It would be wrong to say Monday’s weather in Houston was pleasant, but after a weak surface front moved through the region Monday evening was certainly “July nice.” The change was subtle, but dewpoints dropped a few degrees, with temperatures following suit. The result was just about as nice an evening in July as you’re ever likely to experience. It won’t last—the boundary is already washing away—but it’s also reminder that fall is only a couple of months away.

Tuesday

The passage of the front on Monday also spurred scattered, but in some cases fairly strong storms along and north of Interstate 10. Today the focus should shift closer to the coast, with some isolated to scattered showers popping up during the afternoon and early evening hours along with the sea breeze. (They will not be as intense as Monday). Otherwise, we should see mostly sunny skies today, with highs in the lower 90s, and winds shifting to come from the southeast.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

As we get deeper into the week rain chances may improve a little bit on Wednesday and Thursday. Why? Because atmospheric moisture levels should rise a little, and our region won’t be directly under the influence of high pressure. I don’t think overall rainfall accumulations will be high, but I think you’ll have about a 40 percent chance or so of seeing a shower on each of these days, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be in the low 90s, with a mix of sunshine and clouds.

Saturday and Sunday

At this point, although the forecast remains subject to change, the weekend looks reasonably nice for Houston. I think we’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs generally in the low 90s. With the humidity, of course, it will still feel plenty hot. Both days will be subject to the potential for some passing showers and thunderstorms, but I’d peg overall chances at about 30 percent each day. So yeah, we’re cautiously optimistic about outdoor activities this weekend.

Next week

Rain chances may begin to increase by Monday or Tuesday of next week as our atmosphere turns a little more unsettled, but I don’t think we’re looking at anything too crazy in terms of accumulations. Matt will have more for you on the tropics in a post later today, and the news on that front remains positive.

Good morning. Although rain chances will never be too far away this week, neither will we have rain every day. Instead, we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with highs generally in the low 90s. When you combine this with a lack of tropical activity, I count that as a “win” for Houston’s weather in mid-July when things can sometimes get nasty hot or floody.

Monday

With that said, some storms will be possible today, especially north of Interstate 10 as a slow moving line of showers sags southward. Most modeling guidance suggests these storms will weaken as they move into Liberty and Montgomery counties, and progress toward Houston this morning. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with highs in the low 90s with light winds. Lows tonight should be in the mid- to upper-70s for most areas, with rain chances falling back to zero.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny days for Houston, with highs generally in the low 90s. Winds will be relatively light at the surface, but a southeasterly flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will ensure there is plenty of moisture. This means that we may seem scattered showers during the afternoon hours, triggered by the sea breeze moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Any developing storms should be fairly short lived.

Thursday and Friday

For now I expect the overall pattern of days in the low 90s to continue, with a smattering of afternoon showers. There are some hints in the models that we may see some slightly better storm chances on Friday afternoon and evening, but this is not something I feel overly confident in predicting, so we’ll watch it for you.

Saturday and Sunday

We’ll carry highs in the low to mid-90s over into the weekend, with more afternoon shower chances due to the sea breeze. The weekend forecast is subject to change, of course, but right now it should bring fairly typical summertime weather to Houston. By now you know the drill for what that means—heat, humidity, and mosquitoes.

Hi all, just a quick update to say that this morning’s storms are winding down over the Houston metro area as anticipated. Although we still expect intermittent moderate to heavy rainfall throughout the early afternoon hours, the general trend toward less coverage and less intense rainfall rates should continue. Area roadways and bayous are generally handling this precipitation just fine. Even better: rain chances will fall back significantly this evening and through the weekend.

Unfortunately the same cannot be said right now for the Coastal Bend area, from Rockport to Matagorda Bay, where heavy rains are continuing this morning and may do so for the next several hours. But that area, too, should finally see a reprieve later this afternoon and evening as a low pressure system in South Texas continues to move away from the region.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and enjoy the sunshine when it returns.

Well, the rains of last night didn’t get going until very late in any organized capacity. So the significant flooding feared last night southwest of Houston never materialized. That’s good news for sure. But that has changed this morning.

This morning

We have a pretty healthy area of rainfall this morning that extends from The Woodlands south to the coast. This started south of the area and has migrated north, and flood advisories are posted for Brazoria County, Brazos Bend State Park, and just east of Bay City in Matagorda County, as of 6:30 A.M. A new flood advisory was just hoisted for most of Houston inside the Beltway, Sugar Land, Kingwood, and Baytown as well. Also, a Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Jackson and Matagorda Counties (west of Bay City) through at least 9:30 AM.

Rainfall is occurring right now at the rate of 2 to 3 inches an hour at its worst. Things are moving enough to keep the heaviest rain from falling over the same area for long enough to cause serious problems, but with wide areas of heavy rainfall around, it would seem that some street flooding is going to be likely in spots this morning, especially in the western half of the metro area. Additionally, heavy rain is clobbering western Matagorda County this morning, so folks down there and into Wharton County should expect areas of flooding over the next few hours. That particular area of rain may also get into Fort Bend County later this morning as well, so please be on the lookout for areas of street flooding.

Everything is moving generally due north. Again, this setup should prevent any one area from seeing so much rain at one time to cause serious problems. We are going to refrain from invoking the Space City Weather Flood Scale this morning for that reason (and given a few radar trends here late). This is a ripe street flooding setup for scattered areas, but it shouldn’t be too out of the ordinary for us. Just please use caution and give yourself extra time if you are commuting or you must be out and about this morning.

Eric or I will have another update on the rainfall situation before Noon today.

Rest of today

Look for this mess to gradually begin to wind down. The rain may actually not so much exit as “thin out” in place today. Coverage of showers will probably diminish beginning early to mid-afternoon and by evening, just some isolated downpours should be expected. Highs will likely be in the 80s for most spots.

Total rainfall between now and evening will be 1 to 3 inches on average, with some smaller, highly localized areas perhaps seeing as much as 4 to 6 inches, especially southwest of Houston and Sugar Land. Areas east of Houston and down toward Galveston may see a bit less total rain.

Saturday

The good news is that the weekend should see things begin to finally unwind a bit over Texas. This doesn’t mean bone dry every day, but this does mean that showers will ease back appreciably and we should return to some element of “normal summer.” We will go from widespread showers and storms like we’ve been having to more scattered showers and storms tomorrow. Look for highs near 90° after morning lows in the 70s.

Sunday

There is a chance that the vast majority of the area stays dry on Sunday. It will probably be sunny and hot and humid, with highs back up into the low-90s. Sea breeze showers may be the only game in town and those may even be a bit spotty. The best chance for anything organized will likely be north of Huntsville as yet another front drops into Texas Sunday afternoon.

Next week

Sunday’s cold front will try to nudge closer to our area Monday, which means we should see more numerous showers and storms. This will be especially true north of I-10 I think. So be prepared for a wet start to the week. Fortunately, that front pretty much washes out over the state to our north by Tuesday, meaning we can resume “typical summer” for most of next week. I would expect sun, clouds, low-90s by day, mid to upper-70s by night, and the requisite 20 to 40 percent coverage of showers each afternoon with daytime heating and the sea breeze. Days with less rain coverage could be a little hotter, days with more a little cooler.

The tropics look quiet Gulf and Atlantic-wide for the next 7 to 10 days. Our first real Saharan dust event of the season may occur Monday and Tuesday, so be on the lookout for that. Additional dust may arrive late next week. We’ll update you more on Tuesday when our weekly Eye on the Tropics series resumes.