We got an update from the U.S. Drought Monitor yesterday that would factor in the bulk of the rain we received in our recent scattershot rounds of liquid gold last week. Suffice to say, it did not do much to alleviate the ongoing drought.

Keep in mind, the way these maps are calculated does not always adequately represent the current soil or dryness or greenness of your grass situation. The drought maps focus more on longer term issues related to drought. Those don’t disappear overnight. If we can get some more rain later this weekend or Monday, that will go a short way to helping things a little.

“So, shut up, Matt, and tell me if we will see rain!”

Today & Saturday

First, the heat. The 97° officially reached at IAH Airport on Thursday ties for the 7th latest date we’ve recorded that high of a temperature. The latest? October 2, 1938. That’s not a record I feel like breaking. Unfortunately, it will not get much better today or tomorrow. Look for highs in the mid to upper-90s in the area. Someone might hit 100°, which is just a <chef’s kiss> on this summer. Mornings will be warm and humid, with mid-70s. Equinox? More like Weakquinox.

Rain chances look meager both today and tomorrow, but they are not zero. Hopefully a few spots can squeeze out a cooling downpour.

Sunday

More of the same as Friday and Saturday. Rain chances may be a bit higher in the northern reaches of the Houston region, especially late in the day. But still I would say, at best, isolated to scattered activity.

Monday

So, let’s try to get excited about Monday. That is, if you want rain. We continue to see signs that a cold front will cross into our area, acting as a focal point for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Let’s set some boundaries here. I do not believe that everyone will get meaningful rain from this, however I do believe most people will get at least some rain.

Great news, for sure. Let’s just hope it actually happens as planned. Monday’s temperatures should be warm to start (mid to upper-70s), but the daytime should not be as hot as Friday through Sunday. Look for low-90s before the storms start popping up. Areas south and west of Houston, furthest from the front will probably do mid-90s again. You do need to watch these fronts sometimes because the compressional heating that occur just out ahead of them can sometimes lead to hotter than expected weather. So folks in Brazoria or Fort Bend Counties southward could see another pretty darn hot one Monday before storms (hopefully) roll in.

Tuesday and beyond

The biggest question surrounding next week’s forecast is how far south the front gets before it runs out of gas. If it can push offshore enough and dissolve out there, we likely see some pleasant mornings (low-70s) and lower humidity with highs in the upper-80s to low-90s. But it would also be fairly dry. If the front breaks up at the coast or just inland, we’d still see some cooler temperatures and lower humidity, but not as much as we saw earlier this week. But we’d also keep slight rain chances around most days. So, pick your poison I guess. We’ll watch the forecast through the weekend and see how it evolves.

As for the first true fall front? I’m not yet optimistic or ready to commit to anything, but I do see signs in the October 6 to 10 period that perhaps something could begin to stir. At the least, it’s the most hopeful signal I’ve seen this month, so that’s worth something. Stay tuned.

Tropics

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 will bear down on the East Coast this weekend with tropical storm conditions, tidal flooding, and heavy rain expected from the Carolinas through New Jersey or Long Island. A system in the deep Atlantic may pass just north of the islands next week. For us? The Gulf looks very, very quiet. Be sure to visit our companion site, The Eyewall for a full rundown on tropical doings.

Good morning. Houston faces four more hot, sunny, and humid days that will carry us through the weekend. However, unlike earlier this summer when high pressure remained intransigent, this high pressure system will start to shift eastward by this weekend. This will allow a weak front to move into, and stall over the Houston region, providing some slight relief in terms of rain showers and moderately cooler temperatures.

Thursday

Skies will be mostly sunny today, with highs in the mid-90s for most of the area, with some inland points possibly reaching the upper 90s. Winds will be light, out of the southeast, at 5 to 10 mph. There is a very slight chance of showers or thunderstorms, perhaps 10 percent, this afternoon. Temperatures tonight will be sticky and warm, only briefly dropping below 80 degrees.

Friday

The last day of the work week will be a lot like Thursday, albeit with a bit higher chance of rain. I’d look for the possibility of thunderstorms to develop during the late afternoon or early evening hours, with perhaps a 20 or 30 percent likelihood of that happening. It’s something we’ll keep an eye on for Friday night lights, and this being Homecoming season for many schools.

Saturday and Sunday

At 1:49 am CT on Saturday we’ll reach the September equinox, the point at which the Sun crosses the equator and heads south. This is the traditional start of fall, and the march toward winter in the Northern Hemisphere, but Mother Nature will care not a single whit this year.

The weekend just looks hot and mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s for much of the city, and the possibility of upper 90s further inland. Rain chances, again, will be on the order of 20 to 30 percent each day, but mostly it’s just gonna be sunny outside. Nights will continue to be warm.

Next week

As I mentioned above, a weak front is going to move toward the region by the end of the weekend, and this will change our weather somewhat for next week. I’m afraid I still don’t have great confidence in that that means. It could lead to widespread rainfall accumulations for much of the area in excess of 1 inch, or it could be a tenth of an inch, or two. Monday will have the best chance of rain. The front also could lead to nighttime lows in the lower 70s, or we might get lucky and drop into the upper 60s. At the least, it should mean highs fall into the low 90s for awhile.

Good morning. Our region has enjoyed a few days with modestly drier air, but unfortunately that party is coming to an end today. We’re headed back into the mid-90s for the rest of the week, with ample sunshine and humidity. This pattern will change late in the weekend as as weak front approaches the area and likely stalls out, increasing rain chances and bringing some slightly cooler temperatures to start next week.

Wednesday

Our overall air mass remains slightly drier than normal this morning, but that will change as the onshore flow really kicks into gear today. This will bump up dewpoints into the 70s, and my friends let me tell you, that is Houston humid. Despite the increasing levels of moisture in the atmosphere, our skies should remain mostly sunny today as highs top out in the mid-90s for most of the region away from the coast. Winds will come from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Rain chances are essentially zero.

Thursday and Friday

We’re going to remain warm and humid, with highs generally in the mid-90s. A few far-inland locations may even ‘luck’ into the upper 90s. But there is something of a limit on how hot our temperatures can get this year, due to day length and solar angle. At the height of summer, the Sun reached an altitude of 84 degrees above Houston (the zenith, recall, is 90 degrees). At this time of year the solar angle is 60 degrees. It’s still going to be hot, though. We’ll also see some isolated showers, with perhaps a 20 percent chance of rain each day. Lows are going to be fairly sultry, only briefly dropping into the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring more of the same, with highs in the mid-90s, mostly. Rain chances each day will be on the order of 20 to 30 percent, with sunny skies. Nights will be warm. The aforementioned front is going to be dragging down toward the region later on Sunday, but right now I don’t think it will have too much of an effect on the weekend forecast.

Next week

The arrival of the front should increase cloud cover and rain chances to start next week. There are still a lot of details I’m not particularly confident in, such as the strength of the front, where it will stall out, and precisely how long it is going to hang around. But the bottom line is that we should see some slightly cooler days, with highs in the low 90s, and fairly healthy rain chances through the first half of next week. If I’m ballparking things, I’d set expectations at 0.5 to 1 inch of rain, but that’s kind of a hand-waving guess at this point.

Good morning. Much of the Houston region has fallen into the 60s this morning, and it feels quite pleasant outside. Unfortunately this early preview of fall won’t last, and we’re going to be headed back to warmer days and more humid nights for awhile.

That’s not to say our weather will be exceptionally hot. It won’t. But increasingly, I don’t think our first reasonably strong fall front is coming this month. That’s happened plenty of times before—the average date of Houston’s first significant front is around the last week of September. But it’s still disappointing that Fall Day remains a ways away.

Tuesday

Today’s weather isn’t bad though, by any stretch. After our pleasing start, highs today will climb to around 90 degrees with sunny skies. Winds will shift to become southeasterly, and this will start to bring a more pronounced and humid flow into the region, although this afternoon should still feel somewhat drier than normal. We should still be able to squeeze out one more night in the low- to mid-70s before we warm back up completely.

Wednesday

As high pressure begins to strengthen some, we’ll see more humidity and high temperatures will nudge up into the low-90s. Like on Tuesday, rain chances will be near zero. Overnight lows are likely to only drop into the mid- to upper-70s, unfortunately.

Thursday and Friday

We will see mostly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-90s to end the work week. With the moister atmosphere Houston should start to see a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, perhaps on the order of 20 percent. Any storms that do develop should pass rather quickly. Lows will remain muggy, in the mid- to upper-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see continued warm and muggy weather, with Sunday likely the warmest day as highs reach the mid-90s. It looks like a weak (again, a very weak one) front will push toward the area this weekend on Sunday. This could drive some rain showers on Sunday or Sunday evening, and then bring some slightly cooler and drier nights with it. I wouldn’t expect anything too robust, but it should bring daytime and nighttime temperatures down a bit. Highs for the most part look to be in the low 90s for much of next week.

A couple of programming notes

I’ve been working on a post summarizing our summer weather and putting it into historical context. Look for that to publish later this week. Also, we’re really getting near the end of the Texas hurricane season, but I’m not quite ready to make that call yet. Soon, probably.