Good morning. Based upon the last three decades of weather, the historically warmest time of year for Houston runs from July 29 through August 12. During this approximately two-week period, the city of Houston averages a high temperature of 96 degrees, and a low of 76, at Bush Intercontinental Airport. And if we drill down further, the climatological peak of summer during the last 30 years has come on August 6, which was Saturday.

Although we cannot say anything definitive about the rest of summer in Houston, we continue to see indications that conditions will not be excessively hot like we saw in June and July. Nevertheless, summer is still summer in Houston, and during the next four to eight weeks, as we await fall’s first front, you can expect plenty of heat and humidity. We’re also at our greatest risk of hurricanes, historically. So, fun.

Monday

After wetter conditions for some areas on Friday and Saturday, high pressure has begun to assert control over the region again. Accordingly, we’ll see highs near 100 degrees across much of the city today to go along with partly to mostly sunny skies. The sea breeze will produce a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers this afternoon, or during the early evening hours. Winds will generally be light, out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight should fall briefly below 80 degrees.

Tuesday

This day will be a lot like Monday.

Wednesday

The upper Texas coast should start to feel the influence of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, with an increase in cloud cover and rain chances bumping up to about 40 or 50 percent. Look for highs in the mid-90s.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be cloudy and cooler days, with highs perhaps peaking at 90 degrees, or in the low 90s. We’ll see healthy rain chances in the 50 to 70 percent chance each day, with most areas likely picking up between 0.25 and 0.75 inch, and higher isolated totals. As of now totals look higher for coastal counties, but I don’t think inland areas will be entirely shut out.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

More typical summertime weather should return this weekend, with highs in the mid-90s, partly cloudy skies, and perhaps a 30 percent chance of rain. At this point it appears probable that we’ll start to see the influence of high pressure, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s returning for much of the area during the early part of next week.

Tropics

Expect to see some chatter about a tropical disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic over the next few days. But really, this is not something we need concern ourselves with because a) ultimately this system is going to struggle with wind shear over the central Atlantic Ocean, and b) the steering currents are likely to pull it north before the system approaches any landmasses. Overall, the tropics remain is a pretty quiet posture as we head toward mid-August. Matt will have more in his weekly tropics update on Tuesday.

We officially topped off at 101° yesterday for the third straight day, but we think the next few days will feature more tolerable temperatures, as rain chances inch upward. And it’s needed, as drought has expanded across the Houston area with 12 percent of the area in exceptional drought (level 4/4).

This was underscored by the deadly grass fire in the Cypress area yesterday. Grass fires can happen in the Houston area, so please use caution, even if you get a good bit of rain in the coming days.

Today

With a disturbance in the middle levels of the atmosphere moving toward Matagorda Bay, we are already seeing numerous showers and storms develop — over the Gulf.

As the day goes on, we’ll see rainfall expand onshore. I still don’t think everyone will see rain today, but most places near the coast should see showers, with more scattered coverage as you go inland from there. Storms should move slowly but steadily today, so areas with the most persistent rains could see an inch or two, while some neighborhoods will only hear distant thunder. But coverage will be greater than it has been in recent days.

With clouds and showers nearby, look for highs ranging from the upper 80s at the coast to low 90s in Houston to middle or upper 90s to the north and west.

Weekend

We’re going to maintain pretty healthy rain chances into Saturday. Again, not everyone will see rain tomorrow, but there should be coverage along the lines of what we see today; initially at the coast in the morning, spreading inland as the day progresses. Rain totals will range from nothing to an inch or two in the most persistent or slowest moving storms. Morning lows in the 70s will give way to daytime highs similar to today, with upper-80s to low-90s for Houston south and east, building to the upper-90s to near 100 or so from Columbus to College Station to Madisonville.

Sunday looks to see very similar weather, with hit and miss storms and temperatures about where they will be on Saturday.

Overall, rain totals should average a quarter to half-inch or so across the area, with some neighborhoods seeing several inches of rain and others seeing next to nothing. Yes, someone will end up disappointed from this period of higher rain chances, but it’s our best opportunity in some time.

Early next week

Rain chances should ebb heading into Monday and Tuesday, or at least be more co-located with the daily sea breeze off the Gulf. So coverage should diminish but not disappear completely. Temperatures will respond, back up to the low-90s along the Gulf, mid-90s in Houston, and near 100 well inland.

Later next week

The back half of next week is sort of in flux right now. One model (the Euro) is trying to bring a front into our area, which would enhance shower and storm coverage, though it would be unlikely to bring heat relief. The GFS keeps that away, but it does have higher rain chances later next week. Bottom line? We need a couple days to sort out late next week. But expect some rain chances and hot (but not extremely hot) weather.

Tropics

All remains quiet into early next week.

Houston now has officially recorded 20 100-degree days this year, which is enough to tie us for fourth all-time for any calendar year. The bad news is that we’re going to see yet another day with widespread triple-digit temperatures across the region today. The good news is that this may be the last one for at least several days with relief on the horizon.

Thursday

It will be another scorcher as high pressure drives inland temperatures above 100 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be out of the south at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. Like on Wednesday, we’ll see some scattered showers and thunderstorms fire up along the sea breeze, but overall chances are only about 10 or 20 percent. Overnight lows will again struggle to drop below 80 degrees.

Friday

As high pressure retreats, an upper-level low pressure system will help usher in a surge a tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies, and bump up rain chances for areas that are either east of Interstate 45, along the coast, or both. We’re talking about a 60 or 70 percent chance of rain for these areas, with lesser chances further inland and westward. Overall accumulations won’t be above a few tenths of an inch for most locations, but some areas should see bullseyes of 1 to 2 inches. Highs will be dependent upon clouds and rain, but should hold in the low-90s for much of the area.

Saturday and Sunday

Both weekend days should see highs in the low- to mid-90s, with mostly sunny skies. Rain chances will remain elevated for coastal areas, especially on Saturday. But we’re not looking at anything approaching a washout as showers will be hit or miss, and should move through quickly.

Next week

This should be, dare I say it, a decent week for August? For the most part we’re going to see high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s, and the most likely outcome is that high pressure does not build back over the region. Rather, we should see enough moisture for at least a 30 percent, if not higher, chance of rain each day. For August, man, I’ll take it.

High pressure will continue to dominate our weather for a couple of more days before a low-pressure system brings some relief on Friday. Accordingly, instead of highs reaching 100 degrees for much of the region, we should be down in the low- to mid-90s, along with some decent rain chances this weekend.

Wednesday

For today, however, we can expect widespread highs of 100 degrees away from the coast as the Houston region bakes beneath mostly sunny skies. Rain chances are about 20 percent along the coast this afternoon, and perhaps 10 percent for inland areas. Winds will be out of the south at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. The city will struggle to fall below 80 degrees tonight.

Thursday

More of the same.

Friday

An upper-level low pressure system will move into the area, and this will also bring a surge a tropical moisture. As a result we’re going to see a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms. I’d put chances for areas east of Interstate 45 as high as 60 or 70 percent, whereas the potential for rain west of the freeway is probably closer to 50 percent. Accumulations will probably average a few tenths of an inch, but there will be pockets of higher totals. As a result of the rain and pattern change, highs on Friday may top out in the low 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances of 40 percent, or so, will linger through the weekend but coverage should be less than on Friday. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny, and as a result we can probably expect high temperatures to reach the mid-90s.

Next week

Most of next week looks to see fairly typical weather for August. Climatologically, early-to-mid August often is the hottest time of year for Houston, so this means highs generally in the mid-90s for Houston, with warmer conditions for inland areas such as College Station. Rain chances won’t be zero, and there’s a chance we could see a mid-week system that will bring us some additional, much-needed rainfall.