Good morning. We’re seeing widespread fog this morning as the air temperature near the surface has fallen to the dewpoint temperature, meaning humidity is 100 percent. This so-called “radiation” fog also requires calm winds, and there has been virtually no wind over night. It should fully dissipate by around 9 or 10 am this morning. Please note, in case you missed it, we published our Winter Outlook on Wednesday.

Thursday

After the fog dissipates we’ll see partly cloudy skies this morning, turning mostly sunny this afternoon with light winds. Highs will reach the upper 80s for most areas. Rain chances are less than 10 percent. Low temperatures tonight will fall to around 70 degrees in Houston. With calm winds again, we could see more patchy fog.

Friday

A very similar day to Thursday, with temperatures perhaps a degree or two cooler during the daytime.

Saturday and Sunday

Winds will become more pronounced from the southeast this weekend, and this will do two things. It will drive up humidity levels somewhat, and it will introduce enough moisture into the atmosphere for about a 20 percent chance of rain both days. Any showers that form will be fairly short lived. Otherwise we can expect partly to mostly sunny skies this weekend, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s.

Next week

The start of next week will be warm and muggy, and conditions will remain so until a cold front arrives. The timing of all this is not yet set in stone, but the front will likely push through some time on Wednesday. Rain chances will increase ahead of, and along with the front, and this should set the stage for more pleasant weather to end of the month of October.

Halloween

We are still 10 days away from Halloween, so the forecast is about as solid as a Peeps marshmallow candy. (Incidentally my brother-in-law once found a post Halloween sale on these selling 100 boxes for $1. Such a price would still be too high for me.) Anyway, the effects of the front will probably be fading by Sunday, October 31. My guess for weather on Halloween, then, would be highs somewhere in the low- to mid-80s, and temperatures in the upper 70s around sunset at the trick-or-treating hour. So it could be rather nice, but again, take a 10-day forecast with a grain of salt.

As we near the end of October it’s time to look ahead to the coming winter. While seasonal forecasting is far from perfect, it does have some predictive value. And we know that some people are on edge about winter given the terrible Valentine’s Day freeze the region endured eight months ago. So Matt and I are putting together an extra-long outlook with several parts.

As a special treat, we’re also going to finally answer the question we get asked about a hundred times a year: Do landfalling hurricanes in Houston mean we’re going to see snow during the subsequent winter?

Winter outlook

For the purposes of this post, we’re defining winter as the period of December through February. In short: our region of Texas should see somewhat warmer than normal temperatures, and near- or slightly below normal levels of precipitation.

Essentially, the NOAA winter forecast predicts above normal temperatures for most of the United States, and especially southern and eastern parts of the country. In terms of precipitation, we can expect slightly drier than normal weather for the winter months in Houston and much of Texas. It looks like it could be a snowy winter in the Great Lakes region.

The driving factor behind these predicitons is the expected onset of another La Niña pattern this winter.

What does La Niña mean for this winter?

Forecasters are now confident that a moderate La Niña pattern will develop and persist through the winter of 2021-2022. A La Niña event occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean cool below normal levels. This tends to have fairly predictable effects for North America during the winter months.

Assuming a moderate La Niña develops, this typically places the jet stream a bit further north across the United States than normal. This positioning tends to bring fewer storms and fronts into Texas during the winter months, and accordingly we would expect a Texas winter to be warmer and slightly drier than normal.

That, of course, is the typical pattern. Sharp-eyed readers may recall that a La Niña pattern was also in place during last winter. So how, exactly, should we feel about that in the context of another super hard freeze this coming winter?

How likely is another February 2021-type freeze?

While nothing is ever certain in life, particularly with respect to weather, the odds of having a similar event to the February freeze in the following winter is very low in Houston. And the odds are no higher than they are in any other given winter. Back just before the cold set in, Matt wrote a post about historic Houston freeze events. The post touched on similar longer-duration cold snaps that occurred in 2018, 2011, 1989, 1983, 1978, 1951, 1940, 1930, 1899, and 1895. None of those occurred in back to back winters.

If we want to take a more rigorous statistical approach, we can crunch some more numbers. Back in February we had official low temperatures of 16° and 13° on the 15th and 16th. So let’s look at all winters that saw back to back low temperatures of 19° or colder.

It has not happened in back-to-back winters since January 1911 and January 1912. Prior to that, it also happened in the 1893-94 and 1894-95 winters. Again, nothing is ever certain, but history is more than likely on our side here.

Do summer hurricanes lead to winter snow?

One of the most common winter forecast refrains I’ve heard since moving to Houston in 2012 is that if we have a hurricane in summer, we almost always have snow in the subsequent winter. 2021 saw us get hit with Hurricane Nicholas, so obviously that means we should get ready for an 1895-style snowball fight, right? In words of the great philosopher Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend.”

Let’s be somewhat generous and define “hit by a hurricane” as a year in which a hurricane passed within 125 miles of downtown Houston (Editor’s note: Because we are using this strict definition, 2017 was omitted, as Harvey was *not* a hurricane within 125 miles of Houston. It was a tropical storm at that point.) Prior to 2021, 33 hurricanes have met this criteria since 1895. If we match those years up with years that saw snow in Houston (via the old Weather Research Center’s excellent list), we can see what years saw snow after a hurricane hit. So let’s do exactly that. A couple notes about this: First, just because “Houston didn’t see snow,” it doesn’t mean it didn’t snow in some outlying portions of our area. “Houston” sprawls pretty far out, but in order to do this, we need to meet some kind of definition. Second, you may notice a discontinuity between the list of hurricane years and snow years if you try to do this yourself. Just remember that if a hurricane hit in 1983, we had to see snow in the winter of 1983-84 for it to qualify. Incidentally, we didn’t, though we had a pretty memorable freeze that winter. Also, some years saw multiple hurricanes, such as 1989, 1971, and 1934.

Since 1895, the data (plus 2021) suggests Houston has seen snow in 23 percent of all winters, hurricane or no hurricane. Based on the hurricane data, seven out of 30 winters following a hurricane hit since 1895 have seen snow, placing our odds at—wait for it—23 percent. The takeaway? It’s fun to say that Houston sees snow in winters following a hurricane. The statistics say that is false, and the odds of snow in a post-hurricane winter are perfectly identical to the odds of snow in any other winter.

We’re just the messengers, but please feel free to yell at Matt if and when it snows this winter.

Temperatures are notably warmer this morning, with lows ranging from about 60 degrees well inland to the upper 70s along the coast. We’ll now remain in this warmer, and largely rain-free pattern, for about a week. Our next front will not arrive until next Wednesday or Thursday.

Wednesday

Winds will be light today, out of the east at about 5 mph. And with slightly lower pressures over the Gulf of Mexico we may see the development of a few more clouds. This will lead to a partly sunny day, with highs in the mid-80s. There may be a few, brief-lived showers east of Houston, but the vast majority of the region should see no rain at all. Low temperatures tonight will drop to around 70 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

Both of these days should see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s. Rain chances will be near zero with light easterly winds. Overnight lows will be around 70 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

Our mostly sunny weather continues into the weekend with only slight modification. In response to departing high pressure, winds will turn more southerly, and increase to 10 to 15 mph with some higher gusts. This will bring a 10 or 20 percent chance of showers into the forecast each day, but for the most part I’d expect sunshine and highs in the upper 80s. A good weekend for the beach in late October? Why not.

Next week

Warm weather, with a mix of sunshine and clouds, continues next week. Rain chances start to nudge up on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a cold front that should arrive later on Wednesday or Thursday. It’s still too early to have much confidence in the details, but we should see some significantly drier air and cooler nights.

Good morning. Our air remains pleasantly dry this morning, but that will begin to change as the overall flow turns more southeasterly. This will set the stage for a warm, but benign period that should run through the middle of next week, without too much variation. It looks like our next front won’t arrive until around Thursday of next week.

Tuesday

Except for central Houston and southern areas, low temperatures this morning have managed to drop into the 50 for most of you. This will be our last night in the 50s for awhile, however, as the flow from the Gulf of Mexico returns today. This will mean increasing humidity levels—although we’re not anticipating a return to ultra sultry weather—and rising temperatures. Highs today should reach the low 80s, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Rain chances are 10 percent, or less. Lows tonight will only drop into the 60s for inland areas, and low 70s along the coast.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These days will all be similar, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will depend upon how much sunshine peeks out during the afternoon hours, but most locations should wind up in the mid- to upper-80s. Nights will remain warm, in the 60s to lower 70s. Rain chances are basically nil.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring more of the same, although the onshore flow becomes a little more pronounced. Highs still will likely fall somewhere in the mid- to upper-80s, but nighttime temperatures could rise a degree or two, and increasing dewpoints should make it feel that little bit more sticky outside. Each day will probably see some sunshine, and some clouds, and while rain is unlikely we can’t rule it out.

Next week

This warm but not exactly hot pattern should persist into next week. Rain chances finally start to increase about a week from now, but we’re not anticipating anyting too wet. The global models are in pretty good agreement about a strongish front arriving by later next week, perhaps around Thursday. While I’d never have too much confidence in a nine-day forecast, the signal for something to shake up this weather pattern has been fairly consistent.