Today was certainly a day. First off, we want to express our thoughts and best wishes to those impacted by today’s tornadoes, and we hope that the recovery process presents the fewest amount of headaches that are possible.

Tornadoes of that scale and length are not common in Houston. Since 1993, we’ve had a number of “strong” (EF-2+) tornadoes in the Houston area, most of which have been on the eastern side of the city. Today’s tornado was no exception. Here’s a map of tornadoes since 1993 that are EF-2 or greater. Only one in the immediate area rated an EF-3, which was a short tracked twister near Shoreacres in 2002.

In the tornado records, an EF-2 tornado has never struck the Houston area in January. Why 1993 as a cutoff? Because November 1992 had the king of modern Houston tornado outbreaks, including an F4 in Channelview, which we wrote about a few years ago.

If you’re curious, here’s a map of all known “strong” tornadoes in the Houston region since 1950.

The National Weather Service will be sending out survey teams tomorrow morning to assess the damage and assign a rating to the tornadoes. So we will see if it was indeed a “strong” tornado or not. Remember, the rating is determined by a number of factors, not the least of which is building construction. Some poorly constructed, smaller buildings can be obliterated in a mere EF-1 tornado. Based on the initial photos of damage, I am guessing it will be at least an EF-2. But the NWS folks are the experts on this, and they’ll make that call.

Today also marked the first time a Tornado Emergency has been issued in Houston. We all know about Flash Flood Emergencies from recent years. But Tornado Emergencies certainly represent a new kind of horror for our area. They are rare and only issued when there is a confirmed, likely strong to catastrophic tornado ongoing in a populated area. If ever there were a day to issue one in Houston, today was the day. Hopefully we don’t see that again for many years.

Not to be outdone, the rainfall today was tremendous for January. We still have flooding ongoing out by Mound Creek and Little Cypress Creek in western Harris County. Several bayous ended up at bankfull or even out of their banks today. We mentioned flooding. We mentioned heavy rain. But we probably could have been a little more aggressive on the rainfall aspect of things. Today certainly qualified as a Stage 1 flooding event on our flood scale.

At any rate, we’ll know more about today’s events tomorrow. On a personal note, I want to thank the folks at the National Weather Service, as well as our other colleagues across media here in Houston for a very strong, effective messaging campaign today. Collectively, our messaging and the issuance of a Tornado Emergency by NWS no doubt helped protect lives and property in the Houston area today. For us here at SCW, this is truly why we exist. I saw several comments say that “we saw Eric and Matt really ramp up their messaging today, so it was concerning.” That’s exactly why we operate how we do. We want to be the jovial, informative but not in your face meteorologists 90-95 percent of the time. But on days like today, we get serious and down to business. Houston gets a lot of severe weather “days,” but most of them are low-end potential. They get a lot of chatter and sometimes some hype, and yes maybe on a couple of those days something happens. But we knew this had a unique high end potential for this area, and at least in a couple parts of the area, this potential was likely realized. We are grateful it was not worse. As we always say, we are here to help serve the community, and tomorrow we will be back to our normal, mostly boring selves. But when it’s really, truly time to stand up, act, and pay attention, we will make sure that message gets across. Thanks for your continued loyalty and readership. -Matt

Good afternoon. As of about 12:45 pm CT, the main line of severe weather associated with a cold front is draped across the region from El Campo to Sealy to The Woodlands, and it is steadily progressing eastward. As expected, this system is bringing wind gusts above 40 mph, heavy rainfall, and at least one confirmed tornado and multiple other warnings. We are starting to see some street flooding in areas west of Houston, and I expect this to persist for the next few hours as rainfall rates reach 1 to 2 inches per hour. This heavy rainfall will spread into central and southeastern Houston over the next couple of hours.

The main line of storms should reach areas such as Sugar Land, downtown Houston, and Bush Intercontinental Airport by around 1 to 1:30 pm, and push down closer to the coast, through areas such as Pearland, Clear Lake and Baytown by around 3 pm. The system should be fully offshore, with clearing skies area-wide, by 4:30 to 5 pm. Some low-lying street flooding may persist through the evening rush hour due to the heavy rainfall, however.

I realize that the timing of these storms is extremely inconvenient for schools and day cares and other institutions that let out during afternoon hours. I cannot say much to that effect, but if your school is located inland of Interstate 69/Highway 59, conditions should be clearing out by around 3 pm, and if you live on the coastal side of this highway, this probably will be about the time you see the worst conditions.

So far this event is proceeding just about as we expected, with nasty winds, rains, and the threat of tornadoes. I expect the latter threat to peak from about 1 to 3 pm and then gradually diminish, with the rains following suit. Heavy winds will be with us throughout the night, shifting from the west to northwest overnight. If you can stay off the roads this afternoon, you should. If you have to venture out, have a radar map handy, and a way to receive emergency alerts.

Some cold fronts come into Houston like lambs. Today’s front, however, will be a lion. The prime time for severe weather today will run from late morning to about 4 pm as the front barrels into the region. A lot of the ingredients that we look for when it comes to severe weather, including instability and an energetic atmosphere, will be in place ahead of, and along with the front today. We’ll discuss the threats in greater detail below.

In the big picture, a strong upper-level system will track toward Texas, inducing a low pressure system at the surface that will create turbulent conditions. Ahead of this low, we will see strong southerly winds this morning, gusting up to 40 mph. These winds will shift to come from the west and then northwest as the front passes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this morning ahead of the front, but the main line of storms will likely bring the most severe weather. In terms of timing, I expect the front to reach a line from Katy to Tomball to Conroe by 1 to 3 pm, push into the central Houston corridor from Sugar Land to downtown to Kingwood from 2 to 4 pm, and push off the coast from 4 to 6 pm. Let’s consider the three main threats.

Damaging winds: In response to the low pressure system, expect sustained winds of 30 mph or higher, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph across much of the area, especially south of Interstate 10. These winds may be strong enough to cause isolated power outages. Any outdoor furniture prone to blowing around should be put away, if possible. These kinds of winds will knock down tree limbs as well.

Heavy rain: Expect 1 to 3 inches of rain for most areas, with isolated totals of 4 inches or higher possible in areas that see storms this morning ahead of the front. The bad news is that, with the main line of storms, rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour are possible. The good news is that the system will move fairly quickly from west to east, clearing the area. Some street flooding is possible, but I’m hopeful that roads will be clearing in terms of water by rush hour in the metro area.

Tornadoes: There is plenty of instability, lift, and shear in the atmosphere today. A lot of the parameters that we look to for tornadic activity are lighting up, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 10. But with that said, the overall environment is not ideal for tornado formation such as one might see in Oklahoma later in the spring—just supportive. The most likely time for this activity is from noon to 4 pm today, so please be weather aware at that time. Your overall odds of being impacted by a tornado are quite low, but these are high-consequence phenomena worth paying attention to.

Be weather aware: Space City Weather will provide additional updates today as warranted. We also will be providing notifications through our app (Apple version, Android version) of any significant tornadoes that form. Other good resources include NOAA weather radio and emergency alerts from the National Weather Service.

Tuesday

As noted above, today will be a windy, rainy, and nasty day. High temperatures ahead of the front will reach the upper 60s beneath mostly cloudy skies. After the front, winds will quickly shift to come from the west, and then the northwest, bringing much cooler and drier air into the region. Temperatures tonight will drop to about 40 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions further inland. With brisk, gusty winds, it will “feel” like freezing temperatures outside late tonight with the wind chill.

Wednesday

This will be a breezy and cold day, with sunny skies and highs in the mid-50s. Winds will still be gusty, up to 25 mph out of the north. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 30s.

Thursday

Winds will finally start to slacken some on Thursday, at just 5 to 10 mph, and we can expect to see highs in the mid-50s. With lighter winds, Thursday night should be the coldest of the week, with lows possibly dropping to freezing for far inland areas.

Friday

Look for mostly sunny weather, with highs around 60 degrees. As the southerly flow reestablishes itself, lows will only drop to around 50 degrees on Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

I’m afraid the weekend outlook is not great. Both days have solid rain chances, but the most likely time is probably from Saturday evening through Sunday, with accumulations of perhaps 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall. Highs will be near 70 degrees by Sunday before some sort of front cools us down a little bit.

Our next update will be posted no later than 1:30 pm CT.

Hi all. We’re jumping in here with a quick update on the storm system associated with a cold front that will move through Houston on Tuesday afternoon. Put simply, we are more concerned about the potential for tornadoes to develop ahead of, and along with a line of showers and thunderstorms at that time.

This morning, if you recall, we said we would assess whether a Stage 1 flood alert is warranted for Tuesday’s storms. After a discussion, Matt and I don’t think that is necessary. Most of the region will likely see 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, which is manageable for area roadways, even if it comes down in some heavy bursts. Some areas may see higher totals, and low-lying areas may briefly flood. But these storms should sweep through the area during the afternoon and then be gone. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the main line of storms. However, we expect the main event to come with the line itself, which should reach west (Katy) and northwest areas (Tomball) around 2 to 4 pm, downtown an hour later, and push off the coast by around sunset.

Our post this morning also mentioned strong wind gusts, particularly along and south of Interstate 10. This forecast remains the same. Areas such as Brazoria and Galveston counties may see gusts up to 50 mph. What has changed is the tornado threat. High resolutions models indicate conditions may become favorable for rotation, which increases the likelihood that tornadoes may form. This threat is reflected in an update from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center this afternoon, which highlights an area of greatest risk south of Houston (yellow area in the map above). I know the mention of “tornadoes” freaks some people out, but it is important to remember that twisters in our region are usually short-lived, and have fairly narrow tracks. Your odds of being directly impacted are rather low, even during an event such as we will see tomorrow.

The worst of this should be over for most of the metro area by the evening rush hour on Tuesday, but that will be something to monitor. The bottom line is this: Tomorrow is a day to be weather aware in the Houston community, especially from around noon to sunset. After that time skies will be clearing, and sharply colder air moving in from the north. Then we’ll get a few days of very solid winter-like weather.

Our next update will be posted by 7 am CT on Tuesday.