Summary: After record heat on Tuesday, Houston will cool off slightly today and Thursday. Rain chances return Friday, with the slight potential for some thunderstorms. The weekend looks rather pleasant, with a fair amount of sunshine and highs in the 60s.

Early season heat

Houston fell just short of 90 degrees on Tuesday, with a high temperature topping out at 89 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This smashed the previous record high for March 5, 84 degrees, which was reached in 1907, 1991, and 1998. The normal high for this time of year is 72 degrees.

If you’re wondering whether this would have been the earliest 90-degree day on record in Houston, had the mercury ticked a single degree higher, the answer is no. The city’s earliest 90-degree day in a calendar year came on February 20, 1986, with a high of 91 degrees.

What does all of this mean for the rest of spring and summer? As it’s a single data point, probably not a whole lot. But with a waning El Nino we already were expecting warmer than normal conditions through the middle of this year. So if nothing else, it’s a preview of what is to come. But fortunately, not just yet.

Wednesday

A few more clouds today should help to cool temperatures a bit, with highs likely in the low- to mid-80s. Winds from the southeast will be light, at 5 to 10 mph. With dewpoints around 60 degrees the air will be modestly humid, but nothing too crazy.

Rodeo forecast

Once again there should be no weather concerns about attending the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo this evening. Temperatures going in to the show will be in the low 70s with partly cloudy skies. Afterward they’ll be in the upper 60s, so very mild. Rain chances are nil. Overnight lows will drop into the low 60s in Houston, with the possible development of fog near the coast.

Thursday

This will be a mostly cloudy day with a high of around 80 degrees. We’ll also see a more robust southerly wind at the surface, at times gusting to 20 or 25 mph. There is a slight chance of some very light showers later on Thursday afternoon, evening, and overnight, with lows likely only dropping into the upper 60s.

Friday

I have lots of questions about Friday, but only some general answers at this point. In the big picture, an upper-level low pressure system will shove a front toward our area, and this will help provide the impetus for some rain showers. What I think will happen is that beginning early Friday morning and running through the early afternoon, we’ll see some mostly light showers progressing from west to east across the area. I don’t think accumulations will be too great, likely on the order of a few tenths of an inch of rain. With that said, there is a chance that we see some stronger thunderstorms embedded within these showers. Again, I think the likelihood of this happening is low, but it’s non-negligible. Chances are better for thunderstorms to the north of the Houston metro area.

In terms of temperatures we’ll see highs, probably, in the upper 70s. Drier air will arrive with the front during the afternoon or evening hours, pushing overnight lows into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see the return of mostly sunny skies, for the most part. Saturday will be breezy, as drier and cooler air blows in. Look for highs in the upper 60s, with lows dropping on Saturday night to around 50 degrees in the city, with cooler conditions further inland.

Sunday should be a fine, partly sunny day with highs in the mid- to upper-60s and lighter winds. Lows Sunday night again drop to around 50 degrees.

Next week

Most of next week should bring highs in the 70s, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. It continues to look like we’ll see a decent shot of rainfall during the Thursday and Friday time period ahead of another front, but the contours of all that remain pretty hazy.

Summary: We’re seeing the return of Spring not just in weather, but nature, with a profusion of bugs. Temperatures in the days ahead will do little to deter them, with highs in the 80s for the work week before we cool off a bit this weekend. We could see some showers on Friday ahead of a front.

The bugs are back, baby

February was rather mild across the Houston area, with an average temperature about 4 degrees warmer than normal. March has started more or less the same, and with temperatures today in the mid- to upper-80s it will definitely feel like winter is an afterthought. As one walks around outside there are other signs as well. The mosquito hawks, large and harmless flying insects, are thick as thieves in my neighborhood. (Their formal name is crane fly, by the way). And at night it sounds like the June bugs are popping like popcorn has they hit the window. Tree pollen numbers are rising. Pretty soon, I have no doubt, we’ll see increasing mosquito activity.

Looking ahead to the forecast it seems pretty clear that Spring is here to stay. Our next two fronts, this weekend and next weekend, roughly, will knock low temperatures down into the 40s for a few days. But there are no signs on the horizon of any really strong or prolonged cold snaps. So in this case nature is not lying. Spring has sprung, and the bugs are back.

Tuesday

Coastal counties are seeing fog this morning, but it will burn off by mid-morning at the latest. In its wake, later today, we should see mostly sunny skies. This sunshine, along with some slightly drier air, will allow highs to pop up into the mid- to upper-80s today—possibly our warmest day of 2024 so far. This daytime heating and an atmosphere that is slightly disturbed may lead to some highly isolated thunderstorms later this morning, and during the afternoon hours, but I’d put chances of that at about 10 percent. Mostly, it will be warm and sunny.

Rodeo weather

There should be no concerns about attending the rodeo this evening. Temperatures will be mild, in the 70s, with light winds and partly to mostly clear skies. Post-show temperatures will still be in the upper-60s, so not really a chill in the air. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-60s, with a potential for returning fog by early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be warm and mostly sunny again, with highs likely reaching the low- to mid-80s. Lows again will only drop into the 60s.

Thursday

A cloudier pattern sets in on Thursday, and this should limit highs to the upper 70s to 80 degrees.

Friday

Atmospheric moisture will surge on Friday, leading to a more humid day and a decent chance of rain ahead of the next front. For areas north of Houston, such as Conroe and Huntsville, it looks like the atmosphere will support the possibility of stronger thunderstorms. However closer to downtown Houston and the coast, we should see a weakening trend in the intensity of rainfall. Overall, I’d expect accumulations of between a few tenths of an inch and 0.5 inch, with about a 50 percent chance of rain. The best chances will come during the morning hours.

Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s, with mostly cloudy skies. A front will arrive, but not until the afternoon or evening hours most likely. Lows on Friday night should drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks pleasant, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Saturday does look breezy, with gusts above 20 mph as drier air moves in. Winds die down overnight. Lows will be in the upper 40s to 50 degrees—so cool, but not exactly cold.

Next week

Most of next week should bring temperatures in the 70s. Of note is the possibility for some decent rainfall accumulations toward the middle to end of next week. After a wet winter it’s been fairly dry of late, so an inch or so would not be unwelcome. Eventually some sort of front should cool us back down, at least a bit, for the following weekend.

Summary: Houston will see at least some scattered showers today, with the slight potential for some thunderstorms. Tuesday looks warm (almost hot) and sunny, and should be our warmest day of 2024 so far. After that we’ll be warm and mostly cloudy until the weekend, when conditions turn cooler.

Monday

Fog is present along and near the coast this morning as dewpoints and temperatures are the same, in the upper 60s. It will dissipate by mid-morning. High temperatures today will reach about 80 degrees, with persistent cloud cover. The big question for today is rainfall. There should be plenty of moisture available, but overall conditions are not ideal. What you can probably expect is scattered, light showers this morning. This afternoon, with daytime heating, some stronger thunderstorms will be possible, but these should be scattered to isolated. The bottom line is that half the area may see no rain at all, but a few pockets probably could see heavy showers and lightning. Overall, the potential for stronger showers today appears to be slightly higher along and north of Interstate 45.

Rodeo forecast

Temperatures will be plenty mild this evening heading into the rodeo, in the low 70s. The concern, discussed above, is the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Overall the odds are fairly low, probably 20 percent or less, this evening before, during, or after the show. But this is not zero, so please be weather aware. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s, so it will be mild after the show.

Tuesday

For those who want sunshine and heat, Tuesday is the day. As Matt described last week, we’re going to see a decaying front push into Houston that will bring some slightly drier air (but no cooling). This, combined with mostly sunny skies, will allow high temperatures to pop. Right now the most likely outcome is highs in the mid-80s, but a few locations could push toward 90 degrees. Regardless it’s going to feel very warm for early March. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the low to mid-60s.

Wednesday

This looks to be a partly sunny day in the low 80s, with another mild night.

Thursday

A few more clouds should help to limit highs to the upper 70s. Some low shower chances return later on Thursday and Thursday night.

Friday

We’ll see another chance of showers on Friday ahead of a cold front. At this point I’m not convinced how widespread precipitation will be, so I’ll say that about half of the region will at least see some light rain. But we’ll see. Look for highs around 80 degrees with drier air arriving sometime during the daytime with the front. Overnight lows drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be for those who like cooler conditions. Highs both days will likely range from 65 to 70 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Rain chances look low to non-existent. Lows temperatures will bottom out at around 50 degrees in Houston, with 40s possible for inland areas.

Next week

We’ll see a warming trend heading into the middle of next week, with highs getting back into the 70s. Some decent rain chances return by around Wednesday or so.

Summary: Temperatures will begin warming up today as we clear out the clouds. Look for a super Saturday and a decent Sunday with temperatures rebounding to near 80° once more. A system Monday brings us our next rain chances before we slowly clear out Tuesday.

Today

It’s a cool start today once again with temperatures in the 40s and 50s across the region.

We will probably be socked in with clouds over most of the region this morning. But as a weak system exits, slightly drier air will push in and dissipate much of the cloud cover, setting up what should be a nice afternoon. It feels like it will be tough to squeeze much more moisture out of that system as it exits today, so other than a few isolated morning showers, especially on the coast or around Matagorda Bay, that should be that. With some added sunshine and slightly warmer air in place, we’ll likely rebound to 70 degrees or better this afternoon. That’s close to what is typical for this time of year.

Rodeo Forecast

As far as this forecaster is concerned, tonight is worth much more than half a buck. Look for temperatures dropping through the 60s with light winds and generally clear or partly cloudy skies. No need for 21 questions about the weather, as there will be no rain and nothing to worry about in da club afterwards.

We’ll open the evening around 70 degrees and close in the low-60s.

Weekend

Saturday looks great. Highs will be near 80 degrees, with humidity remaining at a fairly tolerable level. Sunshine and just a few clouds are expected, though the morning could stay gray in some spots, especially close to the coast or Galveston Bay.

Sunday may see additional morning low clouds or fog, giving way to a mix of clouds and sun. Highs will again be near 80 degrees. I wouldn’t entirely rule out a few raindrops Sunday afternoon, but it should not wreck your day.

Monday

A storm over the southern Plains will drag a “kinda sorta” front toward Houston on Monday. It honestly may just fall apart before it actually gets here. What it will do, regardless, is deliver an increasing chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. I would not call Monday a washout, but it looks like our best rain chance in a minute. Temperatures will start the day in the 60s and warm to near 80 once more, even with rain chances.

Moisture levels in the atmosphere look pretty beefy on Monday, so a few folks may see heavier downpours. But this rain looks very manageable, if not welcome.

Tuesday

Arguably, Tuesday is the most interesting forecast day. Behind Monday’s decaying front, we may get just enough lowering of humidity to allow for temperatures to have a little more runway to work with Tuesday. Drier air heats up more efficiently than humid air, and that drop in humidity between Monday and Tuesday will boost temps some. The question of how warm comes down to whether or not we see clouds and lingering showers Tuesday. If that happens, we’ll probably take a run toward 80 or so once again with morning lows in the 60s.

However, with enough sunshine, we could push rather decently into the 80s. In fact, I looked “under the hood” at the National Blend of Models, and it even has a 10 percent chance of high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees on Tuesday. I surely would not forecast that, but it gives you an idea that the atmosphere is ready to go warm. Will we get the sunshine to do it? I’m not sure. But expect at least 80 on Tuesday, with risk for hotter.

Rest of next week

Beyond Tuesday, the week looks a little cooler, with highs in the 70s most days, perhaps near 80 at times. Morning lows will be in the lower half of the 60s. A few passing showers can’t be ruled out between Wednesday and Saturday. A more robust cold front may approach the region around next weekend, which could allow for a sharper drop in temperatures, not as cold as it was yesterday and this morning but notably cooler. We’ll keep an eye on that.