Sunday was August 1, which means that a third of the Atlantic hurricane season is now in the books. While that’s a good thing, the reality is that the vast majority of hurricane activity, historically, occurs after August 1st. And for the state of Texas, the odds of a hurricane strike after October 1st are remote. So for us, the next two months really matter. This is when you should have your hurricane plans finalized, and preparations made.

In terms of a near-term tropical forecast, Matt will have more in our weekly update on Tuesday. However, we’re definitely seeing signs that activity in the “main development region” between Africa and the Caribbean Sea will start to heat up in a week or so. And after that point we’ll likely be closely watching tropical activity for awhile.

Monday

Remarkably, the main discussion point for today, the second day of August, will be a cool front approaching the area. This “front” won’t bring too much cool or dry air, but it will generate enough of a disturbance in the atmosphere to provoke rising air and a good possibility of showers and thunderstorms. Most of the area should see partly sunny skies this morning, with increasing clouds late this morning to go along with rising rain chances.

I think we’ll see a round of showers that will hit about half of the region this afternoon, perhaps a break this evening, and then another round of storms overnight that will probably hit a majority of the Houston area. Accumulations for most will be on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch, but some few areas may pick up 3 or more inches. We’re not expecting anything more than low-lying street flooding, at worst. For the most part we should see highs in the low 90s.

Tuesday

As the front gets hung up along the coast on Tuesday, we should see scattered showers again although probably not with the intensity some areas see Monday and Monday night. Otherwise we expect partly sunny skies with highs in the low 90s. As far as cooling goes, overnight lows should drop into the mid-70s for much of the region, which isn’t terrible for August.

Wednesday and Thursday

The weather these days will depend on whether the front shoves all the way offshore, but if it does I expect a pair of reasonably pleasant August days, with highs in the low 90s, slightly lower humidity, and scattered to isolated rain chances. Lows will be in the 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The end of the week looks to bring mostly sunny weather to the region, with increasing humidity. Highs will likely be in the neighborhood of the mid-90s. At this point it looks like the atmosphere will be supportive of some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours with daytime heating. For the most part, however, this should be a pretty classic August weekend in Houston with heat and humidity.

Not a whole lot to cover in this morning’s post, which is good news for most of us. But there are a couple things we’ll dig in on, mainly heat index values this weekend and rain chances with the cold front next week.

Today through Sunday

All of the next few days look fairly similar in nature, with sunshine, some clouds, and at least a smattering of afternoon downpours across the region. Exactly how numerous those are will likely vary from day to day, with today seeing the best odds of a downpour (still probably no worse than about 30 percent coverage) and tomorrow or Sunday probably seeing the lowest odds. Areas along and south of I-10 probably have the highest odds of seeing a shower play out, while areas north of Houston likely have the lowest odds.

The other weather issue you’ll contend with this weekend is heat. Look for highs in the mid to upper-90s today through Sunday with nighttime lows in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

It will feel more like 104° to 108° each afternoon when you factor in the humidity, with some places possibly even sneaking up close to 110° at times. It’s a good idea to take it easy outdoors this weekend and drink lots of water.

Monday

Consider Monday our transition day, albeit late. We will start off like the weekend, with ample heat and humidity. Look for 70s to near 80° in the morning again and daytime highs in the mid to upper-90s as well. The front will arrive sometime Monday night or early Tuesday it appears. As Eric has noted, August fronts don’t usually arrive with a ton of fanfare in the temperature department, so you probably won’t realize when it gets here. But, storms are possible by Monday evening.

Tuesday through Thursday

With the front overhead or just offshore, it will serve as a focal point, in concert with the sea breeze each day for showers and thunderstorms. Because we’ll have more clouds and higher rain chances, we can expect cooler temperatures. Highs will likely be in the upper-80s to low-90s with lows in the 70s. You may walk outside one morning and comment, “Hey, this isn’t all that bad.” But short of that, this looks like it will remain a fairly warm and humid period.

How much rain should we expect with all this next week? I think it depends on exactly how far offshore the front gets. Today that means probably an inch or two for some areas, a bit less in others.

Some higher amounts will be possible in isolated areas, but honestly this doesn’t look like too menacing a period, and it will probably just be mostly a nuisance couple of days for us. Rain chances should peak Tuesday and Wednesday and probably begin to tail off a little by Thursday. There is still some uncertainty on these details, so you’ll want to check back with us on Monday to see what has changed over the weekend.

Tropics

All remains quiet right now and probably for at least the next 5 to 7 days. There are some hints that activity may begin to pick up again the week of August 9th. But as of now, there is nothing specific we can hone in on anywhere in the Atlantic basin, so that’s purely speculation, albeit speculation rooted in meteorology. We shall see. But nothing to worry about for now at least!

Good morning. Overall the forecast story remains the same, with scattered afternoon rain chances this week, a hot and sunny weekend, and then better rain chances next week as a rare August front moves into Texas and approaches our area.

Thursday

It’s rather sultry outside this morning, with temperatures solidly at 80 degrees or above for most of the metro area. Our weather today will continue the pattern we’ve seen for this week, with hot and mostly sunny conditions, and high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. Winds today will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. The sea breeze should generate some shower activity late this morning and into the afternoon, but showers should be fairly scattered with one-third or less the metro area seeing rainfall. Lows tonight will again be warm.

Friday

See Thursday’s weather.

Saturday and Sunday

As the influence of high pressure over the plains states expands further, Houston’s temperatures should rise into the upper 90s this weekend, and rain chances will transition from “scattered” to “isolated.” This will be a classic August weekend as we head into August.

Next week

Monday looks hot and sunny again, but then an honest-to-goodness front will push into Texas and move toward the Houston region on Monday night. I want to set expectations accordingly, as this front won’t bring much cooler or drier air. Rather, it should instead drive increased shower activity on Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday of next week, and the increased cloud cover may push highs into the lower 90s. After a hot week some showers and somewhat cooler weather would not be unwelcome.

Good morning. Houston’s summertime pattern will continue for the rest of this week, with hot days and a decent chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These storms will be hit or miss—a few locations in the Houston region saw one-half inch of rain on Tuesday afternoon and evening, while most people saw no rain at all.

Wednesday

If the air feels a tiny bit drier this morning you can thank some thunderstorms that developed on the east side of Houston on Tuesday evening. These ushered some slightly cooler air into the region. This may slow development of showers today, but we still expect at least scattered activity later this afternoon and evening. Probably about one third of the area will see at least some brief showers, with a few locations seeing downpours. Highs should get into the mid-90s with light easterly winds. Lows tonight may briefly drop below 80 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

Quite honestly the setup does not change much. Skies will still be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s, and a chance of afternoon and evening showers.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure becomes a little bit more dominant this weekend I think rain chances will lower a bit, but not go away entirely. Mostly, we’re going to see sunshine and hot weather, with highs likely in the upper 90s. August begins on Sunday and yeah, it will feel like it.

Monday and beyond

Monday looks hot and sunny again, but thereafter a dying front approaching Houston from the northeast may act to raise rain chances and slightly lower temperatures. We may be talking highs in the low 90s and rain chances of 50 percent or higher, but at this point it’s difficult to have too much confidence in such a forecast.