Good morning, and Happy New Year! For some perspective, temperatures on Sunday afternoon peaked at 44 degrees in Houston. This was far below the minimum temperature on the the first morning of the new year, when the low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport bottomed out 75 degrees. Much of the region outside of the city’s urban core, and away from the coast, is seeing a freeze this morning. A light freeze will be possible for areas well inland again tonight, but this morning should yield our coldest weather for awhile.

It’s worth noting that the city’s official station at Bush Intercontinental Airport did record a freeze this morning. This marks the first freezing temperature there since February 20, 2021, the tail end of the Valentine’s Day freeze last year. During that cold spell Houston recorded a freeze seven nights in a row, with the temperature bottoming out at 13 degrees on February 16.

Monday

Skies will be sunny today, with light northerly winds. As a result highs should be able to work their way into the low- to mid-50s. Temperatures tonight should be about 5 degrees warmer than Sunday night, but still rather chilly. As the high pressure system near the surface moves eastward, we’ll begin to see winds shift to come from the southeast by Monday night, and this will begin the process of warming us up.

Tuesday

Highs will accordingly jump back into the mid-60s on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies, and winds of about 10 mph out of the south. Lows drop into the 50s late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

This should be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the mid-70s and mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints won’t be oppressive like they were in late December, but the air won’t exactly be dry, either. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 50s for most.

Thursday

The forecast for Thursday is highly uncertain, as it’s not clear when the next cold front will push through the area. It could be anywhere from Wednesday night through Thursday night. If it’s the former, highs on Thursday may top out in the 60s, if it’s the latter, then expect mid- to high 70s. We’ll see. This front should be dry, bringing no rain with it. Lows on Thursday night will probably drop to around 40 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

After a brief cooldown on Friday, with highs perhaps reaching about 60 degrees, a warmer pattern along with a southerly flow should return for the weekend. We’re probably looking at highs in the mid-70s, or thereabouts, on Saturday and Sunday. The days will be partly sunny, but as a low pressure system moves inland from the Gulf of Mexico there will be a decent chance of rain from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Accumulations of a few tenths of an inch of rain are possible closer to the coast, with lesser amounts inland. Another front should arrive later in the weekend, perhaps on Sunday night, to cool things off somewhat for next week.

Through yesterday, the average temperature in Houston (Bush) is 67.5° for the month of December. Adding an expected 83 and, call it 68 today gets us to 67.8° for the month, shattering the record from 1933 by 3.4 degrees. This will also be the widest gap between warmest and second warmest of any month in Houston. Only August comes close, where the difference between the horrific August of 2011 and 2010 was 2.7 degrees. Basically, this December was Houston’s most anomalous warm month on record. There are a number of other stats and nuggets we could share, but we may save that for a separate post. Our spring fling is almost over though, and it’s time to break out the winter clothes.

Today

More of the same. 80s, sun, clouds, some fog this morning. Today’s record high in Houston is 82°, set back in 1974, and that seems likely to be tied or exceeded. The main difference between yesterday and today will probably be that coastal sea fog. Winds may kick up just enough today to dissipate most of it by afternoon. Look for haze and/or mist at times, however.

Saturday morning & early afternoon

Tomorrow will begin like most other days this month: Warm and humid. Look for temperatures at or above 70 degrees to start the day. It will be quite warm through the afternoon with highs pushing back into the 80s again. The 2006 New Year’s Day record of 81° seems destined to be broken.

Saturday late afternoon into Sunday

Our change in seasons will arrive in two pieces. The first will be a cold front on Saturday afternoon. This front will come through and shift winds from onshore to offshore. Onshore winds may actually be a bit stronger ahead of the front, so look for calmer conditions once the front is through. Temperatures may drop off just a few degrees. Additionally, there could be a shower or two but nothing serious.

The second piece will arrive Saturday night. Look for that to hit the northwest suburbs before Midnight and the city and southeast suburbs and coast around Midnight. There won’t be any mistaking this one.

Temperatures will quickly drop from the 60s into the 40s and winds will kick up out of the north, gusting 25 to 30 mph or even a bit stronger at times. By Sunday morning, temperatures will have fallen into the 30s in most spots, with freezing temperatures north and west of Houston and even some upper-20s possible near Huntsville.

For those of you heading off to services or for a walk on Sunday morning, temperatures will be 30 to 40 degrees colder than they were on Saturday morning, and with wind chill values in the 20s, it will feel 50 degrees colder. Bundle up! The day itself should be fine, just windy and cold with highs in the mid-40s.

Monday

Temperatures will drop steadily on Sunday night, and we should see much of the area, save for maybe the city and immediate coast reach the freezing mark by Monday morning.

This will be a pretty standard freeze for the Houston area, the type we usually see several times a winter. Sensitive plants should be protected, particularly outside the city. If you have a sprinkler system, it’s probably also a good idea to have it shut off and drained. Typical winter preps. But as far as significant problems, we shouldn’t see any.

The rest of Monday will offer a transition back to onshore winds and temperatures bouncing back into the 50s. A freeze is unlikely Monday night anywhere in our area. This will be a quick shot of cold.

Rest of next week

Warmer weather will really be noticeable by Tuesday with temperatures warming well into the 60s. On Wednesday we warm into the 70s again. By Thursday or Friday, another, potentially much weaker front is likely to push into the area to cool us back a few degrees. Model guidance suggests another significant warm-up into next weekend before perhaps more sustained seasonably cool weather for the second week of 2022.

Final word

I just want to echo Eric’s sentiment from yesterday. It’s been a great year for us, between, among other things, launching an app, launching a Spanish language site and bringing Maria on board, being honored by the city of Houston, and arguing with each other about whether September or August is worse.

But we recognize that it’s been another rough year for a lot of folks. I am grateful for the doctors and nurses and medical research community that makes Houston a true global hub for medical research and care. Essential workers, restaurant employees, and so many others who have toiled through sickness, closures, and just mean people, thank you as well. My hope is that 2022 will offer a return to stability, both in life and weather. I’m more hopeful for the former than the latter, but either way, we’ll be here for you. Thanks for relying on us as a source of weather information to keep you and your family prepared and informed. It’s a duty and responsibility we take seriously, and we look forward to continuing doing so in 2022, which hopefully marks a return to somewhat more precedented times. Happy New Year!

Good morning. This will be my final post of 2021—Matt will have an update for you on New Year’s Eve of course. It has been a strange and challenging year. In terms of weather, locally, there has been good and terrible and anomalous weather. Under the “good” category I would say we’ve gone through another year without a disastrous drought, and we saw some of the nicest weather this fall on weekends that I can remember. The “terrible” category includes the extremely hard freeze and its effects in February, and Hurricane Nicholas in September, which packed a surprisingly strong punch although it could barely be classified as a Category 1 storm. Finally, the heat this December has definitely been “anomalous,” as Houston has set or tied 6 records this month, and Galveston 14, with more to come.

My wish for the new year is better weather, of course. But I’m also hopeful for other reasons. The COVID-19 pandemic is now entering its third year, and it has fractured our communities and killed our loved ones. Now, I believe that we are probably seeing a transition to it becoming an endemic disease, with less virulence, better treatments, and ultimately less transmission due to widespread immunity. Omicron is likely a harbinger of this, and hopefully will be responsible for the last major spike in hospitalizations. So while the next few weeks may be pretty terrible, I strongly believe that a brighter future awaits us. My heroes in 2021 are all of the nurses, doctors, and medical researchers who toiled to help so many, through such a difficult time.

Looking ahead, what I can say for sure, is this: A colder near-term future awaits us. Many of us will see our first freeze of the season by Monday morning, if not sooner.

Thursday

The front made it to much of the area, knocking temperatures into the 60s this morning across the area. Its effects will be short-lived, with southeast winds resuming today and highs likely to reach about 80 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will only drop to around 70 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions inland.

Friday

The final day of 2021 will be warm once again, with highs in the low 80s and partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be a bit gusty, out of the south at about 20 mph. New Year’s Eve evening will be mild, with temperatures in the 70s, and partly to mostly cloudy skies. It will be plenty humid, but aside from that there is nothing to complain about as we bring in 2022.

New Year’s Day

The only real question is when the cold front will arrive. The models have been bouncing around a little bit, and now it appears that an initial front will push down to around Interstate 10 on Saturday afternoon, and be followed by a much stronger surge of colder and drier air on Saturday night. For most of the area, then, Saturday will see highs of around 80 degrees, and for coastal areas those warm conditions should persist through the evening. Some scattered, light showers will be possible during the day and overnight. Temperature wise, it will be a whole new world outside on Sunday morning, with sunrise temperatures likely in the 30s for nearly all of the area.

Sunday and beyond

COLD. It now looks as though highs probably won’t get out of the 40s for most of the area on Sunday, and with gusty northerly winds this will be a cold, sunny day if you need to be outside. Clear skies and lighter winds will lead to a very cold night on Sunday, with most of the Houston region away from the coast likely to see a freeze on Monday morning.

We’ll gradually warm up next week, probably reaching the 70s on Wednesday, with another cooldown Thursday. Details to come. Happy New Year, everyone!

Another day, another handful of records set for both high temperatures and warm overnight conditions. As of 6 am this morning, the temperature at Hobby Airport is 75 degrees, a staggering 30 degrees warmer than normal for late December. A weak front will approach the area and bring some drier air to inland areas tonight, but I don’t think these conditions will reach as far as Highway 59. After this front washes out we’ll see warm weather until a strong front arrives on New Year’s Day.

Wednesday

Today will see partly to mostly sunny skies, with temperatures rising into the low- to mid-80s. Winds will generally be light, out of the southwest. The aforementioned front will sag southeastward this evening, likely reaching College Station a few hours before midnight, and maybe as far as Katy and The Woodlands by around sunrise on Thursday. Otherwise, it will be another warm and muggy night.

Thursday

Inland areas behind the front may stay in the 70s on Thursday, but most of the rest of the region will be back around 80 degrees. Skies should turn partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon after a cloudy start. Thursday night will be, you guessed it, very warm.

New Year’s Eve

The final day of 2021 will see partly sunny skies and very warm temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. The evening will be mild for any festivities, with temperatures in the mid-70s and likely mostly cloudy skies. A very slight chance of light precipitation comes into the forecast after midnight.

New Year’s Day

Change is on the way in 2022. After a muggy morning, it now looks like the front will reach inland parts of Houston by Saturday morning, and likely push down to the coast by around noon or shortly thereafter. This is a little sooner than our previous forecasts. Some light rain is possible with the front, but it may well be a dry passage. Colder air moves in quickly overnight, with temperatures dropping into the 30s by Sunday morning. A freeze is likely for inland areas, although the “freeze line” will remain in flux for some time yet.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday will be cold, with a northerly wind and highs likely topping out at around 50 degrees. This will feel especially cold after the very warm December weather, and Monday night will again flirt with a freeze. We’ll gradually warm back up to the 70s by the middle of the week, but another front by Thursday or so should cool us down again toward the end of next week. Rain chances remain low throughout the period.