Good morning. Our abnormally warm May weather continues, but I’m still expecting a modest break from the heat this weekend as well as the influx of some much needed rainfall. How much? We don’t yet know. But until then, it will feel a lot like June or even July outside.

Wednesday

As high pressure begins to sag eastward, we’ll see an onshore flow today that is a bit stronger, with southerly winds at 5 to 15 mph, at times gusting to 20 mph. Aside from that, there’s not a whole lot to say, with high temperatures topping out in the low- to mid-90s with mostly sunny skies. Conditions tonight will be warm, with lows in the mid-70s, generally, and partly cloudy skies.

Thursday

If you liked Wednesday’s weather you’re in luck. Thursday is going to be just about the same.

Friday

High temperatures on Friday may be a degree or two cooler, and the southerly flow a little bit stronger. Sustained winds on Friday afternoon could reach as high as 20 mph, with gusts of 25 or 30 mph. Mostly sunny skies during the afternoon will give way to more clouds during the evening and this will make for a warm and sultry night. Look for lows to only fall to near 80 degrees in the city of Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should start out warm, and mostly cloudy, with high temperatures reaching into the low 90s. After that we’re watching the movement of a slow-moving (and dying) cold front approaching our area. While the details remain fuzzy, rain chances should start to increase on Saturday evening into the overnight hours, with a healthy chance of rain persisting into Sunday. Most of the area should at least see some rain, perhaps a few tenths of an inch, but we certainly cannot rule out the potential for more localized heavy rainfall. Temperatures on Sunday will probably be in the 80s for most areas.

Next week

It looks like what remains of the front will move off shore, allowing most of the region to stay in the 80s on Monday. But after that we’ll start to warm back up. While nothing is certain, it looks as though the pattern will support decent rain chances at least into the middle of next week. With June around the corner, several days of on-and-off rain sure would help with the region’s emergent drought.

So far, this May, every day has recorded an above-normal temperature. The monthly average of 80.8 degrees is on pace to be the second-warmest May on record for Houston, behind only 1996. Temperatures this week will be even warmer, with highs likely reaching the mid-90s, and lows in the mid-70s. However my confidence is increasing in the arrival of a weak, late season cool front on Saturday night or Sunday that should bring some moderate relief in terms of temperatures, and needed rain showers.

Tuesday

In the meantime, however, high-pressure is going to drive near-record heat across the region. Today will be mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-90s, and southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph. Overnight lows will be muggy, with temperatures only dropping into the low-70s beneath mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday and Thursday

Expect more of the same, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, and mostly sunny skies. Winds will be a little more noticeable, blowing out of the south at about 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. Do I really need to tell you that the nighttime will be warm and muggy?

Friday

Highs on Friday should reach the low- to mid-90s, and we’ll see even stronger southerly winds at 15 to 20 mph, and gusts of 25 or possibly even 30 mph. Friday night looks especially muggy, with overnight lows in the mid- to upper-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend remains a bit fuzzy, but some sort of change is indeed coming. It looks like an atmospheric disturbance will provoke a chance of showers on Saturday morning, primarily for inland areas. Then, an approaching front should bring a widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms sometime between Saturday evening or Sunday morning. Right now accumulations don’t look too impressive, perhaps on the order of 0.25 inch for most, but that value is subject to change. The bottom line is that Saturday should be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-90s, whereas highs drop into the mid-80s or so on Sunday, with continued clouds. Lows on Sunday night should drop to around 70 degrees for Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Next week

Monday should again be in the 80s before the cold front washes out. With the return of the onshore flow, it looks like we may some additional (and welcome) rainfall by Tuesday or so. Yes, please.

Good morning. Just a quick note about the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season: We are a little more than two weeks from the start on June 1, and on Sunday the National Hurricane Center began its regular issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks. The five-day outlooks are released four times daily at 1 am, 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm CT through November 30th. There is nothing imminent, but this serves as another reminder that hurricane season is nigh.

Monday

As for our more immediate weather, after a hot and sunny weekend, more hot and sunny weather is on the way. Partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon as high temperatures rise into the low- to mid-90s. Winds will be light, at about 5 mph, out of the southwest. A few, very scattered showers may be possible later this morning as a dying storm system moves southward into the region. But I don’t think these showers will make it all the way to the metro area. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-70s for most.

Tuesday

This will be another hot and sunny day with highs in the mid-90s, lows in the mid-70s, and modest southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The high pressure system that has pushed our highs upward will start to weaken slightly during the second half of this week. Effectively that means that our high temperatures may fall back slightly, to about 90 degrees or a few ticks higher, with sunny skies. However, a few more clouds overnight should push nighttime temperatures up a few degrees. So toward the end of the week overnight lows probably will not be dropping below the mid- or even upper-70s. Rain chances remain very low, at 10 percent or less.

Saturday and Sunday

The pattern may start to change by Friday night or Saturday, as the overall flow in the atmosphere opens us up to the potential for some rain showers, and possibly even a very weak, late season front. All of this is very speculative, however. For now, let’s go with highs of around 90 degrees for each day this weekend, and a 30 percent chance of rain. Obviously we’ll have to adjust this forecast in the coming days.

Another day of upper-80s and low-90s across the area on Thursday. And much more to come. The U.S. Drought Monitor update was released yesterday. It did show slight improvement in and north of Houston, mostly in the Brazos Valley. However, drought classified as “extreme” (level 3 of 4) continues to expand now across Matagorda County and portions of Brazoria and Wharton Counties.

I expect this will expand a little bit next week and then, depending on how next weekend goes, possibly even more the week after. The weather pattern across Texas continues to look abnormally hot for mid-May and also quite dry. Soil moisture continues to dry out, especially in coastal and south Texas this month. We still have time to stave off a potentially bad drought situation in Texas for the summer, but we really need a system or two to come through and give us a widespread rain. Perhaps there is some hope next weekend or beyond, but as Eric noted yesterday, our confidence in that occurring is not particularly high. So it goes.

Today through Sunday

Some slightly drier air has allowed us to turn a good bit cooler this morning, with lows in the 60s. It actually feels…nice? Whatever the case, it likely won’t last more than a few hours. The Friday through Sunday period will just be sun, sun, sun. Lather up with the SPF-a-lot and try to keep cool this weekend. Look for highs in the low to mid-90s and lows in the 70s. Each subsequent morning heading into next week looks just a little warmer and a little more humid. Certainly not as pleasant as this morning. We’re firmly into June/July-type weather.

Could it rain this weekend? Yes, if you’re lucky, you may see a shower or downpour, particularly on Saturday. I’m not expecting miracles, but don’t be too shocked if you see a passing shower or two.

Monday through Thursday

Each subsequent day looks to get just a little hotter. We’ll be firmly into July/August-type temperatures by midweek with highs likely in the mid-90s, if not hotter in some spots. Lows will be in the 70s, if not the upper-70s. And we continue to look sunny.

There’s just no meaningful relief in sight. A shower or two is possible on a day or two here or there, but again, you would be fortunate to see that.

Next weekend & tropics?

We continue to at least see hints of change coming next weekend. That could be via a cold front or passing disturbance that brings a day or two of higher rain chances. We’re not confident in exactly what it is we see just yet, but most models show at least some kind of change in things for a couple days. I’m not sure it will be quite enough to tilt the scales toward meaningful, lasting change though, as most models bring heat right back after that system exits.

I’ll close by saying that there have been a few social media accounts pushing out model data that shows a rogue tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf on like forecast day 15 or so. Models (this one in particular, the GFS) generally do show these early season “scareicanes,” but they essentially never come to fruition, at least as shown. While, yes, we could always get tropical activity in the Gulf in late May, it would be highly unlikely to see a significant storm this early. Your best bet is tune that nonsense out. We’ll let you know if anything looks like it could realistically impact our area. It does not at this time.