Good morning. Houston faces the first of two days of fairly widespread showers, and the potential for some thunderstorms. Today and Thursday will offer a nice reprieve from the very high heat the region experienced in June. Temperatures will start to rise again this weekend, before we’re back in the upper 90s next week.

Before jumping into a detailed forecast, I want to go through a few housekeeping notes. The social network site Twitter used to be an amazing place to share weather information in real-time. However in the months steps have been taken to end the free dissemination of information, especially by National Weather Service accounts. The site has increasingly been gated and walled off, and is clearly evolving into something that will be not free and open and accessible to everyone. So our social media outreach strategy must evolve as well.

Today I wanted to remind readers of the four main ways to access our forecasts, and provide an update on our social media channels.

• By visiting our website, SpaceCityWeather.com, any time, day or night. A Spanish-language version is available at Tiempo Ciudad Espacial.
• By subscribing to our newsletter (the form is on the right side of this page on a desktop, but you have to scroll down on mobile to find it). There is no BS with our newsletter; just every post we do, directly into your inbox.
• By downloading our app for Apple iOS or Android. Speaking of which, we have a brand new version of the app, with some new features and bugs squashed, coming within a week or two. Look for more details on that soon. The price remains the same: $0.00.
• And finally, there’s social media. We’re on Facebook, Instagram and yes, for now at least, Twitter. We’ve also just created a Blue Sky account, and likely will start a Threads account when it launches this week (Threads is a Twitter-clone from Facebook). We’re considering Mastodon as well, but I have to tell you, this is a lot to keep track of. As noted above, we’re still navigating this landscape and trying to decide which sites work best for our messaging, and reaching people during times of inclement weather.

OK, now on to the forecast.

Wednesday

In the absence of high pressure, our region is open to an influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Already this morning we see showers starting to fire up offshore, and with daytime heating these should migrate inland later this morning. The peak time for showers and thunderstorms will come this afternoon. You probably have about a 60 percent chance of seeing rain today. Thanks to the clouds, and rain-cooled air, most of the region should see highs of only around 90 degrees today, although it will of course remain plenty humid outside. Winds will be light, out of the south.

Thursday

Our chances for rain will peak on Thursday, as the upper-air pattern becomes most favorable for rising air. The coast will likely see the highest accumulations, but the entire area should see at least some modest accumulations. I’m not particularly concerned about flooding, as I think most of the area will see between 0.5 to 1.5 inches, and our soils are quite dry. Highs Thursday may not even reach 90 degrees in some locations. Winds will again be light, from the south.

Friday

As high pressure starts building in again, we’ll see rain chances start to tamp back down. Look for partly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect mostly sunny conditions this weekend, with highs likely in the low- to mid-90s. Rain chances aren’t going away entirely, but we’re likely back down to a 10 or 20 percent chance, daily. Bottom line, it should be a hot, but not exceedingly hot July weekend. Conditions will be fairly typical for this time of year, actually.

Next week

Most of next week looks hot, with highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees for much of the area, and mostly sunny skies. Rain chances will be very low, but perhaps not zero. The bottom line is that if you like your weather on the sane side of blazing hot, enjoy the next few days.

Good morning, and I hope everyone has a great Fourth of July! In observance of the the holiday, today’s post will be fairly brief, with us returning to normal operations on Wednesday. As for the weather, our overall thinking on this week’s forecast has not changed too much. We’re heading toward a rainier pattern for the mid-week, followed by hotter and sunnier weather this weekend and next week.

Fourth of July

Skies will be partly sunny today, with highs in the mid-90s. We are starting to see the development of some showers off the Texas coast, in the Gulf of Mexico, at around sunrise. These will gradually transition inland today, with the bulk of showers and thunderstorms developing between late morning and late afternoon. Your chance of seeing rain is about 40 percent. The good news is that we generally expect these showers to clear out this evening, with partly cloudy skies and lows of around 80 degrees tonight. The viewing forecast for fireworks looks fine fine, if sweaty, as is customary in Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

The details are still to be determined, but we’re looking at a pair of cloudy and cooler days, with highs likely only reaching about 90 degrees, give or take. Both days should see widespread showers and thunderstorms as tropical moisture pushes inland from the Gulf of Mexico, with lesser chances overnight. Look for accumulations, on average, of 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with the higher totals more prevalent toward the coast. This will be our coolest, and likely wettest weather for awhile for the foreseeable future.

Friday and beyond

Rain chances don’t go away on Friday and Saturday, but they begin to diminish as high pressure starts to build back over the area. Look for highs in the mid-90s to start out, pushing back into the upper-90s toward 100 degrees by the middle of next week.

See you tomorrow!

Before looking ahead to our weather in the days ahead, let’s briefly look back at June. The first 10 days of the month were relatively cool, with below normal temperatures and plenty of rainfall. Then our pattern dramatically shifted for the latter two thirds of the month, with highs generally in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, and extremely uncomfortable weather. Overall, with an average temperature of 85.1 degrees, this June tied 1980 for the sixth warmest of all time in Houston.

As we saw on Sunday afternoon and evening, the high pressure that dominated much of the last three weeks of our weather in June has moved off, allowing for slightly cooler weather and healthy rain chances. This pattern will persist for most of this week before high pressure starts to assert control again by next weekend.

Monday

High temperatures today will be about 95 degrees, which is hot, but not as hot as we’ve been. Skies will be partly sunny later this afternoon, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Rain chances are probably about 40 percent, with the majority of showers developing near the coast this afternoon and then migrating inland. As we saw on Sunday, some thunderstorms are possible. Winds will be generally light, out of the south or southeast, at about 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees, or just below.

Tuesday

Conditions will be more or less the same for the Fourth of July, albeit with slightly better shower coverage. Let’s call it a 50 percent chance of rain. Fortunately, it does appear as though most of these showers will be diurnal in nature, assisted by daytime heating. This means that by the evening hours, and particularly after sunset, the majority of rain should be ending. This should allow for fireworks to proceed in most locations.

Wednesday and Thursday

Rain chances will peak during the middle of the week as low pressure and tropical moisture seep into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. A majority of the area should see showers and thunderstorms on these days, with accumulations generally averaging from 0.5 to 1.5 inches, although there will be plenty of outliers. Partly cloudy skies and rain-cooled air should moderate temperatures, keeping them in the low-90s for most of the area.

Friday

At some point the rain party is going to end, and that may happen as soon as Friday. Expect a partly sunny day with perhaps a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs will be in the mid-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

High pressure will start to build this weekend, and this should lead to a pair of mostly sunny days with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Rain chances don’t look to be zero, but they’re probably not above 20 percent for both days. It’s going to depend on how quickly the high pressure builds over the area.

Next week

The majority of next week looks fairly hot as high pressure reigns, and should peak by Wednesday or Thursday. Heat advisories are likely to be necessary once again. Rain chances look accordingly low for much of the week.

Today marks our 18th straight day of heat advisories or heat warnings. We close June on the same note we’ve been singing (with rampant falsetto) since mid-month. Heat waves are often judged by how many temperature records are broken. So have there been many temperature records broken the last couple weeks? The answer is not really.

For the month of June, through yesterday, we set or tied a total of zero record highs at Bush, two at Hobby, none at Galveston, and none in College Station. Despite the general lack of record highs, we’ve managed to reach a frequency and consistency of 110+ heat index values that is rare for this region. It’s why we emphasized that this would be an abnormal heat wave for us.

Nighttimes have been more intriguing, with seven record warm minimum temperatures set or tied at Bush, seven at Hobby, none in Galveston, and five in College Station. The lack of any nighttime relief really contributes to defining how rough this has been.

Fortunately, we are past the peak of things it seems and we can start discussing how this will change.

Today and tomorrow

More of the same. Sunny and hot, with highs in the upper-90s and lows near 80, and a near zero chance of rain. Heat advisories will likely be needed for one more day tomorrow.

Sunday & Monday

This will be the transition period. Look for generally more of the same again. Expect mid to upper-90s for highs and upper-70s to near 80 for lows. However, the new wrinkle on these days will be rain chances. Sunday looks meager at best and mostly south and east of Houston. Let’s call it a 5 to 10 percent chance of a shower Sunday. That’s better than zero, but the odds remain stacked against you. By Monday, that rain chance should improve to 20 percent or so. Better!

Fourth of July Tuesday

This will be the trickiest day, because I could see our rain chances fizzling here or being something like 10 to 20 percent again. Or, coverage could increase a fair bit during the afternoon hours, with not everyone seeing rain but some folks needing to scurry indoors for a time. Let’s call it about a 30 percent chance of rain on Tuesday afternoon, with the highest odds south and east of Houston; higher chances than Monday but still relatively low. As of now, I’d expect that most evening events will be able to go off without issue.

Look for mid-90s or a little hotter on Tuesday with evening temperatures generally dropping back into the mid to upper 80s for fireworks or other activities.

Wednesday through Friday

We get a big boost in moisture beginning Wednesday, and this should translate to more scattered to numerous showers and storms through the late week period. While it’s tough to pin down the exact timing of rain chances each day, I would say that the chance is at least 50 to 60 percent on all three days. So there’s a good chance your neighborhood should see at least some rain at some point later next week.

Due to the clouds and showers, we should see high temperatures ease back into the low (!) or mid-90s at worst, more seasonable for early July. Nighttimes should be more firmly in the 70s. Eric will be back in the saddle Monday. Until then, stay cool!