Good morning. Our overall forecast remains more or less the same, with hot August weather on tap for days and days and days. Some relief may be found in scattered to isolated storms, but overall rain chances for most parts of the region remain about 20 percent each day. I’ll say more about the tropics below, but for now I wanted to mention the Perseid meteor shower. This celestial event, often the best of the year, peaks Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

The best time to see the show will be during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. The forecast is favorable, with clear skies likely. For those of us in Houston, the biggest problem is always finding a wide-open dark sky. Our metro area is simply bright with all of its development. I’ve included a map of the region, at night, taken about five years ago from space to help guide you toward some darker skies.

Wednesday

The National Weather Service has posted a heat advisory for today in Houston, but if you’ve lived in the region for any period of time, conditions will not surprise you. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-90s with lots of humidity and mostly sunny skies. The heat index will peak during the afternoon hours, so limit your exposure at that time. Winds will be light, out of the southeast. As with recent days there will be a few scattered showers this afternoon, but your overall chances of seeing rain are probably about 20 percent.

Thursday and Friday

Not much changes toward the end of the work week, with continuing highs in the mid-90s and lots of sunshine.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring more of the same, in terms of heat and humidity. A “cool” front will push into the region and reach the coast later on Saturday, but you won’t really notice its effect. Mainly, it could serve to increase rain chances later on Saturday and Sunday to perhaps about 30 percent. Skies should remain mostly sunny and I think any showers will be fleeting.

Next week

There’s a chance we may see some better rain chances over the region next week in the Tuesday or Wednesday period, but that’s predicated on an upper-level low sliding south into Texas. I’m not sure that will actually happen, so most likely we’re just going to continue to see hot and sunny weather.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Fred formed on Tuesday evening, and for the most part it’s behaving as expected. The storm will move across the Caribbean Islands this week before reaching the Florida Keys this weekend. After that time it should turn to the northwest and then north. The main impact from Fred, which most likely will remain a tropical storm, should be rainfall. Parts of Florida could see 2 to 10 inches of rain this weekend.

Behind Fred there’s another tropical disturbance we mentioned yesterday. The National Hurricane Center now gives this system a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm. Most likely it will follow a track similar to that of Fred, which would preclude it from having any effect on Texas or the Western Gulf of Mexico. But it’s too early to have any definitive comment on that.

Good morning. Houston’s typical weather for August will continue on schedule. That means heat, humidity, and for a lucky, very few, perhaps an afternoon shower. Otherwise we’re going to see highs in the mid-90s for days, and plenty of sunshine. We’re also monitoring the tropics, where “Fred” is likely to form later today.

Tuesday

Torrid Tuesday will see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances are probably only about 10 percent this afternoon, Winds will be moderate, at about 10 mph out of the south with slightly higher gusts. Overnight lows will struggle to fall below 80 degrees for much of the area, so it will definitely be sticky.

Wednesday

Wickedly warm Wednesday may see rain chances a little bit higher south of Interstate 10, but otherwise be a lot like Tuesday.

Thursday and Friday

Turned up Thursday and Fiery Friday will see more of the same, with approximately a 20 percent chance of a brief afternoon shower and otherwise hot and mostly sunny conditions.

Saturday and Sunday

Sultry Saturday and Sweltering Sunday—OK, I’ll stop that—should see more of the same. However, rain chances may increase slightly on Saturday and Saturday night as a weak front approaches the region. This front should not change our temperatures much, but may induce enough lift in the atmosphere to bring a 30 percent chance, or so, of rain. Otherwise expect highs in the mid-90s. This hot, August-like pattern should continue into next week.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center started tracking “Potential Tropical Cyclone 6” on Monday. Why the weird name? This is a relatively new product forecasters use when they expect a storm to form, and want to give residents some warning before the storm is directly upon them. In this case, people living in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba are more aware that a tropical storm is likely to form today. If and when it forms, the storm will be named “Fred.”

There is a fair amount of confidence in the forecast track for Fred across the Caribbean Islands, and approaching southern Florida late Friday or early Saturday. After that it probably will go into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and track toward the Florida panhandle. It’s a little too far out to have high confidence, but the coming weekend does look wet in Florida. Fortunately, due to wind shear, chances are Fred remains a tropical storm rather than becoming a hurricane. But again, time will tell. There is no threat to Texas.

One other system of note is in the far eastern Atlantic, having only recently moved off of Africa into the ocean. Forecast models are fairly bullish on this system eventually developing as it tracks westward across the Atlantic Ocean. A lot of models, including the European, bring this system along a track much like that of Fred, across the Caribbean Islands and toward Florida. However, it is possible that this system follows a more due westerly track, reaching the Caribbean Sea about a week from now. In that case it would become something we would have to monitor more closely in Texas. But that is a long, long, long way off and not worth worrying about at all.

For those of you who have lived through August a time or two in Houston, you’ll know there’s really not much escaping the heat. Fortunately, we’re not going to fall under a classic heat dome this week, so highs should remain below the triple digits. But there will be enough high pressure to keep rain chances fairly low. The bottom line is that it’s an easy forecast: hot, humid, with scattered afternoon rain chances. The tropics are more interesting, so we’ll discuss them below as well.

Monday

Did you like Sunday’s weather? Because that is what in the cards for today, with highs in the mid-90s and partly to mostly sunny skies. Most of the area has about a one-in-four chance of seeing a brief shower later this afternoon as the sea breeze gets fired up. Winds will be out of the south, gusting up to 20 mph later this afternoon. Overnight lows may briefly drop below 80 degrees overnight, but will remain warm and sticky.

Tuesday through Friday

Right now we just don’t see much variability in the forecast through Friday. So for now, expect Groundhog Day-like weather, except for the odd shower that pops up during the afternoon hours.

Saturday and Sunday

Maybe this pattern changes by the weekend, but more likely it probably won’t. So expect to see more partly sunny skies this weekend, with highs in the mid 90s, and a few stray showers. We are in the middle of August, and this is the real Houston weather we all know and hate. Love! I mean love. This is the real Houston weather we all know and love. Yeah. That’s what I mean.

Tropics

It has been exactly one month since the demise of Hurricane Elsa, and it sure has been a nice break in the Atlantic tropics. But alas, all good things must come to an end and now the tropics are very much coming to life. There are a couple of blobs on the National Hurricane Center’s five-day forecast.

94L

We’ll start with the system that has a better chance of developing sooner. This system has about a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next two days as it moves across the Caribbean islands. It should affect Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, with rains, if not strong winds as well.

The jury is really out on whether 94L will strengthen much beyond a tropical storm as it must not only interact with these islands, and the overall pattern is not not ideal for intensification. But with that said the models have been under-selling 94L and it would not surprise me to see a strong tropical storm or modest hurricane near Cuba or South Florida by Saturday of this week.

After that? Perhaps it will ride up the Florida peninsula or track a bit further westward into the Gulf of Mexico before turning north. Regardless, at this time, direct effects for Texas seem a low probability. We’ll keep watching regardless.

93L

This system is far less organized, and will likely remain so for a while. However, as the tropical wave moves westward into the Caribbean Sea this weekend, it may eventually find more favorable conditions under which to organize. (Or it could very simply fade away). Regardless, it’s something to continue to watch if its holds together this week. Why? Because in Texas we never really want to see low pressure systems in the Caribbean Sea of Gulf of Mexico this time of year.

There was nothing inherently special about yesterday. We had some sun, some clouds, some haze from passing wildfire smoke. But we only managed to hit 89° officially at Bush Airport with dew point temperatures in the 60s for the majority of the day.

For August, that is almost as good as it gets around here. We are going to see changes this weekend, and a return to more typical summer weather should be expected over the next few days.

Friday

Today looks like a bit of a transition day. We bring back some humidity. We bring back some temperatures. And we bring back at least a smattering of hit or miss showers, downpours, or thunderstorms. Not everyone will get wet today, but about 30 to 40 percent of the region should see at least something. The highest odds for showers should be south and west of Houston initially, but some areas north and east may see some showers by afternoon. Highs will top off in the low-90s.

Weekend

We’ve had a lot of high clouds and passing moisture overhead this week that’s blocked out the sun at times. We should lose that for the weekend. Expect a return to mainly sunshine, high humidity, and highs in the low to mid-90s and lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees. It will feel like 105° or a bit hotter at times this weekend when you factor in the humidity.

Showers will again be possible both days, but coverage should slack off some, maybe peaking at 20 to 30 percent chances. In other words, if you see some rain, consider yourself lucky. There should be a slight breeze each afternoon but nothing too special.

Next week

There’s nothing particularly interesting about the weather next week as it stands right now. That’s good news in August and September, right? Expect daily chances of thunderstorms to perhaps increase a little each afternoon. But some areas will get drenched while others just hear the distant booms of atmospheric acoustics. Otherwise, expect sun and clouds with highs in the low to mid-90s each day and lows in the 70s, fairly typical for August.

Tropics

It’s tough to make much out of what’s happening in the Atlantic right now. There are a number of possible options for development over the next 5 to 7 days, and maybe one area that’s more clear cut than others (which is assigned a 60 percent chance to develop this morning according to the NHC). We’ll have an update on this Monday and Tuesday. But as of right now, there’s not any model or group of models that’s especially bullish on any one outcome, let alone one that brings it to the Gulf. So we have some time to watch.

Following up on Eric’s post yesterday about NOAA’s seasonal forecast update, Colorado State followed suit on Thursday. They actually reduced their forecast a smidge, though they’re still calling for a season that ends up fairly active in the end. They also released a “subseasonal” outlook, which looks out at the next 2 weeks or so, and it unsurprisingly is calling for a period of above average activity in the Atlantic, something we’ve talked about for a little while now. So we’ll see. The setup in the Atlantic reminds me a bit of what we sometimes see in the western Caribbean or over Central America with what we call a “gyre.” You get a lot of storminess, models hinting at development, but little agreement on which portion of the broader mess becomes dominant. The good news is that it all continues to look mostly sloppy and disorganized for at least several more days.