Good morning. A strong cold front will sweep across Houston this morning, bringing heavy rainfall and potentially damaging winds as it passes. In the front’s wake rains will quickly end, and with dropping dewpoints we’ll see drier air and cooler weather. Although Thursday and Friday remain somewhat breezy, our weather should be fair and fall-like through the weekend.

Wednesday

As of 6:20 am the line of storms associated with the front is nearing College Station, and should reach the western edge of Harris County by around 7 to 8 am. It should push through the city of Houston itself from 9 to 10 am and be off the coast by about noon. Most areas will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rain as the front moves through, with a few areas seeing more where storms are strongest. The main hazard is damaging winds, with hail and perhaps a tornado as a lesser threat. These storms may be briefly nasty, so they’re best avoided if possible. Dewpoints will drop after the front moves through, and we should see highs this afternoon in the 70s with clearing skies. Winds will blow from the north-northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s for most locations except the coast.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of sunny and cooler days, with highs generally in the low to mid-70s. On both days, but especially Thursday, a tight gradient will lead to breezy conditions. Gusts on Thursday could reach about 30 mph or even slightly higher at some locations, with gusts still in the 20s possible on Friday. Overnight lows will reach their nadir on Friday night and Saturday morning, likely dropping into the upper 40s for areas outside the urban core of Houston, and away from the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks amazing. Saturday should see sunny skies, highs in the mid-70s, and lighter winds. Overnight lows into Sunday will be a few degrees warmer as winds begin to return from offshore. Halloween looks quite nice as well, with more mostly sunny skies and highs near 80 degrees. Temperatures at the hour of trick-or-treating should be in the upper 70s for most locations, with enough dry air to keep things quite nice.

Next week

Some uncertainty remains, of course, but generally we should see a warming trend of temperatures back into the low 80s next week, although right now humidity levels won’t likely get oppressively high. Another front probably comes into the picture by Wednesday or Thursday, potentially setting the stage for another stellar weekend in early November. But that forecast is in pencil for now.

Well, I almost made it with a recent prediction. But alas, Mother Nature is a cruel mistress. Careful readers may recall that, 11 days ago, I wrote:

Today’s the last hot day for awhile. High temperatures away from the coast should reach about 90 degrees, and this probably will be the last time this occurs in 2021. (Emphasis on probably). 

This was just before a nice front moved into Houston, and knocked highs down into the 70s. But then we warmed back up, more aggressively than I anticipated. Still, we managed to avoid 90 degrees for awhile. Over the last week Houston hit 88 degrees three times. I started to breathe easy. Then came Monday, which was realistically the last day I could be wrong with the 90-degree prediction. And wouldn’t you know it? We hit 91 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

What I will say now is this: There is a very, very slight chance our region hits 90 degrees today. But if we don’t Monday, October 25, was the last 90-degree day of 2021.

Tuesday

Due to very high dewpoints, we’re again seeing areas of dense fog across Houston this morning. After the fog clears away we’ll see mostly cloudy skies later today. This cloud cover should help to moderate temperatures a bit, keeping them in the upper 80s. Winds will be out of the southeast at around 10 mph. Some (very light) showers are possible later today, but we should just see clouds for the most part. Lows tonight will be sticky, in the low 70s.

Wednesday

A cold front remains on track for Wednesday, and there will be no doubt as this one blows through Houston. Confidence is increasing that a fairly strong line of storms will accompany the front as it moves from northwest to southeast across the region. Although it will be moving fairly quickly, the front could still drop 1 to 2 inches of rain as it passes, and produce briefly severe winds (now’s a good time to secure Halloween decorations). In terms of timing, the front should reach College Station by around sunrise, push into Houston by 9 or 10 am, and move off the coast by around noon or shortly thereafter. Winds will gust from the west at 20 to 25 mph after the front, with overnight temperatures dropping into the 50s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of breezy, sunny, and cool days. Highs Thursday and Friday should only reach the 70s, and winds may gust as high as 30 mph on Thursday, while remaining brisk on Friday. This will be helping to usher in cooler air, and it now looks like much of the region may drop into the 40s on Friday night, the coolest of the period.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday looks absolutely splendid, like perhaps the nicest day of fall so far. Winds should be light, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s, to go along with plenty of sunshine and dry air. Saturday night should be another cool one, in the 40s and 50s across Houston.

As for Halloween, this forecast is—to borrow a phrase—spooktacular. With sunny skies, highs will reach around 80 degrees. This will set the stage for a pleasant evening, likely in the upper 70s, with enough dry air to keep everyone happy. Rain chances are essentially zero. (This might be a forecast I get right! Almost a week ago, if you recall, I forecast temperatures in the upper-70s for trick-or-treating. You win some, you lose some, in this game).

Houston will face some fog this morning as surface temperatures and dewpoints are essentially the same, in the low- to mid-70s. This sticky weather will abruptly change on Wednesday as a strong front moves through and brings breezy, cooler weather to the region. The weekend, including Halloween, looks absolutely spectacular.

Monday

After the fog dissipates shortly after sunrise, today is going to be hot and sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Winds will be light, out of the west to southwest. Lows tonight won’t drop much below the mid-70s for most of the region. This weather is uncharacteristically warm for late October, but it’s not going to last.

Tuesday

This will be another sticky day, but the presence of a few more clouds should help to limit high temperatures to the mid- to upper-80s. Some rain chances will be possible during the afternoon hours along the coast, migrating inland during the evening. Any showers that develop should be light. Rain chances will be in the range of 30 percent. Overnight temperatures will remain warm as moderate rain chances persist.

Wednesday

It’s cold front day! As always there is a bit of uncertainty with the front’s timing, but it looks like a line of storms should reach the metro area around Noon. These storms could be briefly intense as they move from northwest to southeast across Houston, but should only last for an hour or less. Accumulations should be on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain for most. Highs for most on Wednesday will be in the mid-80s, with the air becoming markedly drier behind the front. Lows Wednesday night should drop to around 60 in Houston, with cooler weather in outlying areas, and warmer conditions right along the coast.

Thursday and Friday

These should be sunny, splendid days with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for much of the metro area, and 40s for some inland areas. It’s possible that these days are somewhat breezy, so that’s something we’ll be watching for.

Saturday and Sunday

Plan your outdoor activities with confidence. Both days should see mostly sunny skies. Saturday should bring highs in the 70s, with Halloween possibly reaching 80 degrees. Although the onshore flow will return sometime this weekend, enough dry air should remain to make for pleasant conditions when trick-or-treating on Sunday evening. Enjoy!

The upcoming weekend will offer up a mixed bag of weather, featuring sun, clouds, some shower chances, and plenty of warmth and humidity. None of this should scare you away from whatever you were planning to do this weekend, though it will be warm! We still have a cold front in sight but not until midweek next week. That may possibly mean the end of “Second Summer” here in Texas.

Friday

We have another round of dense fog in spots this morning, particularly outside Grand Parkway. Places like Sugar Land, Katy, and areas west or south of there toward Wharton or Lake Jackson, as well as east of Houston in Liberty County and toward Beaumont are all seeing visibilities under a half mile as of 6:45 AM.

That fog will dissipate over the next 2 to 3 hours, and today looks fairly similar to yesterday. Expect a mix of clouds and sun and temperatures generally in the 80s. An few showers can’t be ruled out, but rain would be the exception, not the rule.

Saturday and Sunday

As Eric noted yesterday, both weekend days will carry a chance of showers or a thunderstorm. Expect any showers to be fairly short-lived and really not too big a deal. Based on today’s model data, I think Saturday may have a slightly higher overall chance for rain than Sunday. Outside of that, just a mix of sun and clouds with warm, humid conditions. Winds should be generally light on Saturday and then a bit gusty on Sunday. Expect highs in the 80s and lows in the upper-60s or 70s.

Monday and Tuesday

Look for rain chances to ease back a little here, as we end up with continued warm onshore flow ahead of a cold front that will stay to our north but an atmosphere without much to set storms off. Highs will be in the 80s and lows in the 70s. Winds may begin to pick up a bit again on Tuesday.

Midweek and beyond

The cold front we’ve been discussing is still on track to arrive on Wednesday. Models have been in disagreement on how robust the storm chances will be with this front, but suffice to say there will be at least a decent chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday. We should know more about this on Monday. Behind the front, look for refreshing air with lower humidity and gusty offshore winds. That should set up a very nice back half of next week.

You can see from the chart above of European ensemble forecast low temperatures over the next 2 weeks that there is a rather mixed signal after next week’s front. Some ensemble members warm us back up, while others keep us cool. The overall weather pattern across North America may be shifting a bit to allow more frequent cold fronts into Texas. This should perhaps allow us to shift out of this “Second Summer” business and into true autumn. As Eric noted yesterday, the timing of this first front probably means a mild Halloween this year, but there is still ample uncertainty. Again, look for more on this on Monday. Have a great weekend!