Good morning. A “cool” front has essentially stalled across the metro area, and this will lead to partly sunny conditions today and Monday, with about a 50 percent chance to rain to go along with temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Some rains today could briefly pulse up into strong thunderstorms, so be weather aware if you are outdoors.

The main purpose of this post, however, is to discuss the tropics and impacts to the Gulf of Mexico. We have had lots of questions over the last day because a single model run of the GFS on Saturday appeared to bring “Hurricane Grace” toward Texas late this week. We cannot emphasize this enough: a single model run, especially an outlier, should always be looked up with a high amount of skepticism. Anyway, herein is what we know as of Sunday morning about Fred and Grace.

Tropical Storm Fred

Fred has re-formed in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and confidence is fairly high that it will get pulled north later today, and head toward Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Fred could become a strong tropical storm before landfall, so there may be some wind impacts in the Panhandle to go along with several inches of rainfall. By Tuesday afternoon it should be moving well inland and weakening quickly.

Tropical Storm Grace

For our purposes, Grace is the storm of more interest, although the forecast is highly uncertain. As of 8am CT on Sunday morning, Grace is rather disorganized and barely a tropical storm. Its center is south of Puerto Rico and likely to move onshore Hispaniola (which is two countries, the Dominican Republic and Haiti) during the next 24 hours. After a devastating earthquake on Saturday the last thing Haiti needs is a tropical storm, but that is nonetheless what is coming on Monday.

The first real question is whether Grace survives its interactions with Hispaniola and Cuba from Monday through Wednesday. I think there is probably at least a 50 percent chance the tropical system gets shredded by the terrain of these two large Caribbean islands.

However, if some low-pressure center emerges into the Gulf of Mexico around Wednesday, what happens then? The environment in the Gulf of Mexico, in terms of dry air and shear, will be OK but not ideal for intensification. I would put the chance of Grace ultimately becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico at about 10 to 20 percent. That is a rough estimate based upon ensemble forecasts, and is only to help you calibrate your own expectations right now.

In terms of track, Grace is really hard to pin down because a) its center is ill defined, b) this center will likely to jump around as it interacts with land and/or re-forms in a new location, and c) where it would ultimately make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico is a forecast still 6 to 8 days from now. However, should a center survive interactions with the Caribbean Islands and emerge into the Gulf next week, I expect it would move more generally westerly, toward Texas or Mexico, with impacts perhaps next weekend.

However I can’t stress enough the uncertainty with all of this, and that there will probably be some wild swings in model forecasts in the coming days.

The bottom line is that we’re in the middle of August, and this is a time of year when we are always watching the tropics keenly. Any time there is the possibility of a low-pressure center entering the Gulf of Mexico during August we need to monitor it. And we will. But for now the overall chance that Grace becomes a serious and direct threat to Texas remains fairly low.

We’ll have a full update on Houston’s weather and the tropics on Monday morning.

Not a ton of storms yesterday, but those that did occur were noisy, and one even produced a tornado in northwest Harris County.

Tornadoes aren’t exactly commonplace in summertime storms around here, and nothing about yesterday was especially remarkable from a severe weather risk standpoint. This tornado may have been more like a “landspout” rather than a classic tornado. But Thursday’s event serves as a good example of how a tornado can occur if the right conditions come together, even briefly. Sometimes these things just happen. Moving on, we have another pair of fairly typical summertime days before things get perhaps a little more unsettled later this weekend.

Friday & Saturday

Both today and tomorrow look fairly similar for the most part with sunshine, some clouds, and hot, humid weather. Look for highs in the mid-90s, possibly upper-90s. Lows will be generally in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Rain chances are in the general 20 to 40 percent range both days, with Friday perhaps seeing higher risks south and Saturday seeing higher risks north.

Sunday

I think I’ve used the word “front” this summer more times than in any previous summer in my almost 10 years in Houston. Yet another “cool” front will approach the region Sunday. As per usual in August, it won’t clear our area, and we almost certainly won’t see less humidity. But it will likely be enough to help increase our shower & storm chances closer to 50 percent or even a bit higher. So, of course, that means some neighborhoods likely won’t see rain this weekend, but others could get doused with a couple inches in a short time.

With clouds and showers more prevalent regionally on Sunday, we will probably see slightly cooler temperatures, and highs should top off in the low to mid-90s with morning lows in the 70s.

Early next week

I think Monday will just be a logical extension of Sunday’s weather with slightly higher than usual storm coverage during the day and temperatures perhaps held back a degree or two due to clouds. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the pattern should gradual resolve back to more typical August with daily, sea breeze driven showers and storms and highs generally in the mid-90s and lows in the 70s.

Tropics

Fred has struggled a good bit since yesterday, barely holding on at times. But Fred’s not quite dead yet we don’t think, and it looks as though it will at least try to regain a little momentum as it lifts north into the Eastern Gulf. It is not a concern for Texas at this time.

Fred should still struggle, even if it better organizes some, as the system deals with wind shear that is not expected to relent much between now and landfall. Look for a moderate tropical storm, probably at worst. Rainfall of between 4 and 10 inches is possible along and east of where Fred tracks, meaning a good bit of Florida will get a good bit of rain. Georgia and Alabama may also see some fairly healthy rain.

Behind Fred, the system called “Invest 95L” will continue along west-northwest, with high odds of developing into a tropical system by the time it gets to the northern Caribbean islands. It should face similar challenges to Fred, so I’d only expect slow, gradual development at this time. We should continue to monitor Invest 95L’s progress, but at this point, our best models continue to say this is unlikely to be a western Gulf threat. Another area of storms may emerge off Africa this weekend that will have some slight odds to slowly develop also.

Houston will continue to see hot summertime weather, but with the absence of dominant high pressure the region will also see scattered rain chances each day. The pattern changes slightly on Sunday, as a weak “cool” front pushes into the area. This may spark heavier rainfall in some areas, but the details remain sketchy.

Thursday

Some fairly sporty showers popped up over parts of the Houston region on Wednesday, and we could see that again today with fairly high atmospheric moisture levels. I think coverage will probably be about 30 percent, with areas east of Interstate 45 having a better chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm. Highs, otherwise, will be in the mid-90s with partly sunny skies. Any showers should end as the Sun sets. Winds will be light, out of the south.

Friday

This should be another hot day, with mostly sunny skies, highs in the mid-90s, and rain chances in the 20 to 30 percent range.

Saturday

More of the same, with a chance of an afternoon shower, sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s.

Sunday

The aforementioned cold front will not be particularly noticeable on Sunday. High temperatures may be a couple of degrees cooler, and dewpoints slightly lower. But it’s still going to feel like summer out there with partly to mostly sunny skies. What the front may do is induce a rising motion in the atmosphere, which would increase rain chances and at least bring the potential for heavy rain into play. I don’t think this rain will be particularly widespread, but a few areas may pick up some stronger showers on Sunday. Hopefully Matt can better pin down the details of this in tomorrow’s forecast.

Next week

We’ll see more August-like heat next week with highs generally in the mid-90s. The main question remains whether the upper-level pattern will spin a few disturbances toward Houston, and thus some reasonably healthy rain chances, or keep us mostly dry. The jury is still out on this, I’m afraid, although I’d welcome a somewhat wetter pattern as things have really dried out this month.

Tropics

Not a whole lot has changed. Fred has weakened into a tropical depression overnight, but its main threat was always going to be rain anyway so that’s not really a big deal. It still should regain tropical storm status as it moves away from Cuba, and should bring 2 to 8 inches of rain to parts of Florida this weekend.

Invest 95L is the tropical system further out in the Atlantic. This system most likely will follow a track similar to Fred, although we can’t entirely rule out a more westerly path into the Caribbean Sea. Either way, the atmosphere isn’t overly favorable, so it seems likely that 95L may struggle to intensify much as Fred has.

All in all, for Texas in mid-August, things look pretty good in the tropics right now. We have about six weeks left in the “prime time” of tropics season for our state.

Good morning. Our overall forecast remains more or less the same, with hot August weather on tap for days and days and days. Some relief may be found in scattered to isolated storms, but overall rain chances for most parts of the region remain about 20 percent each day. I’ll say more about the tropics below, but for now I wanted to mention the Perseid meteor shower. This celestial event, often the best of the year, peaks Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

The best time to see the show will be during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. The forecast is favorable, with clear skies likely. For those of us in Houston, the biggest problem is always finding a wide-open dark sky. Our metro area is simply bright with all of its development. I’ve included a map of the region, at night, taken about five years ago from space to help guide you toward some darker skies.

Wednesday

The National Weather Service has posted a heat advisory for today in Houston, but if you’ve lived in the region for any period of time, conditions will not surprise you. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-90s with lots of humidity and mostly sunny skies. The heat index will peak during the afternoon hours, so limit your exposure at that time. Winds will be light, out of the southeast. As with recent days there will be a few scattered showers this afternoon, but your overall chances of seeing rain are probably about 20 percent.

Thursday and Friday

Not much changes toward the end of the work week, with continuing highs in the mid-90s and lots of sunshine.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring more of the same, in terms of heat and humidity. A “cool” front will push into the region and reach the coast later on Saturday, but you won’t really notice its effect. Mainly, it could serve to increase rain chances later on Saturday and Sunday to perhaps about 30 percent. Skies should remain mostly sunny and I think any showers will be fleeting.

Next week

There’s a chance we may see some better rain chances over the region next week in the Tuesday or Wednesday period, but that’s predicated on an upper-level low sliding south into Texas. I’m not sure that will actually happen, so most likely we’re just going to continue to see hot and sunny weather.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Fred formed on Tuesday evening, and for the most part it’s behaving as expected. The storm will move across the Caribbean Islands this week before reaching the Florida Keys this weekend. After that time it should turn to the northwest and then north. The main impact from Fred, which most likely will remain a tropical storm, should be rainfall. Parts of Florida could see 2 to 10 inches of rain this weekend.

Behind Fred there’s another tropical disturbance we mentioned yesterday. The National Hurricane Center now gives this system a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm. Most likely it will follow a track similar to that of Fred, which would preclude it from having any effect on Texas or the Western Gulf of Mexico. But it’s too early to have any definitive comment on that.