This has been an unprecedented year, heat-wise, so it’s difficult to rely too much on past climate and weather norms. However, we have reached the point of the year after which it is extremely unlikely for a hurricane to strike the state of Texas. The historical odds of doing so after the date of September 24 are approximately 1-in-50.

Despite the fact that the Gulf of Mexico remains toasty warm, if there ever were a year to call the season in late September for Texas, this is the season. Wind shear has been exceptionally high over the last few weeks, and it is showing no signs of abating in the near future. And the overall pattern does not appear to support the movement of tropical systems into the Western Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. The bottom line is that history says we’re done, and the current setup says we’re done. Never say never, but we’re probably done.

That is not to say that we still cannot see a tropical storm or a disturbance that brings us rain. That can happen in October, and has in the past. But these are mostly moisture events rather than serious wind or surge events. This also says nothing about the hurricane odds for Louisiana and points east. It remains an active Atlantic season, which we’re tracking for you on The Eyewall. So my advice is this: Although the Atlantic hurricane season will continue for another couple of months, you can breathe a little easier this morning if you live in Texas.

Tuesday

Houston saw some solid, widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday. If you got the rain you needed, that’s great. If you didn’t, well, that’s probably the end of the widespread showers for awhile. We’ll still have some spotty rain chances going forward, but nothing like Monday. For areas south of Interstate 10, chances today are probably about 30 percent, and for areas north they’re much closer to zero percent as the weak front that drove Monday’s storms has moved offshore.

Skies today will be mostly sunny, with a light northeast wind, and highs of around 90 degrees or slightly above. Our air is slightly drier, and this should help low temperatures drop into the low 70s for much of the city, with upper 60s possible for far inland areas.

Wednesday

Another day a lot like Tuesday, with coastal areas seeing a chance of rain, and highs generally in the low 90s.

Thursday and Friday

The overall pattern more or less continues, with highs in the low 90s and sunny skies. Nights, generally, will drop into the mid-70s. Rain chances will continue to hover in the 10 to 20 percent range, so unlikely for most.

Saturday and Sunday

The upper atmosphere will support the flow of some modestly drier air starting this weekend, so that will allow daytime temperatures to rise a bit. But this will also support more rapid cooling in the evenings, and somewhat lower humidity. Look for highs in the low- to mid-90s this weekend, with sunny skies, and lows in the low 70s except near the coast.

Next week

The overall flow of somewhat drier air should continue next week, with highs generally in the low 90s, and nighttime temperatures in the more seasonable low 70s. It won’t be fall, but it’s something a bit nicer than summer. Truth be told, after the summer we experienced, it should feel pretty good outside. There are some hints of fall’s first real front about 10 days from now, but they’re not strong enough for me to have any confidence. We’ll see.

After a torrid weekend—Sunday’s high temperature of 97 degrees broke the all-time record for September 24 of 95 degrees, which had been set just the previous year—some relief is on the way. A weak front will slowly push southward into the city today. This will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a slight chance of hail and damaging winds. In the front’s wake we’ll see slightly cooler days and nights, with drier air making for somewhat more pleasant mornings and evenings.

Monday

As of 6:30 am CT we’re seeing storms fire up near Cypress and Huntsville, and the focus of activity during the morning hours will generally be along and north of Interstate 10. This afternoon and evening the better chances for rain will shift further south and closer to the coast. Overall rain chances are probably about 70 percent, with amounts varying widely.

Some areas will see a tenth or two of an inch, whereas some locations beneath stronger thunderstorms may pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. Stronger thunderstorms will also carry the potential for severe weather, like hail and damaging winds. However, the dynamics are not super supportive for severe weather, so while it’s a possibility, I don’t anticipate bedlam out there.

In terms of temperatures, they’re going to be dependent on cloud coverage and storms this afternoon. Most areas will probably reach the low 90s, however. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-70s for much of the area, with a chance of showers lingering south of Interstate 10.

Tuesday

The aforementioned front is essentially going to stall out along the coast. For areas south of Interstate 10, then, a decent chance of showers will persist on Tuesday. Further inland, however, rain chances will likely be only 10 or 20 percent. Expect daytime highs in the low 90s, with partly sunny skies, and light northeast winds. Lows on Tuesday night should drop into the mid-70s. The air will be slightly (but only very slightly) drier than it has been.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The latter half of the week should see high temperatures generally in the low-90s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Rain chances will probably drop back to 20 percent, again, with this higher likelihood nearer to the coast. Nights will generally fall into the mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The overall atmospheric setup favors a slightly drier flow of air this weekend, and with lower dewpoints we’ll see a couple of effects. First of all, rain chances will be basically zero, with sunny skies. Highs will likely reach the mid-90s, but with the drier air we’ll also cool off more quickly in the evenings, so it should feel a little bit nicer outside in those instances.

Next week

This pattern should more or less continue into next week, however the trend may be toward a bit cooler conditions by the middle of next week. It’s possible that we could see something of a stronger front in about 10 to 14 days. There are hints of it in the models and the overall pattern. But the signal is not particularly strong, so my confidence is low. For now, enjoy your extended summer, Houston.

We got an update from the U.S. Drought Monitor yesterday that would factor in the bulk of the rain we received in our recent scattershot rounds of liquid gold last week. Suffice to say, it did not do much to alleviate the ongoing drought.

Keep in mind, the way these maps are calculated does not always adequately represent the current soil or dryness or greenness of your grass situation. The drought maps focus more on longer term issues related to drought. Those don’t disappear overnight. If we can get some more rain later this weekend or Monday, that will go a short way to helping things a little.

“So, shut up, Matt, and tell me if we will see rain!”

Today & Saturday

First, the heat. The 97° officially reached at IAH Airport on Thursday ties for the 7th latest date we’ve recorded that high of a temperature. The latest? October 2, 1938. That’s not a record I feel like breaking. Unfortunately, it will not get much better today or tomorrow. Look for highs in the mid to upper-90s in the area. Someone might hit 100°, which is just a <chef’s kiss> on this summer. Mornings will be warm and humid, with mid-70s. Equinox? More like Weakquinox.

Rain chances look meager both today and tomorrow, but they are not zero. Hopefully a few spots can squeeze out a cooling downpour.

Sunday

More of the same as Friday and Saturday. Rain chances may be a bit higher in the northern reaches of the Houston region, especially late in the day. But still I would say, at best, isolated to scattered activity.

Monday

So, let’s try to get excited about Monday. That is, if you want rain. We continue to see signs that a cold front will cross into our area, acting as a focal point for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Let’s set some boundaries here. I do not believe that everyone will get meaningful rain from this, however I do believe most people will get at least some rain.

Great news, for sure. Let’s just hope it actually happens as planned. Monday’s temperatures should be warm to start (mid to upper-70s), but the daytime should not be as hot as Friday through Sunday. Look for low-90s before the storms start popping up. Areas south and west of Houston, furthest from the front will probably do mid-90s again. You do need to watch these fronts sometimes because the compressional heating that occur just out ahead of them can sometimes lead to hotter than expected weather. So folks in Brazoria or Fort Bend Counties southward could see another pretty darn hot one Monday before storms (hopefully) roll in.

Tuesday and beyond

The biggest question surrounding next week’s forecast is how far south the front gets before it runs out of gas. If it can push offshore enough and dissolve out there, we likely see some pleasant mornings (low-70s) and lower humidity with highs in the upper-80s to low-90s. But it would also be fairly dry. If the front breaks up at the coast or just inland, we’d still see some cooler temperatures and lower humidity, but not as much as we saw earlier this week. But we’d also keep slight rain chances around most days. So, pick your poison I guess. We’ll watch the forecast through the weekend and see how it evolves.

As for the first true fall front? I’m not yet optimistic or ready to commit to anything, but I do see signs in the October 6 to 10 period that perhaps something could begin to stir. At the least, it’s the most hopeful signal I’ve seen this month, so that’s worth something. Stay tuned.

Tropics

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 will bear down on the East Coast this weekend with tropical storm conditions, tidal flooding, and heavy rain expected from the Carolinas through New Jersey or Long Island. A system in the deep Atlantic may pass just north of the islands next week. For us? The Gulf looks very, very quiet. Be sure to visit our companion site, The Eyewall for a full rundown on tropical doings.

Good morning. Houston faces four more hot, sunny, and humid days that will carry us through the weekend. However, unlike earlier this summer when high pressure remained intransigent, this high pressure system will start to shift eastward by this weekend. This will allow a weak front to move into, and stall over the Houston region, providing some slight relief in terms of rain showers and moderately cooler temperatures.

Thursday

Skies will be mostly sunny today, with highs in the mid-90s for most of the area, with some inland points possibly reaching the upper 90s. Winds will be light, out of the southeast, at 5 to 10 mph. There is a very slight chance of showers or thunderstorms, perhaps 10 percent, this afternoon. Temperatures tonight will be sticky and warm, only briefly dropping below 80 degrees.

Friday

The last day of the work week will be a lot like Thursday, albeit with a bit higher chance of rain. I’d look for the possibility of thunderstorms to develop during the late afternoon or early evening hours, with perhaps a 20 or 30 percent likelihood of that happening. It’s something we’ll keep an eye on for Friday night lights, and this being Homecoming season for many schools.

Saturday and Sunday

At 1:49 am CT on Saturday we’ll reach the September equinox, the point at which the Sun crosses the equator and heads south. This is the traditional start of fall, and the march toward winter in the Northern Hemisphere, but Mother Nature will care not a single whit this year.

The weekend just looks hot and mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s for much of the city, and the possibility of upper 90s further inland. Rain chances, again, will be on the order of 20 to 30 percent each day, but mostly it’s just gonna be sunny outside. Nights will continue to be warm.

Next week

As I mentioned above, a weak front is going to move toward the region by the end of the weekend, and this will change our weather somewhat for next week. I’m afraid I still don’t have great confidence in that that means. It could lead to widespread rainfall accumulations for much of the area in excess of 1 inch, or it could be a tenth of an inch, or two. Monday will have the best chance of rain. The front also could lead to nighttime lows in the lower 70s, or we might get lucky and drop into the upper 60s. At the least, it should mean highs fall into the low 90s for awhile.