After a fairly nice day on Thursday, we are back to the cloud thing again today (though the east side might be seeing a good bit of sun initially). A storm system passing through tonight with a cold front will bring most of us some rain, locally heavy at times, before we clear out for the weekend. Read on for the latest on Christmas below as well.

Today

Most of today will be just fine, with nothing worse than some clouds. A passing shower is possible, especially near Matagorda Bay today or north and west of Houston this afternoon, but the rain should hold off for most of today. After 3 or 4 PM, rain chances do start to increase. Highs will be in the upper-60s to low-70s. Also look for some breezy conditions today, especially over the water and at the coast.

Tonight

The exact timing of the rain will vary from place to place, but generally look for a northwest to southeast progression of rain this evening after about 5 to 6 PM or so. Rain will fall through the night, heavy at times, especially north and west of Houston I think. There will probably be an axis of maximum rainfall that sits north and west of Houston, from Columbus to Conroe to Lake Livingston.

In that area, we’re expecting 1 to maybe as much as 2 inches, with slightly higher or lower amounts depending on exactly how things set up. For most of the city and suburbs, rain will push through but totals will vary a bit more, perhaps as little as a quarter-inch to as much as an inch or so. This will extend south and east until you get to the coast. Some locally heavier rainfall could fall near the immediate coast or just offshore. Some rumbles of thunder and some ponding on roads are certainly possible tonight, but we are not expecting severe weather or significant flooding. Lows will be in the 50s.

Saturday

Any showers should clear the area in the early morning, leaving us with clouds. We should see at least partial clearing during the day Saturday, but temperatures probably won’t get too far past 60 degrees in the afternoon.

Sunday & Monday

Both Sunday and Monday look like a great pair of early winter days. Expect sunshine with lows in the low-40s and highs in the low, maybe mid-60s.

Tuesday through Thursday

We don’t expect any significant weather for the middle of next week, but look for varying periods of sun and clouds. Days that are cloudy will be in the 50s to low 60s, while days with sun will pop into the mid to upper-60s. Morning lows should remain generally in the 40s to perhaps 50s by Thursday.

Piecing together the Christmas period

The Christmas weekend continues to look mild and potentially unsettled. Initially, look for warm weather and probably clouds and some sun with a slight chance of showers Friday and Saturday. It’s tough to pinpoint exactly what the story is next weekend, but between maps and charts, we can start to make some assumptions. Atmospheric moisture is likely to increase in Houston beginning Friday and Saturday. Right now, the European ensemble mean for precipitable water next weekend is around 1.25″ in Houston, which puts us fairly close to the 90th percentile of atmospheric moisture. In simple terms: There will be a good deal of moisture available to produce clouds and showers next weekend in the area.

Moisture doesn’t mean a whole lot unless there is a “trigger” to produce rain and storms. The best setup for that looks to be in interior Texas next Friday and Saturday, but that will march eastward Sunday and Monday, which seems to imply some sort of cold front.

So what’s it all mean? Expect clouds and some shower chances Friday and Saturday with a greater chance of rain on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. Temperatures are likely to be a good deal above normal, with highs in the 70s likely, followed by colder weather after Christmas. We’ll see how this plays out over the weekend and update you with the latest on Monday!

Good morning. Houston faces the prospect of a wet Friday night before cooler weather prevails this weekend and the first half of next week. And although the modeling remains far from unanimous, the most likely outcome for the Christmas holiday in Houston is mild weather with a fairly decent chance of rainfall.

Thursday

Today will be a fairly mild December day, high temperatures in the mid- to upper-60s. We may briefly see some sunshine this afternoon before clouds build again tonight. Winds will blow from the east, with some gusts up to 15 or 20 mph. That will be piling on moisture into the atmosphere that will support rain showers later on Friday. Low temperatures on Thursday night will only drop into the mid-50s for most of Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland.

Friday

The day will start cloudy, and we’ll probably see high temperatures push into the upper 60s despite the clouds. Some light rain showers will be possible during the morning hours, but the most likely scenario is that any more organized showers won’t push into the Houston metro area until the late afternoon or evening hours. This system will move from west to east ahead of a surface front. Overall rain accumulations for most areas on Friday night will be quite manageable, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of precipitation. However, there is definitely the potential for some heavy rainfall for isolated areas, and this may briefly cause some street flooding.

Saturday

The front should move through by around midnight or shortly after, and it now appears that this should bring a fairly swift end to our rain chances. We can’t rule out of a few lingering showers on Saturday morning, but I expect they’ll be rather scattered. Look for highs of about 60 degrees, clearing skies, and much drier air as winds blow from the north at about 15 mph, and gust to 25 mph or higher during the daytime. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 40s.

Sunday

This should be a sunny day, with highs in the low- to mid-60s and plenty of dry air. Winds remain out of the north, but should be slackening. Lows on Sunday night will be chilly, dropping into the low 40s.

Next week

So what’s on tap for the final week before the Christmas holiday? The first half of the work week should generally be sunny and cool, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Then we’re going to see a moderate warming trend heading into the weekend, with highs perhaps in the upper 60s and lows in the 50s. After that the forecast turns fuzzy, but it does seem as though we’re going to see the return of some rain chances by the weekend, quite possibly persisting through Christmas Eve and Day. At some point the next front will come through, but whether this is just before, on, or just after Christmas Day is simply unknowable at this time.

Good morning. The Geminid meteor shower—typically one of the best of the year—peaks tonight into Thursday morning. Unfortunately, we’re going to be mostly clouded in in the greater Houston area. The nearest chance for clear skies liest to the west of areas such as Sealy, or northwest of College Station tonight, and even that appears to be far from a sure thing. There is the possibility for some clearer skies on Thursday evening, although the meteor shower will be less prominent by then. Sorry, stargazers.

Wednesday

We’re seeing some light showers to the southwest of the region this morning, in the Port Lavaca and Victoria area. Some of these rains may work their way into the Houston metro area later this morning for areas to the west of Interstate 45. Any accumulations should be slight. Otherwise it will be, as mentioned above, a mostly cloudy day and night. Highs will reach the mid-60s, with overnight temperatures dropping to around 50 degrees in Houston. Winds will be about 10 mph, out of the east.

Thursday

We’ll probably see a little more sunshine on Thursday, and that should nudge highs into the mid- to upper-60s across the metro area. Winds will also be more prominent out of the east, gusting up to 20 mph, and increasing atmospheric moisture levels ahead of increasing rain chances on Friday. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the mid-50s.

Friday

Friday will start out cloudy, and I think rain chances are going to hold off until at least noon. However, after that time a broad upper-level storm system will move in, and we’ll see showers and thunderstorms marching into the metro area from the west. This activity will likely peak from late afternoon through early Saturday morning, with showers and some heavier downpours. I don’t think we’re looking at anything too extreme, but most of the area should pick up 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall. Highs on Friday will top out in the mid-60s.

Saturday

Lows on Saturday morning will drop into the 50s, and we could see some additional light showers lingering into the late morning hours. Mostly cloudy skies should limit highs in the upper 50s, and winds will be prominent out of the north at 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. So although the rains should be ending by Saturday afternoon, it’s still going to be breezy and cool. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 40s with mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday

We should see clearing skies on Sunday, with highs of around 60 degrees. A persistent northerly breeze will remain, with gusts continuing at 15 to 20 mph. Lows on Sunday night will again drop into the 40s as winds finally start to slacken some.

Next week and Christmas outlook

The first half of next week should see continued chilly weather, with highs in the 60s and nights generally in the 40s. By Wednesday we should start to warm some, with highs approaching 70 degrees toward next weekend. I’d say the forecast for Christmas Eve the Christmas Day remains rather unsettled. We could see some kind of a front coming through the area next weekend (Christmas is on a Monday) and that may bring some precipitation and colder air for the holiday. Or not. There’s just not enough consistency in the forecast models, or overall pattern, to have any confidence. For now my guess would be highs in the 60s on Christmas Day with at least a decent chance of rain. But there’s a long way to go.

Good morning. Houston’s weather will remain temperate for the remainder of the work week, with high temperatures generally in the 60s. Later this week an upper-level low pressure system will bring a healthy chance of rain into the area, especially on Friday night, before we clear out and cool down later on Saturday. Looking way into the future, I’m still seeing the likelihood of mild weather for Christmas—but at 13 days out take that forecast with a pinch of eggnog.

Tuesday

Today will be sunny, with light easterly winds. Highs will generally push into the upper 60s today, and overnight lows will only drop to around 50 degrees. For December, this is definitely mild weather.

Wednesday and Thursday

As atmospheric moisture levels increase a bit, we’ll see at least some partly cloudy skies. This should help to moderate temperatures a bit, holding highs in the mid-60s. We’ll continue to see an easterly flow with winds of about 10 mph and slightly higher gusts. Nights will be mild, in the low 50s generally.

Friday

This should be a mostly cloudy day, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-60s. Rain chances won’t be zero during the daytime, but they should be fairly low before the afternoon hours. Then, especially from Friday evening through Saturday morning, we’ll see widespread showers ahead of, and along with the next front. I don’t think we’re looking at any appreciable flooding, as most areas should pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. However, this rain definitely has the potential to put a damper on any holiday activities you have planned from the period of Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

Saturday

Temperatures will fall to around 50 degrees on Saturday morning, and will struggle to climb out of the 50s during the afternoon hours as northerly winds blow into the area, bringing cooler and drier air. We may see a bit of sunshine on Saturday afternoon as skies start to clear, and any lingering showers move away. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the mid-40s.

Sunday

This will be a mostly sunny day with a high temperature of around 60 degrees. Winds out of the north, gusting to perhaps 15 to 20 mph, will keep things feeling on the chilly side. Sunday night looks rather chilly, with lows in Houston dropping to around 40 degrees.

Next week through the Christmas holiday

The early part of next week will remain on the chilly side, with highs generally in the low 60s and lows in the 40s. But we should see a warming trend toward next weekend, with highs perhaps reaching 70 degrees by Friday or so. And after that? As of now there is no appreciable signal for cooler air, so at this point I expect we’ll see a warmer than normal Christmas, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees. We shall see.

Blowing up a tornado

Last weekend saw a tragic outbreak of tornadoes in Tennessee that killed six people and injured more than 80. Some interesting video has emerged of one of these tornadoes striking a power station, and this appears to disrupt the the circulation of the tornado. This has led to some speculation on whether it’s possible the “blow up” a tornado. Over on The Eyewall, Matt dives into this phenomenon.