Good morning! We really hope you enjoyed yesterday’s weather. It was truly sublime, though if you’re a seasonal allergy sufferer like me, it was not quite as nice as it could have been. Yesterday was the highest tree pollen value I’ve seen in Houston this year, and as you’d expect it seems to be following a fairly typical pattern for spring. Below is a chart of total tree pollen in Houston from January 1 through April 30 over the last 5 years, plus 2022 so far. Keep in mind that there is no data for weekends or holidays, and there are currently multiple missing days in March unfortunately.

Where the pattern may be breaking down is on which date the “peak” of tree pollen occurs. I will confirm this once March’s archive is published, but if we go by what data we do have, the peak of tree pollen occurred like this in Houston:

Year	Peak Date of Pollen
2022 (so far)	March 31
2021	March 26
2020	March 6
2019	March 21
2018	March 14
2017	March 14

Assuming yesterday was our peak day for pollen, it came rather late. Data in Houston goes back to 2013, and this year would be the latest peak since at least then. That peak date is contingent on numerous things like rain, temperatures, wind, etc. So each year will be different, obviously, but this year does indeed seem to be peaking late. Based on previous seasons, we likely have about 10 to 14 more days of really high pollen before things begin to fall off steadily. There is hope for us.

Today

On to the weather, and today should be another good one. We will likely see some clouds at times, but for the most part today will be classified as mostly sunny. Look for highs around 80, give or take a few degrees. Winds will be mainly light, but up just a notch over yesterday.

Weekend

Saturday should be a fair day for most folks, with a decent amount of sunshine around. There will likely be some showers with a passing disturbance and approaching weak front, but many or most of you may not see much of anything come from that tomorrow. I’m guessing the clouds and shower chance will be highest in the morning hours, followed by clearing for the afternoon.

Sunday should be just fine with plentiful sunshine with daytime highs in the low-80s and morning lows around 60 or so each day (a few degrees cooler outside the city). Winds will be variable but generally 5 to 15 mph.

Early next week

Monday should begin fine with a mix of clouds and sun. We should be able to make the low-80s after a mild mid-60s start to the day. You will notice a bit more of an onshore breeze Monday, with 15 mph winds, and a bit gustier at times near the coast. Additionally, it looks like we’ll see some showers and thunderstorms develop on Monday afternoon.

The SPC has published their day 4 severe outlook and included the Houston area, primarily north of I-10 as having a chance for severe thunderstorms. We will likely be dealing with some “capping” in the atmosphere, as we normally do down here in spring. This increase in temperatures with altitude normally helps limit our severe weather risk near the Gulf, as opposed to what is normally seen to our north. For now, while severe storms are possible on Monday, we are comfortable saying the highest odds may be north of the Houston metro area. We’ll obviously have an update on this Monday.

Tuesday and beyond

Any storms on Monday will occur well ahead of a cold front. That front won’t actually get here until Wednesday. So we may see lingering showers on Tuesday morning, followed by clearing and warm weather Tuesday, with low to mid-80s. Wednesday could be quite warm with slightly less humidity and sunshine. Wednesday’s high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper-80s right now.

For those that want more pleasant weather, it should arrive for a couple days behind Wednesday’s front. We will see lower humidity and sunshine, along with slightly cooler temperatures. More on that next week!

Good morning. Temperatures have dropped into the upper 40s for inland areas, with most of the metro area seeing low 50s this morning. Highs this afternoon will reach the upper 70s, with sunny skies and light winds. For me, this is the kind of very nearly perfect weather we sometimes see during spring and fall in Houston. The only real concern today is tree pollen, but all of the wind and rain on Wednesday should have knocked a lot of that out of the air. In short, if you can spend some time outside today or this evening, you really should do so!

Thursday

Today started brilliantly. If you were up early this morning, that was Venus shining brightly in the eastern sky, near the horizon before sunrise. With weak high pressure in place, winds today will be light, generally out of the north at 5 mph or so. This will provide a nice contrast from the last several days when we were first buffeted by a strong southerly flow, and then winds quickly shifted to come from the northwest on Wednesday with a cold front. Now things will settle down for awhile. With sunny skies, high temperatures will warm into the upper 70s, and lows tonight should drop to within a degree or two of Wednesday night’s lows. With dewpoints in the low 40s, the air will be pleasantly dry. I mean, come on. On a day like this you could almost forgive Houston’s summer.

Friday

Another day not dissimilar to Thursday, but as light to moderate winds shift to come from the east, we’ll start to see atmospheric moisture levels creep up, and this will generate a few clouds. Highs will again be in the upper 70s, probably, but overnight lows likely won’t drop below 60 degrees in Houston.

Saturday

We’ll see a warming trend this weekend as the flow remains southerly, but winds should remain fairly moderate in the 5 to 10 mph range. Highs on Saturday will probably top out between 80 and 85 degrees for most areas, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and slightly sticky dewpoints in the low 60s. Lows on Saturday night should drop to around 60 degrees.

Sunday

Another warmish day, like Saturday, with highs in the 80s, and partly to mostly sunny skies. At some point clouds will start to build in response to increasing atmospheric moisture, but at this point I don’t think that will happen until Sunday afternoon or, more likely Sunday evening. Rain chances this weekend are low, probably 10 percent or less.

Next week

We’ll continue to see warm weather, with temperatures in the mid- to possibly even upper-80s early next week ahead of a cold front arriving later on Tuesday or Wednesday. There are some decent rain chances on Monday night into Tuesday, but right now the forecast models aren’t too enthused about accumulations. We’ll see. At this distant vantage point, the end of next week looks quite nice, with highs in the upper 70s or 80s degrees and drier air. Hopefully the spectacular weather lines up with the weekend!

Good morning. A thin line of showers associated with a cool front will move through the region this morning, setting the stage for a breezy afternoon. This will lead to mostly sunny weather for most of the remainder of this week, and a warm weekend.

Wednesday

Conditions are warm and muggy in Houston this morning, with lows only falling into the 70s across much of the region. The front should reach central Houston by late morning, and push off the coast by around noon or shortly thereafter. Some showers and and briefly strong thunderstorms may accompany the front’s passage, especially north of Interstate 10, but they will quickly move through. After the front much drier air moves in, and a “red flag” warning is in effect for the area from 1 pm to 7 pm as northwesterly winds gust to 20 or 25 mph. This means that any fires that start will spread quickly, so please take care. Winds will slacken tonight as lows generally drop into the low 50s.

Thursday

A lovely day, with sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the upper 70s. Lows should be similar to Wednesday night, albeit a tad warmer.

Friday

Expect another spring-like day, with mostly sunny skies. There will be a bit more humidity as winds turn easterly, however, and lows Friday night will only drop into the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Conditions will be warmer this weekend, with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the low 60s. We’ve still got a few questions about the details, but most likely we’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies to go along with moderate southerly winds.

Next week

As moisture piles up in our atmosphere, humidity levels will increase further early next week, with highs remaining in the in low- to mid-80s. Nights will start to become muggy again. Rain chances increase on Monday night and Tuesday ahead of the next front, which should arrive on Wednesday or so. This will probably push overnight lows back into the 50s.

Good morning. Today will see very windy conditions as the onshore flow kicks into high gear, and this will set up a frontal passage on Wednesday morning. This front will bring a thin line of rain showers, which may include a few strong thunderstorms. This will set the stage for mostly sunny, and milder weather for the rest of the week.

Tuesday

During the spring we get days like this, when there is higher pressure offshore and a potent low pressure system in the middle of the United States. This effectively sets up a tight pressure gradient and strong onshore winds. Intuitively, to me, these kinds of days feel like summer is trying to force its way back into the area after a few months of mostly cooler and drier weather. Anyway, it will feel like that today, with southerly winds gusting as high as 30 to 35 mph this afternoon and overnight. Despite partly to mostly cloudy skies, highs should still get into the low 80s. Dewpoints in the 60s will make it feel fairly humid. Lows tonight may not drop below 70 in parts of Houston.

Wednesday

The aforementioned low pressure system will drive a surface front through the area on Wednesday, likely reaching areas north and west of Houston by around sunrise, reaching the city during the mid-morning hours, and the coast around noon. A line of thin showers and thunderstorms should accompany the front, but overall accumulations will probably only be on the order of a few tenths of an inch of rain. We can’t rule out a few thunderstorms, but by far the better chances for severe weather lie well to our north and east (which you should note if you’re traveling toward Louisiana, Mississippi, or Alabama). Dry air and clearing skies will see temperatures jump up into the mid-80s, or so, during the afternoon hours before lows drop into the low- to mid-50s overnight.

Thursday

As noted yesterday, Thursday’s weather should be superlative. Look for a high near 80, with sunny skies, light winds, and dry air. Lows Thursday night will again drop into the mid 50s.

Friday

Another nice day, although there will be some clouds perhaps, and humidity levels will start to creep up along with the onshore flow. Highs should again be near 80 degrees.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

A reinforcing cold front should arrive Friday night or Saturday morning, bringing a low chance of rain back into the forecast. However, this should clear out by the afternoon. Look for highs in the low 80s on Saturday with clearing skies, and around 80 degrees on Sunday with sunny skies. More clouds return Monday, with a healthy chance of rain entering the forecast by Tuesday or so of next week.