Late Monday evening Harvey forecast update

Monday, 9:55pm CT— Our torment continues, as rain, albeit far less intense than what we’ve experienced at times since the weekend, continues in another soggy night around Houston.

Now

There’s no good news here, but if we want to try and spin things positively tonight, we can say something at least. Areas west of Houston, where rains flow into the already full Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are seeing relatively lighter rains compared to the rest of the region. The rate of rainfall is averaging about 0.50″ to 1.50″. Of course, areas east do not need the rainfall either. For every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction unfortunately. Again, areas already in flood continue in flood, and the combination of rain and wind prevents much rapid drainage to improve conditions elsewhere.

Harvey continues dumping steady rain over the Houston area. (GR Level 3)

 

Rest of Tonight

Unfortunately we don’t see this rain ending tonight. In fact, the situation may be rather steady state much of the night. Rain will fall at varying levels of intensity. The heaviest will be south of I-10 and east of I-45. Rates will remain in this 0.50″ to 1.50″ per hour rain most of the time, but every so often it could ramp up to 2″ per hour or ease back to 0.25″ per hour. Winds will continue to gust at times to 25 to 35 mph, perhaps down a little from earlier today, but still enough to produce occasional, scattered power outages. CenterPoint is reporting about 96.02% of customers with power tonight, which isn’t substantially changed from earlier today.

Tuesday

We’re almost to the end of this terrible movie, but we have one more day to get through. Analyzing data this evening, it appears steady moderate rains will continue much of Tuesday. Similar to tonight, it could be heavy at times, lighter at others. The trend will be toward slightly more sporadic rains and hopefully slightly lighter ones too. I suspect that trend will continue into tomorrow night.

Wednesday and Thursday

Harvey finally exits to our north on Wednesday. Rain should taper to showers from south to north and end through the day. Yes, the rain will end. Finally. By Thursday, there may still be enough instability around for scattered showers or storms, but they’ll be very hit or miss (many of us dry, others see a shower or two). And I think we’ll see some sunshine here.

We’ll keep you posted through to the end of Harvey and beyond. Be safe all.

Posted at 9:55 PM Monday by Matt

24 thoughts on “Late Monday evening Harvey forecast update

  1. Heather

    Thank you again.

    Unclear from the evacuation orders in Fort Bend County related to the rising rivers — does that mean US 69 will be impassable between Sugarland and Wharton, with or without additional heavy rainfall?

  2. The Hoff

    Fantastic information all week cannot thank you enough for your writing style.

    One anxiety that many of us are having that the local news does not want to talk about is the major risk concerning the Addicks and Barker Reservoirs.

    Floodwater is now starting to expand west from the sides of the reservoirs toward many suburban areas, where homeowners were under non-mandatory evacuation alerts.

    The two dams were built some 70 years ago that didn’t have the development we see today.

    From Dr. Jeff Masters:

    The reservoirs are usually empty, the dams have experienced a sequence of increasingly frequent on-and-off strains due to increased development and more-extreme rainfall events in the Houston area. In 2009, the USACE rated the Addicks and Barker dams as being at “extremely high risk of catastrophic failure,” which put them among just six dams in the nation with that designation.

    It’s important to note that Addicks and Barker have not been considered at imminent risk of failure, according to USACE, who say the designation hinges in large part on the scope of the disaster if failure were to occur. As reported in the Houston Chronicle last year, “If the dams failed, half of Houston would be underwater. Under the worst scenario at Addicks, property damages could reach $22.7 billion, and 6,928 people could die.”

  3. Erik G

    Would just like to say again, thank you Matt and Eric for your spectacular reporting and clear analysis throughout this whole ordeal. It’s been greatly appreciated!

  4. Andy

    Thank you all for your continued updates. From the leadup to the storm and throughout, this has been the most consistent and clear source of information which has incredible value amidst so much uncertainty and sensation.

  5. Nina

    Going in, you guys repeatedly said this was going to be long, and it was.

    Thank you again for being factual – it has helped me stay calm. It also helped me explain why staying is the better option to many, many concerned loved ones.

    The end seems to be in sight, and it cannot come soon enough.

    Again, thank you for the stellar coverage of this unprecedented weather event. You are both much, much appreciated.

    I hope all is well with you and your loved ones.

  6. J Moore

    Thank you so much for the dedicated and professional reporting. Your reports have been a light in this horrific storm.

  7. L Duncan

    Worry that you are announcing Mandatory Evacuation, Theifs and looters will have Playday. Are they securing all entrances to those subdivisions?

  8. Melody

    Words cannot express how much I appreciate these posts. With information coming from so many sources, many of them tainted with unfounded opinions or unchecked ‘facts’ it is like a breath of fresh air to get some information from a level headed source who just tells it like it is minus the hype. We appreciate you.

  9. Patrick Hart

    Thank you for helping me keep my sanity throughout this nightmare.
    Your complete and coherent analysis of the weather gave many of us comfort through understanding during these difficult times.

  10. Mary

    Thank you for all of the wonderful updates you give! I’m in North Dallas (slightly south of Denton) and my parents/brother/grandma/aunts & uncles live in Southwest Houston. I appreciate the all of the information since I’m not there.
    The only thing about your post tonight that bothers me is the comment about Centerpoint and 96% of there customers HAVE electricity. My parents and their neighbors have been WITHOUT electricity since Saturday. They have called everyday as have their neighbors and are told “ma’am, we are trying…”. My parents are in an area that the waters have receded since yesterday afternoon.
    I’m only ask since you are sponsored Reliant and could possibly shed some light.
    Again thank you for all of the information and giving an honest outlook on things!

  11. Jasmine

    My anxiety has been through the roof and back at times during this storm, but I feel it might have been even worse without you guys and your around the clock, level-headed information. Truly from the bottom of my heart, thank you so much for what you’re doing. You guys are a hidden gem for the Houston area.

  12. Mary

    Thank you for all of the wonderful updates you give! I’m in North Dallas (slightly south of Denton) and my parents/brother/grandma/aunts & uncles live in Southwest Houston. I appreciate the all of the information since I’m not there.
    The only thing about your post tonight that bothers me is the comment about Centerpoint and 96% of their customers HAVE electricity. My parents and their neighbors have been WITHOUT electricity since Saturday. They have called everyday, as have their neighbors, and are told “ma’am, we are trying…”. My parents are in an area that the waters receded yesterday afternoon.
    I’m only ask since you are sponsored Reliant and could possibly shed some light. Maybe???
    Again thank you for all of the information and giving an honest, hype free outlook on things! I look forward to reading more posts.

  13. CobyTooBad

    Thanks for the great insight about Harvey and his ruthless dismay he brought to Texas August 2017!!!! Matt thanks again and keep the letters in place like you have, I can’t wait to see your poetry again!!!

  14. Mardifleur

    Great read,Mr.Lanza,and comments, one and all,since most of you are from the ‘affected area’…I’m located 1,000 miles away,give or take,in S.Fla.,and have been watching local Houston tv stations’coverage (and reading,clearly!)and though I wish to offer prayers to all as well,it MUST be said that thus far inasmuch as this disaster can be ‘handled’,Harris,Ft.Bend and surrounding counties’people are beyond outstanding! Having lived through many a hurricane in Fla.,and briefly lived in LA., the actions and REactions of everyone are an example of how everyone SHOULD behave but sadly rarely do!

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