Hurricane Ida has rapidly intensified overnight, seeing a steep pressure fall and maximum winds increasing to 150 mph. Very nearly a Category 5 hurricane, Ida should reach the southern coast of Louisiana, about 50 miles due south of New Orleans, around Noon today.

This will be the most devastating hurricane to hit the region since Katrina, 16 years ago today. For some areas, in some ways, it will be worse. The eyewall of the storm will pass very near to the New Orleans metro area. Hurricane-force winds extend across a 70-mile diameter.

Over the next 24 hours parts of Southeastern Louisiana will experience sustained winds well above 120 mph with higher gusts, 15 to 20 inches of rainfall, and a storm surge of 12 to 15 feet. For the New Orleans area, the winds and rainfall should be significantly greater than experienced during Katrina, although the surge should be less. This storm will offer a stiff test of the levee system built after Katrina struck the below sea-level region in 2005.

Ida will be barreling into a low-lying, swampy part of the U.S. Gulf Coast. The storm surge will move easily over this region for miles. While parts of the coast of sparsely populated, there is also major infrastructure in harm’s way. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson have an excellent rundown of damages this region experienced during Katrina, including a complete shutdown to the Port of New Orleans and weeks of delayed barge traffic. Impacts will be similarly severe this time around. Food and fuel prices should rise across the country.

There is no way to sugarcoat this situation. For those who survive, months of misery await the inhabitants of Southeastern Louisiana. Normally recovery efforts are led in Louisiana out of Baton Rouge, the state capital, which is about 100 miles inland. However, Ida is forecast to pass just east of Baton Rouge, with sustained winds of 100 mph. It seems very probable that Ida will knock out power along the entirety of the region’s most populated core, from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. The state—which has one of the worst COVID-19 outbreaks in the country, and nearly 500 patients in ventilators—will lose much of its ability to function. This is just an exceptionally grim situation.

As a forecaster there is not much else to say. The storm is here, and it is a gut punch. Ida is a nightmare scenario for the state of Louisiana. We must stand ready to help them survive, recover, and rebuild.

Good Saturday morning. Ida is strengthening steadily this morning as it moves into the heart of the exceptionally warm Gulf waters between Cuba and Louisiana. Not much has changed since yesterday in terms of the forecast track or, unfortunately, forecast intensity.

If you look at the satellite loop above, Hurricane Ida’s eye is emerging, indicated by the little green “dot” in the middle of the storm, an indication that the system is strengthening.

Unfortunately, very little has changed since yesterday. The track is essentially unchanged, with the National Hurricane Center predicting a track toward Morgan City, LA, with a little wiggle room on either side.

The intensity forecast is mostly unchanged as well, with modeling implying that a major (category 3 or 4) hurricane is almost certainly going to be what makes landfall. At this point, folks along the eastern Louisiana coast should be preparing for significant hurricane impacts.

Storm surge values are mostly unchanged today too,

A significant 10 to 15 foot surge is possible between Morgan City, Grand Isle, and the mouth of the Mississippi River. Slightly lower values can be expected just southeast of New Orleans. It is tempting to compare Ida with Katrina, but there are a number of differences from track to intensity to size. For New Orleans, in Katrina, winds were out of the east and then out of the north. With Ida, winds will be out of the southeast most of the time, which means different impacts this time around. Hopefully far less severe, particularly given the distance of landfall from the city. But it’s obviously much too close for comfort.

In addition to the wind and surge, as we’ve noted Ida will have a ton of moisture as it comes ashore. This will lead to significant rainfall and probably freshwater flooding issues all across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi.

Maximum totals of 10 to 15 inches will be possible along and east of where Ida comes ashore, leading to significant flash flooding and river and bayou flooding in eastern Louisiana. Significant flash flooding issues will likely continue as Ida lifts north into Mississippi as well.

All in all, Ida will be a very, very serious storm for our neighbors to the east, and our thoughts are with them.

Local update

Just a quick local update for the weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible today. We expect coverage to diminish tomorrow, so less chance of rain. And even less chance of rain is with us on Monday. Look for temperatures in the low-90s today and mid-90s tomorrow. Mid, if not upper-90s will be possible on Monday. Winds here should be out of the north or west after tomorrow and be no worse than 10 to 15 mph or so. Some minor runup is possible along the coast with rough surf and strong rip currents, so exercise caution if you’ll be swimming tomorrow or Monday.

Barring any significant changes with Ida, Eric will have our next update on Sunday morning.

Hurricane Ida has strengthened significantly today, going from barely tropical storm status to a Category 1 hurricane with 80-mph sustained winds. Unfortunately, there is little to inhibit further strengthening this weekend. After Ida moves across Cuba tonight, the combination of low wind shear, a moist atmosphere, and blazing hot Gulf of Mexico sea temperatures are ideal for rapid intensification. For this reason, the latest National Hurricane Center forecast brings Ida to a Category 4 major hurricane before landfall along the central Louisiana coast on Sunday afternoon. Confidence is very high in this track.

This post will address what such a storm will actually mean for people on the ground. First up is a forecast for “wind gusts.” This is different than sustained winds, which are how forecaster define the intensity of a storm. But gusts are an appropriate measure of maximum winds. Here’s a forecast for the swath of highest gusts from Ida. It is not gospel, but it offers a good approximation of what to expect, where. There will be major structure damage and widespread power outages.

The next threat from a hurricane like Ida is storm surge. The graphic below from the National Hurricane Center is the best estimate for the combination of surge and tide above normal water levels. Ida will bring a dangerous storm surge to the Mississippi River delta area, and parts of New Orleans not behind the levee system.

The final major threat from a hurricane like Ida is inland rainfall. The storm is going to keep moving, but it will slow a little as it approaches the coast and moves inland. This should allow for some areas of southeastern Louisiana to experience 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, which will be falling on top of a significant storm surge. These are dangerous amounts of water for unprotected areas.

There is not much of a silver lining for this storm, which is set up to deliver a gut punch to the state of Louisiana. The only thing we can offer is that the western part of the state—including Lake Charles—that was pummeled during the 2020 hurricane season should escape the worst of Ida. After this storm moves away from New Orleans later on Monday and Tuesday it will be time to help. That is something the generous people of Houston are very good at.

Matt or I will have an update on Saturday before noon.

Good morning. Some locally heavy rainfall since Thursday evening has added up to over an inch between La Porte and Seabrook and 2 to 3 inches or even a bit more right on the Brazoria/Galveston County line between Alvin and Pearland.

We aren’t done with rain just yet.

Today

This morning is starting with rain up and down the coast and little to nothing inland. This is not related to Tropical Storm Ida, but rather what we call an “inverted trough” along the coast, not something that’s uncommon. That area will move inland today, and while the current coastal rains should gradually fizzle, with daytime heating, some scattered showers and storms will pop up inland through this afternoon. Some inland places may not see rain, but those that do could see locally heavy rain.

Temperatures should still manage to get into the upper-80s to low-90s today, though it may be a couple degrees cooler south and east of the city, where clouds and rain will linger for a few hours this morning.

Weekend

Saturday should see additional support for scattered showers and storms across the area. The day should not be a washout, but you will have to dodge some raindrops or thunder in parts of the area. We may see the rain follow a similar pattern to today, with more along the coast in the overnight and early morning, spreading inland during the daytime.

We begin to feel Ida’s influence on Sunday. While no direct impacts are expected in Houston, the subsidence (sinking, drier air) created on the west side of a broader hurricane circulation tends to reduce rain chances and can lead to some hotter weather. Sunday should still see at least a few isolated to scattered showers, but coverage will probably be considerably less than today or Saturday.

Look for high temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s on Saturday and then low to mid-90s on Sunday. Morning lows should be in the 70s. Winds this weekend will shift from the east to more from the north or northeast and should remain in the 5 to 15 mph range. They may increase a bit more offshore into Monday. Impacts from Ida will be limited to some rough surf building on Sunday. Importantly, if you’ll be at the beach, rip currents are expected to strengthen considerably on Sunday, so please use caution if you’re headed into the water.

Next week

Ida’s drier side influence may stay with us Monday, and high pressure should build in for Monday and Tuesday. This should keep rain chances quite low to start the week. Expect sunshine, a few clouds and mid to upper-90s. More typical rain chances may return for the middle and end of next week. It’s too early to speculate much on if we will have to watch another tropical system later next week or weekend. But there aren’t really any credible, consistent model solutions that point to that happening right now. We’ll continue to watch.

Tropical Storm Ida

Ida is slowly getting itself organized this morning near the Cayman Islands. It is expected to pass over western Cuba tonight, and then resume basically a beeline northwest into the Louisiana coast by Sunday night. The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting a major hurricane to make landfall on the central or eastern Louisiana coast.

Ida is still dealing with a bit of shear and disorganization this morning, but it’s definitely strengthening a bit. With all this in mind, there could be some further track nudges east or west. The NHC forecast has trended more east in general, but it’s held a pretty steady landfall point. But given that track error is still typically 100 miles or so, there is a little wiggle room here.

But for us in Houston that should not make much difference in what we experience unless perhaps we’re sitting in a boat offshore. With 6 to 10 foot waves expected offshore, this could lead to a little run up or minor coastal flooding in the usual coastal trouble spots. A storm that comes a little more west could yield a little more runup and vice versa. But for the most part no serious issues are expected in our area. Beaumont/Port Arthur and Lake Charles still look good for now, but those areas should continue to monitor trends through the day, just in case the western core of the storm drifts a little closer due to track adjustments. But direct, full fledged impacts would be highly unlikely given the track forecast, model forecasts, and historical error.

Unfortunately for folks in central or eastern Louisiana, the same cannot be said, and in addition to wind and rain, storm surge will be an issue as well. The current peak surge forecast (water level above ground if it occurs at high tide) is 7 to 11 feet across most of eastern Louisiana.

I know people likely have concerns for eastern Louisiana seeing this. There are protections in place there that should be able to help mitigate surge flooding due to a storm of this magnitude in populated areas. For eastern Louisiana, these surge values are forecast to be a few feet higher than experienced during Hurricane Zeta last autumn, which tracked just east of where Ida should go. Ida will be coming in out of the southeast though, not the due south or southwest like Zeta, so there are further differences there. Whatever the case, folks in that region need to prepare for impacts from a major hurricane Sunday into Monday morning.

Eric will have another update for you no later than 5 P.M. this evening.