Good afternoon. Overall, the forecast remains on track. Houston will experience scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. The threat of severe weather will increase after sunset, and peak overnight, before storms clear the area on Tuesday morning. Let’s examine the dual threats tonight: Severe storms and flooding.

Severe storm potential

NOAA has updated its severe storm outlook for Monday and Monday night, and upgraded some parts of our region to a “moderate” chance of severe storms. This is the second highest level of threat, and is indicative of the potential for supercell thunderstorms. Such storms can produce large hail, strong wind gusts, and tornadoes. The area with the most favorable conditions for these storms later today and tonight is northwest of Houston, and includes Austin and College Station. Most of Houston faces a lesser albeit still notable threat tonight, while the coast is at less of a risk.

The bottom line is that strong and severe storms are possible tonight in the Houston metro area, particularly after 8 pm and continuing for about a 12-hour period. Not everyone will see severe weather, of course, and we cannot predict precisely where such storms will develop. So be weather aware, and take shelter in the event a tornado warning is issued.

Heavy rainfall potential

Later tonight the potential for heavier, training rainfall will also move into the picture. The problem is that as the cold front nears Houston early Tuesday it will start to slow down. This may cause storms to slow, and thus produce greater accumulations over certain areas. We’re still looking at 1 to 4 inches for most of the area, but bullseyes of 6 inches or more are possible for some locations, especially away from the coast. For this reason we’ve issued a Stage 1 Flood Alert for the metro are north of Interstate 10. Street flooding is possible in these locations.

The good news is that this mess will clear out pretty quickly on Tuesday morning, taking its rainfall off to our east. But it could make for a stormy night, and potentially a messy commute to work on Tuesday morning before that happens.

Matt will have an update for you later this evening.

Good morning. Houston faces the threat of severe weather later today, and especially tonight, as a slow-moving cold front advances toward the region. This system will be bringing storms across central and east Texas during the next 24 to 30 hours before it finally moves east. During that period we face both the threat of severe thunderstorms, including hail and tornadoes, as well as heavy rainfall. To account for this heavy rainfall, we have instituted a Stage 1 flood alert for the Houston region for areas north of Interstate 10.

Monday

We’re not expecting too much action during the daytime. There will be some scattered showers, but nothing too extreme, as temperatures reach the low 70s beneath cloudy skies. Winds, however, will be noticeable out of the south, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph or even higher at times. For areas west and north of downtown Houston, conditions will start to become more favorable for strong thunderstorms around sunset. At that point storms are likely to sag southeastward, toward central Houston and the coast overnight.

Monday night and Tuesday morning

There will be an abundance of moisture and energy in the atmosphere tonight, which translates into the potential for vigorous thunderstorms. This system will be capable of producing large hail, briefly strong wind gusts, and tornadoes. While this system will be dynamic, and the details are to be determined, generally I think we can expect an initial round of strong thunderstorms during the overnight hours, to be followed by a band of heavier rainfall (with less potential for severe effects like hail and tornadoes) sometime around sunrise on Tuesday morning.

Overall rain totals will likely be 2 to 4 inches for areas north of Interstate 10, and 1 to 4 inches for locations south of the freeway. Some inland locations will see more than 4 inches, and therefore we have placed areas north of Interstate 10 under a Stage 1 flood alert. Street flooding is the most likely outcome.

If this forecast gives you anxiety, please consider that NOAA’s forecast for storm activity locally is mostly in the orange or “enhanced” category (see above). This is relatively high, but there are two higher gradients of storm potential. So while our area is likely to see some severe activity, your personal chances of being directly affected by a tornado are really very low. With that said, due to the potential for inclement weather, this is time to pay attention. It is important that you have one or more ways to get weather warnings tomorrow night (such as you phone, a weather radio, etc.) Matt and I will provide additional updates today, tonight, and Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

As the front moves through on Tuesday morning it should begin to sweep away the rainfall, with rains likely ending mid-morning for most locations. Skies should clear out fairly quickly on Tuesday as drier air pushes in, with sunny skies in the afternoon and highs in the 70s. Lows on Tuesday night should drop into the upper 40s for Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The rest of the week should yield mostly sunny, pleasant weather with highs in the 60s and 70s, lows in the 40s and 50s. Look for a reinforcing shot of drier air sometime around Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

At this vantage point, the weekend looks nice as well. Look for highs in the 70s or possibly low 80s, lows in the 50s, and partly to mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints will recover some, but the air should still feel pleasant dry outside.

Good morning, everyone. I’m back from Spring Break and ready for whatever Mother Nature is going to throw at us in the weeks and months ahead. In the near term, that means more beautiful weather today, and the potential for storms and heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday. To account for possible street flooding, we are issuing a Stage 1 Flood Alert for areas along and north of Interstate 10 from noon Monday through noon Tuesday.

Sunday

After a drop-dead gorgeous Saturday, today will be similarly nice with highs in the mid-70s, ample sunshine, and plenty of dry air. One difference you’ll notice is that winds will become southerly later this afternoon, perhaps gusting to 15 to 20 mph. This will start the influx of moisture that will increase the potential for storms on Monday and Tuesday. Lows on Sunday night will only drop to around 60 degrees, as clouds move in.

Monday and Tuesday

Monday morning will warm, gray, and humid, with the possibility of some light showers across the area. However, winds will continue to build out of the south and southeast, perhaps gusting to 35 or even 40 during the daytime. These winds will be in response to an advancing low pressure system and cold front. This system will combine with the increasing moisture levels to produce a favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe, during the afternoon and evening hours. Some hail, damaging wind gusts, and even tornadoes are possible in Houston, especially away from the coast.

This severe storm threat will persist into Monday night, but at some point the potential for hail and tornadoes will diminish. However, as that’s happening, by early Tuesday, we should see increasing potential for heavy rainfall as the front itself nears. I think, overall, most locations can probably expect 1 to 4 inches of rain with higher isolated totals. It has been so dry that such rain totals are manageable, but as usual we can probably expect some street flooding on Tuesday in hard hit spots. The potential for heavy rain is greatest for inland areas, so we’re issuing a Stage 1 Flood Alert for Houston locations along and north of Interstate 10.

The front itself probably should push into central Houston around noon on Tuesday, or few hours earlier. This should end the threat of inclement weather. Lows will drop into the 40s for most areas on Tuesday night as cooler air moves in.

Wednesday and beyond

Things clear out and cool down with the arrival of a front on Tuesday, and this will lead to mostly sunny and pleasant spring-like weather for the rest of the week. More details on this tomorrow.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

The ups and downs we’ve seen in the weather-world lately will continue heading into the next several days. A really nice weekend will give way to thunderstorms and locally heavy rain early next week, followed by more nice weather.

Today

The cold front is pushing through as I write this. There doesn’t appear to be any rain with it, but I suppose if you catch a sprinkle or brief shower through 8 AM or so, I wouldn’t be shocked. However, skies will quickly clear out behind the front, and it will be a mainly sunny day.

You will notice a pretty gusty wind today. It will be a blustery one, with north or northwest winds of 15 mph, gusting as high as 20 to 30 mph, especially along the coast or near the bay. The push of cold air behind this front isn’t especially strong, so we’ll manage to get to 70 degrees today I think without too much trouble.

I did notice that it smells smoky outside this morning, and there are reports of haze around, so this could be smoke coming in on the northwest winds from wildfires in Central Texas. Several fires were occurring yesterday in Eastland County just east of Abilene. Given the gusty winds with the front, it’s probable that some of that got carried south. Whatever the case, don’t be alarmed if you smell smoke outside this morning, but today is an elevated fire weather day again, particularly in interior Texas.

It’s Marshmello night at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo, and you won’t be happier with the weather outlook. It will be cool, with temperatures falling from the mid-60s as you arrive into the upper-50s as you exit. Winds will also drop off some in that time as well. Overall, not bad at all!

Weekend

This weekend looks just spectacular. We’ll lose the wind tomorrow, but we’ll keep the sunshine, low humidity, and cooler temperatures. Since winds lighten up tonight, look for Saturday morning lows in the 40s over most of the area.

But with the sunshine tomorrow, we should easily push into the low to mid-70s.

Sunday looks similar, with a cool start and lows in the 40s, followed by sunshine and warmer weather, with highs well into the 70s, if not near 80 degrees. Humidity will inch up on Sunday, but the bulk of it will not arrive until Monday morning. Sunday’s only real gripe may be the wind, which will pick up some through the day, gusting onshore at around 15 to 20 mph by Sunday afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday

This will be the main period of concern for the forecast, as a number of issues will present themselves. The overarching storyline is that a strong storm system is going to develop over West Texas allowing for severe weather to develop ahead of it and drag a cold front through by Tuesday morning. This should allow for multiple rounds of showers and storms in our area, along with the potential for severe weather and heavy rain.

The Houston area remains included in the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook for Monday, with the highest risk north of Houston. It does appear that there will be some “capping” in the atmosphere Monday which muddies the risk a little bit over the Houston metro area. Capping, you’ll recall, tends to inhibit storm development. But there’s a clear trend toward that cap “breaking” north of Houston, which is why the higher probabilities of severe weather are north of Conroe. We probably won’t have a clear view on this until Sunday or even Monday morning. Either way, be prepared for scattered storms on Monday, any of which could be strong to severe, with the highest odds north of I-10.

You’ll also notice strong onshore winds Monday, with gusts of 30 mph possible, as the gradient tightens around the storm passing to our north.

We may get a lull in the action Monday evening before the prefrontal trough pushes through on Tuesday morning. This will likely provide heavy rainfall and the possibility of some severe weather as well. I can tell you right now, if the timing of this continues as steady as it has looked for a few days, there’s a chance many of us will be woken up by thunder in the middle of the night Monday into Tuesday morning. We’ll have the latest for you on this certainly Monday but possibly Sunday as well.

Dry air filters in Tuesday morning, which will allow temperatures to shoot up with sunshine Tuesday afternoon well into the 70s. The cold front itself will lag and not push through til Tuesday evening, likely with little fanfare. But it will allow for blustery north winds and cooler temperatures on Wednesday.

Later next week

As noted, Wednesday will be cooler but sunny, so look for morning lows in the 50s or even some 40s and daytime highs well into the 60s. Thursday should be cool as well, with morning 40s and daytime highs near 70 degrees. It will be less breezy on Thursday, with continued sunshine and low humidity.