governance and liberal hegemony in northern and western areas.
That is not to say there are not horrible things about our state and local government and culture, but so what? Everyone on here is constantly talking about “getting the hell out” of here, as if no one has any obligations to one’s hometown. …Of course most likely all of you have left your hometown ages ago anyway… BUT if anyone can still grasp the concept of home, and if they still see the place they live as a home (i.e. your family lives here, etc), then, appreciate what we have that is good, work to fix what is broken, and shut up and accept what is uncomfortable.
LOL
No one’s obligated to suffer through extreme heat and hurricanes as they get older, or at any age. What a weird comment.
It will be tough leaving friends, (church) family, and activities, but if someone is truly unhappy where they live, they owe it to themselves to try some place where they might actually be happy. Especially if they have teh freedom to move around.
Actually, no – who did? But I did so out of concern for others
Your collection for moving fees is coming along well, you may not even have to wait until you retire!
I am definitely working away from this meteorological warzone. Sure, no matter where one resides, there will always be disasters, but some may prove to be a tad more manageable than others.
The extremely high overnight lows are what makes this heat oppressive and differentiates it from 2011. I hope this is not a trend in the coming years.
Exactly! I love my long morning walks..I used to get in 5 miles, even on summer mornings mid to late in the summer..I started my walk today at 06:40.. I struggled to get in even 3 miles with my partner who walks slightly faster than I do..ALL summer, last year, walking with her on a 4 mile route at this time of day was sweaty, but child’s play compared to today…
Well, it was 11 miles hike yesterday on the trail, slower than when cool but I believe we are required to struggle in return for a life. 😉
I’m finding it best to walk just before sunset to just after dusk. Relative humidity is lower. And I know where most of the uneven places are on the sidewalks.
Right on cue. Summer is on the way out.
according to the City of Houston it is autumn now.
Oh no, can’t let that Arizonian comment go….as a transplant from AZ (after almost 30 years there), I can definitively say this isn’t as bad. Sure it’s a dry heat most of the time, but 1) it can be 10-20+ degrees hotter and 2) during monsoon season, the humidity is just as bad as Houston with that extra 10-20 degrees. No thank you.
exactly, people complain a lot about the heat in Houston, saying its worse than Arizona, been there and I dont think so. The bad thing about Houston is how dry it has been. No rain at all makes it bad for trees and plants. Its looking ugly out there. Very ugly. Lawns look like they have been burned and the trees are wilting and breaking.
Disagree. I spend a lot of time in PHX and Scottsdale for work in the summer. Houston is worse, much worse. And no way is the humidity ever even close to what it is in Houston. And the evenings can be 10x nicer. That is the difference.
Shoot, they even have radio ads for Arizona in the summer saying its “not that bad”/
I just got back after spending 8+ years in AZ. Arizonians don’t say this, but people definitely say this about Arizona. The heat is far more oppressive there than it is here. We’re only getting a drop in the bucket for a couple of months of what AZ gets for a solid 6 months a year. You are spot on with your 10-20 degrees and monsoon season comments.
I can’t tell you how many people came to visit us in AZ in the summers (from Houston or elsewhere in the deep south) thinking that it would be like a beach vacation. Practically every one commented about the heat saying “I didn’t really know it was this bad. I though the dry air was supposed to help. How do you live here?”
Yeah, I can’t breathe in that dry oven heat. I prefer this humidity to the burning lungs.
Basted instead of air fried.
You’re spot on, I’m next door in New Mexico and once the monsoons start the swamp coolers don’t work efficiently and it’s hot and humid. This year even at 7000 feet where I live its hit 90 regularly and now that the rains have finally started, I’m sweating like I did when I was growing up in Houston.
The National Weather Service has a summary page devoted to the July 1936 heat wave. It is informative.
What causes these large domes of high pressure in the summer to not break down?
A high pressure ridge is formed by a large amount of stable air mass that sinks hot air back down and refuses to let it escape and cool the affected place, these ridges tend to live a ridiculously long time, especially in the south where unstable air masses like fronts and troughs that normally redirect these ridges elsewhere or even break them have a harder time making it through and doing something significant to change the pattern, that’s why we have seen endless heat with very short rainy gaps this summer. Fortunately fall is not too far ahead.
The last few years I’ve found you should square the probability of precipitation to get your actual chances of getting rain. So for this week’s 20%, 0.2 x 0.2 = 0.04 – – you have a 1/25 chance of getting rain this week.
“There was never a night or a problem that could defeat sunrise or hope.” — Bernard Williams
In todays semi-daily dose of hope from Glenn we go back to 2005 the low dropped to 65 F and the high was only 89. It’s clearly not going to be that way this year but fall is just around the corner and while this weeks front won’t do much it is a sign…
Your thinking of 2004. It was brilliant we had several days in a row of lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s that August. Sadly that led to the hottest October on record still to this day, for now anyways. 2005 was like an endless summer. We had our latest 100 degree day on record that year on September 27th.
You are correct it was 2004 not 2005.
You are correct it was 2004. I was looking at the wrong column on the NOAA website.
Bernard Williams never lived in Houston…….
True, but Mr Williams was born in Westcliff-on -Sea in the UK. They get less sun per year than they do at the bottom of Carlsbad Caverns, NM…
People need to be aware that dry heat can be more dangerous than humid heat simply because during dry heat you won’t sweat as much giving you a false reading of overheating while outside. In dry heat, your sweat evaporates so much quicker that you don’t realize that you are overheating. Just be careful and hydrate often.
I just want to know when I can start drinking the Octoberfest brews. Doesn’t really work in triple digits.
Oh the seasonable brew that is synonymous with cooler weather and the harvest! I had a Yuengling Oktoberfest beer last week. It’s just too darn hot for the heavier, maltier lagers. Maybe next month….
Wouldn’t that be in the month of October?????
1!:~D}
I just noticed that the Accuweather app on my phone will give a 45 day forecast. I don’t know whose idea that is, but anyway, the 45-day Accuweather forecast says the next day we will have a high below 90 degrees will be September 4 with a high of 89.
I think that, beyond the next 10-14 days, those truly extended forecasts are based on past year’s averages. They are not truly forecasts based on current conditions.
In the last few years that Houston Chronicle columnist Leon Hale worked, one of his columns would reappear annually in August. The column was about Hale visiting his weekend country home in Winedale in August. His dog would sense and smell the first slightly cooler August air in the morning signaling the probable gradual transition from Summer to Autumn.
Leon lived a long and productive life up to his 99th year until his passing two years ago. His columns were uplifting and a joy to read.
I may grasping at straws to put this in a better light, but are the comparisons to 2011 entirely on point? My argument is not that temps aren’t also wretched, but I recall the brutal drought of that year started the prior autumn, 2010. At least we had decent rain earlier this year. Thinking about the poor trees in Memorial Park.
2022 was the 11th driest year in recorded Texas history. It was the driest we’ve been since 2011. There was a brief reprieve earlier this year, but its coming right back.
Should add, we aren’t anywhere near the drought level of 2011. Heat though, is a different topic.
My mid-August wish list:
1) A cloudy sky
2) Rain or a chance of rain…any where in the area.
3) a day NOT above 100 F….please? Soon?
4) a weak cool front (might happen this week!)
5) any movement of the 500mb “Texas Ridge” away from us to allow for a lot of rain for everyone.
6) the moment I turn the calendar page to September. Hooray!
What happened to summer afternoon thunderstorms? Seems 15 years ago or so, you could count on some part of Houston area getting a thunderstorm moving from south to north and dropping a good amount of rain where it did hit. It wasn’t every day, but most days of the summer these storms would pop up around 3PM or so. Anyone remember these? I guess these strong high pressure systems have taken over our summer pattern.
2021 was a pretty wet summer. Theres been other recent summers that were average or above average in terms of rainfall..
Yeah, Arizona is worse out in the direct sun, but it’s more tolerable in that dry air if you’re lucky enough to find some shade. But the main advantage over Houston are the cooler nights and early mornings.
Tonight the overnight low in Phoenix is supposed to be 89, and tomorrow night it’s supposed to be 91…
The urban heat island effect doesn’t help, I was in Phoenix late in October back in 2017, the high was 101 (possibly a bit higher) during the day and it was still in the upper 90s when I left at 11 in the evening to head back to my friend’s place outside of Tucson.
Sirius dog days…