In brief: Storms are likely in Houston today, after noon. The line of showers and thunderstorms may hit the area during the critical hours after school, or during the early portions of the evening commute, so please remain weather aware. After that we will have a couple of calmer weather days.

Monday

A number of ingredients for severe weather are stacking up this morning across the Houston area, including atmospheric moisture, instability, shear, and a trigger in the form of a weak front that will push through. All of these factors are likely to produce a line of showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be severe, that will move through Houston from northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours today.

In terms of timing, I expect conditions to warm and muggy this morning, with temperatures in the 80s and mostly cloudy skies. The action is likely to pick up shortly after noon, to the west of Houston. Locations such as Katy and The Woodlands are like to see the onset of storms between 2 and 4 pm, with the line moving into central Houston later this afternoon, perhaps between 3 and 5 pm, and reaching the coast between 4 and 6 pm. I realize the timing here in unfortunate, likely affecting parts of the metro area during school pick-up, afternoon activities, and the evening commute. Please check the radar before venturing out—conditions will be better in some locations than others.

With regard to impact, the line of storms should be fairly progressive as it moves through the area. So the worst of the rain, lightning, and other impacts, including damaging winds, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes, should not last too long. But these conditions may be briefly intense. Some street flooding is also possible during the strongest storms, in which up to 3 inches may fall fairly quickly. After the initial line of storms showers may linger for another hour or two. The bottom line is that today will be a day to be weather aware, especially from noon to around sunset. Not all areas will be affected by severe storms, but it does look like a fairly good chunk of the region will be.

Temperatures tonight should fall into the upper 60s with mostly cloudy skies.

Tuesday

Expect sunnier skies and calmer weather in the wake of the front. Highs will reach about 90 degrees, aided by sunshine and the slight drier air that will allow them to pop up. Winds will be fairly light, from the north. Lows on Tuesday night should drop into the upper 60s again for most of the metro area, away from the coast.

Wednesday

Another sunny day with highs near 90 degrees. Winds will shift to come from the southeast during the day time, most likely, allowing for a slightly warmer and more humid night in the low 70s.

Thursday

More storm chances return on Thursday as the atmosphere becomes more amenable with passing disturbances. Right now let’s call for a likely chance of rain, but with lower confidence in the details. Expect highs in the mid-80s.

Friday

A chance of showers lingers, but the signal is not as strong for Friday. Look for highs in the upper 80s. Details to come.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks mostly sunny. Saturday should bring temperatures in the upper 80s, with Sunday likely reaching the lower 90s. I can’t entirely rule out some passing showers on Saturday, but overall chances are near zero on Sunday.

Next week

It’s difficult to say too much, but at this point I expect summer lite conditions next week, with highs generally in the low 90s. High pressure looks to be mainly in control, but we’ll have to see if that actually comes to pass.

In brief: We’re likely to see the development of widespread showers, in addition to some thunderstorms, later this morning in the Houston area. Activity should be most pronounced this afternoon before the area likely starts to clear out for a bit this evening. If you’re taking mom out, bring an umbrella and check the radar just to be safe.

A lot of the ingredients necessary for moderate to heavy rainfall are percolating in the atmosphere near Houston right now. We’ve got plenty of moisture and instability. There’s also the impetus for lift, to carry the warm air at the surface higher into the atmosphere. What this all means is that the stage is set for showers and thunderstorms later today. But what will happen when the curtain actually rises?

Generally, I expect activity to develop to the southwest of the Houston metro area later this morning, and then push into the central portions of the region including Harris County, before or around noon. These showers and thunderstorms should gradually lift north during the afternoon hours, and I expect rain chances to subside almost entirely by sunset. I’m not anticipating anything too crazy today, with most of the region likely picking up a few tenths of an inch of rain to maybe 2 inches. However, there could be some higher bullseyes that cause temporary street flooding. Highs today will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with plenty of cloud cover. Mom doesn’t need to worry about a sunburn today, so she’s got that going for her, which is nice.

Monday should see some additional shower and thunderstorm chances, although I don’t feel entirely confident in the details. It also looks as though the potential for severe storms will be a little higher on Monday or Monday evening, with damaging winds and hail a slight possibility. We’ll have a comprehensive update on all of that for you early on Monday morning.

Have a wonderful holiday, everyone!

In brief: If you have clear skies and minimal light pollution, look to the north for a chance that you may see the aurora borealis (or northern lights) here in Southeast Texas (Friday night, the 10th).

We’ll keep this brief. A massive, if not historic solar storm has unleashed a barrage of solar flares toward Earth. Those arrived today, the strongest solar storm in at least 20 years to impact us. We have seen reports all over Europe of the aurora being visible. Not just visible…VISIBLE. Those reports have spread into the U.S. now, with much of Georgia, parts of Mississippi, Mobile, AL, and now Pinehurst and The Woodlands and Lake Conroe reporting the aurora.

The aurora can be fickle, so there is no guarantee you will see it everywhere tonight, certainly not in the city of Houston where light pollution is likely too much to overcome. However, if you have the means and time to get out and look north, this may be a once in a lifetime opportunity here in Southeast Texas. Please send us pictures as you’re able.

In brief: Quiet weather, (hopefully) less haze and smoke, and lower humidity will welcome us today and most of Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will bring a heavy rain chance back to the area on Sunday and Monday. We will be watching for flooding risks again to the north of Metro Houston.

I just want to start with a quick thank you to all that replied to our call for assistance earlier this week for our partners at the University of Houston working on weather messaging research. Nearly 200 of you responded, which is both amazing — and overwhelming! The small team of researchers at UH is working hard to get to everyone who replied. They should have more than enough response now to hopefully generate some interesting and useful results. Once again, you’re all awesome, so thank you!

Heavy rain update

While most of Houston saw little to no rain last night, areas to the north and west were clobbered with large hail or heavy downpours. There was another 1 to 4 inches of rain on the northern end of Lake Livingston. At this point, it does not appear that will do much to the Trinity River situation (which continues to slowly drop). But we’ll await updated forecasts later today. Meanwhile, the Brazos will begin to crest from north to south this weekend into next week.

The crest should reach Rosharon by about Monday and then West Columbia by Tuesday, with minor to moderate flooding, which primarily affects the lowlands and perhaps a couple roads near the river. This is not currently expected to get worse.

Today

Update (10:05 AM): Some showers have developed across Wharton and Jackson Counties and will spread eastward through the morning. Brief heavy rain is possible, and a shower can’t be ruled out in Houston either.

Good news today. Air quality should improve. Yes, the last couple days have seen smoke from a lot, I mean a *lot* of agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America. It has degraded air quality and everyone’s mood. With a breeze today pointed offshore, that should hopefully push a lot of this smoke back south of here. Hopefully last night’s rain helped too. I won’t promise a super clean air quality day, but we are starting off much better than yesterday already.

Will this end our streak of 90 degree-free days? Probably not. But it may be close. Drier air heats up more efficiently than humid air, and there may be just enough to push some of us over 90 today, particularly south of I-10. Maybe bet on Hobby Airport and not Bush Airport.

Saturday

This should be a mostly quiet day. Maybe a sprinkle or shower. But otherwise clouds, sun, still not terribly humid or hot. Morning lows will be in the 60s to near 70, with daytime highs in the mid-80s.

Mother’s Day & Monday

The word to your mother will be rain this year. Unfortunately we continue to see a soggy picture being painted for Sunday. I don’t think the entire day will be a washout everywhere, but an umbrella will be a required accessory for church or brunch or wherever your plans take you. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely on both Sunday and Monday. For the majority of metro Houston, most of the rain should be manageable. Some ponding or a stronger storm or two are possible. At this time, we don’t expect much worse than that. Again, that’s for most of Houston.

That said, atmospheric moisture is near the top of the charts for this time of year, which means that we could be talking about heavy rainfall rates in spots. If those rains end up north of I-10 in vulnerable areas up in Montgomery, northeast Harris, or Liberty Counties and points north, we may have flooding issues again. For now, let’s call it 1 to 3 inches of additional rain, with lower amounts possible south and higher amounts possible north. Keep tabs on the forecast this weekend. We will have at least one more update later tomorrow or Sunday morning with the latest.

Rest of next week

Quieter weather should follow for Tuesday or Wednesday before more storm chances return perhaps Wednesday night or Thursday. We have an opportunity to hit 90 on Tuesday, but then our next realistic chance won’t come until next weekend.