Before we get into the heat, we still have a couple things to discuss, including the potential for a few stronger storms today. We’ll hit on that, but then we’ll assess the upcoming heat, how long it may last, and how hot it may actually get.

Today

For all intents and purposes, today may be like the last couple days have been in Houston: Hazy, sunny, then afternoon pop up storms. The haze is primarily a result of agricultural burning in Central America and southern Mexico. It does appear that air quality readings are a bit better this morning than they have been this week. Ground ozone will again be an issue today due to sunshine, warm weather, and light winds.

Today’s forecast is a bit more difficult than normal for this time of year. We have a lot of “juice” for thunderstorms, including healthy instability, a little bit of wind shear, and a lot of chaotic boundaries that may interact with one another this afternoon and evening.

We will probably see storms begin to pop up after 12 to 2 PM as they have on most afternoons this week. From there, it’s very difficult to predict the exact evolution of things. Storms may interact with each other, in addition to old boundaries sitting over the area. We may also add in a cluster of new storms coming in from the north and west as well. Whatever the case, it would appear that some of us will be in for some stormy weather late this afternoon and early this evening. Have your umbrella and a place to sneak indoors available. If you have any late afternoon outdoor activities, have a way to get warnings and move inside if you hear thunder We saw numerous lightning strikes seemingly out of the blue yesterday afternoon near my house before storms had actually developed.

Aside from storms, look for highs generally in the low-90s today.

Friday

We will begin to see high pressure in the upper atmosphere build out of Mexico and into Texas tomorrow. This will allow for most places away from the coast to touch the mid-90s or even a bit hotter. Morning lows will be generally in the 70s.

Rain chances will again be in the forecast, lower than today but not near zero. Some isolated stronger storms may again be possible, especially east of Houston toward Beaumont and Port Arthur.

Saturday

We interrupt this developing heat wave with a quick interlude. A weak disturbance will disrupt the burgeoning ridge of high pressure over Texas and probably increase rain chances a bit on Saturday afternoon or evening, especially north of I-10. Most places will probably stay dry, but there will be some areas that see downpours. We should still manage to get into the 90s on Saturday, after morning lows in the mid-70s.

Sunday through Tuesday

Hot and humid. Rain chances won’t quite be zero, but they’ll be exceedingly low. High temperatures on these days will be well into the 90s with morning lows in the mid to upper-70s, if not near 80 degrees in spots.

When we start talking upper 90s by day and near 80 by night, that’s when you can start running into heat stress issues. Please make sure elderly, young children, and vulnerable populations (and pets!) are tended to next week. Also, you too! Our bodies have experienced a pretty pleasant late May and June by Houston standards. We have not acclimated to true summer heat yet. This will hit us pretty good. Drink water, wear sunscreen, and take it easy outside.

How long does this last?

If you look at upper level maps, it appears we might have a brief chance at better rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday of next week as a weak trough flattens the ridge some. But it is expected to then reload heading toward next weekend, so it will be awhile we think.

How hot can it get?

I guess the better question is: Can we do 100 degrees? The answer is yes. The National Blend of Models has us at about a 65 percent chance of hitting 100 degrees next Thursday, Friday, or Saturday. But that’s not guaranteed. Things that could wreck that chance include soil moisture, more numerous afternoon storms than expected, and high clouds from an El Niño-driven stronger than normal southern jet stream.

Soil moisture is running near normal or even slightly above normal in our area. A drier ground heats up more efficiently, but more moisture in the ground can slow down that heating process a bit. Thus, this could be good for knocking a degree or so off temperatures next week. So maybe instead of 101°, we end up near 99-100° or so.

The axis of high pressure for much of next week is centered over and just west of Hill Country. While Houston isn’t exactly on the periphery of that, there is always the chance that models are underdoing our rain chances some. Higher rain chances may yield slightly lower temperatures.

Lastly, the jet stream has been humming over Texas and Mexico lately. This is likely tied back to the developing El Niño in the Pacific. Anytime you have an active Pacific jet like this, you run the risk of high clouds. Should we get more of those than expected, look for a couple degrees knocked off high temps next week, but perhaps a degree or two added to nighttime lows. This would be true more so early on than later next week.

With all that said, I think there’s probably a better than 50 to 60 percent chance we hit 100 degrees next week, with multiple 98-99 degree days peppered in between. Either way, hot. Very hot.

Good morning. The overall pattern for Houston’s forecast remains the same. We’re going to have a couple of more days of fairly modest rain chances as high pressure starts to build over the area, and sends our temperatures upward. And the Houston region is still looking its first sustained period of hot temperatures beginning this weekend, and lasting through at least much of next week.

Wednesday

High pressure doesn’t have our region in a firm grip yet, so we’re going to see more moderate weather today, with highs of around 90 degrees and mostly sunny skies. The atmosphere is just disturbed enough that we could see some showers and thunderstorms break out during the afternoon hours with daytime heating. However, these storms should be more scattered than what has come earlier this week. I would peg daily rain chances at about 20 or 30 percent. Winds will be light, with lows dropping into the low 70s tonight.

Thursday

A day like Wednesday, with sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. This will probably be the final day that we really need to watch for thunderstorms to pop up during the afternoon hours, but there’s still a chance before high pressure clamps down.

Friday

Should be a mostly sunny day with highs in the low- to mid 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

This will feel more like a weekend in July or August, with sunny skies, high humidity, and high temperatures in the mid 90s. Since the Sun is now very nearly at its highest point in the year—the solstice comes on June 21—please protects your skin from 10 am to 4 pm at least.

Next week

The heat train rolls onward, and upward. Highs for much of next week should push into the upper 90s, with some inland areas recording their first century marks of the year. Rain chances look to be nil through at least the middle of next week, if not beyond. You wanted summer, Houston? You got it.

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Tuesday

Following fairly widespread storms on Monday, the atmosphere remains disturbed today. As a result we should see another round of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours today. However, I think coverage and intensity will be a bit less, with perhaps 50 percent of the region seeing rainfall. Partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon should limit high temperatures into the mid- to upper-80s. Winds, outside of thunderstorms, should be light. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

This will be a bit of a transition day, with some scattered showers and thunderstorms, and partly sunny skies. Look for high temperatures near 90 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure moves in, temperatures will go up. And truth be told, we’re going to flip a switch and go into full-on summer, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s. Nighttime temperatures will be noticeably warmer too, bumping up into the mid-70s with that sultry humidity you know and either love or loathe. (Yes, some people do love the Houston humidity). Rain chances each day will be about 10 percent with the afternoon sea breeze.

Saturday and Sunday

More of the same. We’re taking highs in the mid-90s, sunny skies, and humidity.

Next week

Not to end this forecast on too much of a downer, but there is some question about how much hotter it might get next week. The upper 90s, probably. It’s a tiny bit early for 100-degree heat, but certainly not unprecedented. It will feel like a blowtorch regardless. Welcome to summer 2023, y’all.

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Just like the summer heat, storms are a part of life in Texas, so being prepared is critical. Like everyone else, we are hopeful this season will be a quiet one, but come what may, Reliant and Space City Weather will be here for you.

Good morning. So far we have eased into summertime this year. For the entire month of May, temperatures ended up slightly below normal. And the first several days of June trended cooler as well. That party, I am sorry to say, should end this week.

By Thursday or Friday, as high pressure builds over the region with a warm southerly flow, I expect high temperatures to reach the mid-90s and stay there for awhile. This will be the beginning of what I like to call “Mid summer” in Houston, the second of our four phases of summer.

Monday

But we’re not there yet. In the absence of high pressure, and with a moderately disturbed atmosphere, we’ll see decent rain chances for the next few days. The potential for showers and thunderstorms will be highest today, with 60 to 70 percent coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours in Houston. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable, but on average most locations should pick up 0.25 to 1 inch of rain, with perhaps areas south of Interstate 10 seeing slightly higher accumulations. As these storms may be hitting about during rush hour, take a little extra care in getting home this evening. These showers, along with mostly cloudy skies, should limit highs to the upper 80s. Rain chances are lower overnight, with lows falling to around 70 degrees.

Tuesday

This day should be similar to Monday, in terms of showers popping up during the afternoon hours. However, I expect less coverage of storms. Skies will be also be partly sunny, so highs may nudge up to 90 degrees in some locations.

Wednesday

This is a bit of a transition day. We’ll still see some showers, but as we’re moving to a hotter and less rainy pattern, look for partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances will fall back to about 20 percent each day, with just a slight chance of a sea breeze shower in the afternoon. Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid-90s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The forecast period from this weekend into the middle of next week simply looks mostly sunny and hot, with high temperatures in the mid-90s. While we can’t entirely rule out rain chances, the pattern does not look to produce much in the way of precipitation. As I said at the outset, summer proper is on the way.