A fairly robust line of thunderstorms rumbled through Houston during the wee hours this morning. Several locations recorded wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, but power outages were fairly scattered with only about 20,000 customers affected in the metro area as of sunrise.

The storms generally brought 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, and this was manageable by the area’s flood system. Transtar is reporting no major flood-related issues on area roadways. We’ll see continued rain chances into the weekend, but this morning’s action was probably the most significant we’re going to see for awhile.

Wednesday

The squall line with the strongest storms has moved well east of the Houston region, but light showers will likely continue into mid-morning for much of the area. By or before noon, even this light rain should end and we should start to see some partly sunny skies. As a result, high temperatures should push into the upper 80s away from the coast. A few scattered showers will be possible later this evening or during the overnight hours, but for the most part things should be a lot quieter than Tuesday night. Lows will be sticky, likely only falling into the mid-70s.

Thursday

This should be another day with a mix of clouds and sunshine, and temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. Rain chances are probably about 50 percent, but we shouldn’t see any kind of organized storms like we saw Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Friday and Saturday

Healthy rain chances will continue on Friday and Saturday, with both days likely seeing partly to mostly cloudy skies. It’s certainly not going to be wall-to-wall rain, but there should be enough activity that you’ll want to have a contingency plan for any outdoor activities. Highs both days will probably be in the mid-80s. I would guess that most areas see an additional 1 inch of rainfall, or less, from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday.

Sunday and beyond

Will it or won’t it? That’s the question with a cold front approaching our region by Sunday, and possibly pushing through Houston and off the coast. I think there will be enough dry air moving into our region that Sunday should be partly sunny, with diminished rain chances. Temperatures should therefore be a bit cooler to start next week, with models now indicating that a second push of colder air could arrive by mid-week. By Wednesday or Thursday, then, it probably will start to feel more fall-like.

Beginning this morning, Houston has entered a distinctly wetter pattern that should bring 2 to 4 inches of rainfall to much of the region, with higher isolated totals. While area soils are plenty dry and able to handle such rain, the potential for briefly heavy rainfall could lead to a few flooded streets in low-lying areas at some point this week. The wet period may continue into Saturday morning.

Tuesday

So what has changed? After high pressure moved away from the region, much richer moisture has pushed into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, the atmosphere is becoming more unstable as small disturbances begin to move overhead, promoting rising air. As a result of all this we’re going to see fairly widespread showers today across much of the region. With mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures should reach the mid- to upper-80s to go along with light, southeasterly winds. Rain chances become lower by around sunset, but may begin to increase again during the wee hours of Wednesday.

Wednesday

This will be another day with fairly widespread rain showers—about a 60 percent chance—and mostly cloudy skies. Look for highs in the mid-80s. The evening should again provide a bit of a reprieve from shower activity.

Thursday and Friday

At this point it looks like rain chances will peak on Thursday and Friday, with 70 or 80 percent of the area seeing rainfall each day. Highs, accordingly, will be in the mid-80s without much of a cooldown over night.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Beginning on Saturday skies may turn a little more sunny, but we’ll still have a chance for at least some scattered showers. Sunday should be at least partly sunny as well, with highs nudging back into the upper 80s. After that time we’ll be watching to see if a cold front moving down through Texas makes it all the way through Houston and off the coast early next week . Either way, right now, the front looks to be a fairly weak one, with only moderate effects on temperatures and dewpoints. Your sweaters are safe in their closets, for now.

After five sunny and splendid days, Houston’s weather will turn warmer and muggier in the days ahead, with increasing rain chances by Tuesday running through the end of the week. Much of the area should see 1 to 3 inches of rainfall this week, which is fine as it has now been nearly two weeks since Hurricane Nicholas made landfall.

Monday

Today will be somewhat of a transition day after high pressure has departed the region. Yes, atmospheric moisture is returning, but levels should not be high enough to generate much in the way of shower activity. Area-wide, rain chances will be only about 10 percent. There should be enough afternoon sunshine to allow temperatures to approach 90 degrees for much of the region, and lows will only drop into the mid-70s.

Tuesday

Conditions turn more favorable for showers on Tuesday, with rain chances increasing to about 40 percent. Additional cloud cover should shave a degree or two off peak temperatures during the afternoon. Storms will be scattered, and should move fairly quickly from south to north.

Wednesday and Thursday

Rain chances will peak on these days, as an energetic atmospheric feature known as a “jet streak” moves overhead and helps air at the surface to rise. As a result, both of these days should be mostly cloudy, with on and off shower activity. Highs will be in the mid- to upper 80s. Rain will be possible during the overnight hours as well.

Friday

Models suggest rain chances will start to diminish on Friday, perhaps to around 50 percent, but this should still be a mostly cloudy day, with highs slotting somewhere in the mid-80s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The forecast for next weekend remains fairly fuzzy. It now seems unlikely that a front will make it through the area, but we may fall further under the influence of high pressure by Saturday or so, and this should bring sunnier weather back to the region. For now, I’d predict partly sunny skies this weekend, with highs in the upper 80s. But the forecast is written in pencil, rather than pen. The arrival of our next front now looks to be delayed until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics remain active, with major hurricane Sam and a couple of more areas likely to develop later this week. However, Sam will probably steer east of Bermuda and avoid any landmasses, and there is no reason to believe any of the other storms in the Atlantic will track far enough west to reach the Gulf of Mexico.

Our official morning low at IAH Airport was 57° yesterday and 58° today, the coolest pair of back to back days since late April or early May. We are now on the “other side” of things in the wake of the cold front, which means that, while it will still be quite nice the next couple days, it will begin to warm up a bit.

Today & Saturday

Both days look mainly sunny with light winds and comfortable humidity. Look for highs in the mid-80s and nighttime lows inching back into the lower or middle 60s.

As high pressure gradually slips to our east, we will see onshore winds gradually return here, which means humidity will inch back up just a bit also by tomorrow.

Sunday

The end of the weekend will mark the true transition back to more late-summer weather. Expect continued sunshine and a morning low in the mid-60s (warmer at the coast), followed back daytime highs in the mid to upper-80s with a bit more humidity.

Monday & Tuesday

Weather models had been pretty aggressive with bringing rain back to the area next week. For Monday and Tuesday at least, that doesn’t seem too likely. Yes, there will be shower chances on both days, but the setup initially looks kind of mediocre, with probably just a few showers and generally lighter rainfall totals by the end of Tuesday. We will see clouds and plenty of humidity though. Look for highs near 90 degrees and lows in the 70s.

Wednesday & Thursday

The middle to late part of the week may see just a little more support for showers, so rainfall could be a bit more noticeable then. Highs will be contingent on cloud cover and could exceed 90 with enough sunshine, but we’ll generally call for upper-80s or a little cooler with more rain showers.

Overall, we aren’t especially excited about this setup for rain next week. Given the models maybe backing down some today, it looks like an average of 1 to 2 inches is most likely across the region. The highest amounts may be south and west of Houston. Some of you may see less than an inch too. More on this for you Monday.

Late next week

Weather models have been at least hinting at some kind of cold frontal passage later next week for a few days now. It’s too early to get too specific, but I think the evidence points to a couple things right now. First, the “front” will probably not be like this week’s front in that we aren’t going to turn significantly cooler behind it but rather a little cooler but a good bit less humid. I wouldn’t expect 50s for lows right now, but we’ll see.

Second, the timing of the front would be probably next Saturday or Sunday, so most, if not all of next week looks humid. Could all this change? Certainly. We’ll see how things go over the next few days and report back to you next week on what’s happening. So, soak up the next day or two if you like autumn weather.

Tropics

I want to just append a quick note on the tropics today because yesterday morning we had Tropical Depression 18. This morning we have Hurricane Sam. Sam has rapidly intensified into a hurricane out in the open Atlantic.

Sam is expected to become at least a strong Category 3 storm over the next few days which will also help it probably track a little more to the north than it appeared a couple days ago. This should hopefully bypass the Caribbean islands entirely and then turn north and out to sea, though Bermuda may need to keep an eye on Sam. Otherwise, as Eric noted yesterday, at least the Gulf should remain trouble-free.

Have a great weekend!