Good morning. This will be a fairly wet week, with more clouds than sunshine. Rain chances will peak today and Tuesday, before a bit of a lull, with healthy rain chances returning for the Fourth of July weekend. Will the holiday be a total washout? Probably not, but it’s too early to tell whether it will rain during our much anticipated fireworks’ shows.

Monday

Pretty much everyone in the Houston region is guaranteed to see rain today as an upper-level low pressure system combines with a very moist atmosphere. But whereas some regions see intermittent light showers, others will see downpours. So far storms have moved steadily from southeast to northwest, and this motion has limited rainfall rates to 1 to 2 inches per hour as storms move through. Our primary concern is that, in a few areas, these storms may grind to a halt.

Overall, I expect much of the region will see 1 to 3 inches today, with a few bullseyes of 3 to 5 inches closer to the coast and south of Interstate 10. A few low-lying roadways may flood, but overall these totals should be manageable. Do take care during your morning and evening commute, however. Highs today will likely crest in the mid-80s, with lows dropping into the mid-60s tonight as shower activity wanes, but does not entirely go away.

Tuesday

Tuesday should be a bit like Monday-lite, with the potential for heavy rainfall again, but likely less coverage and less intensity as overall conditions are a bit less favorable. Still most of the area will again see at least some rainfall, with highs in the upper 80s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

As the upper-level low moves away, rain chances will back off a bit, leaving us with partly sunny days. Some sea-breeze driven showers will still be possible during the afternoon hours on these days, but at this point I think they’ll probably be more “miss” than “hit” at this point. Highs will likely rise into the low 90s, which is not terrible as we get into July.

Saturday and Sunday

After a few drier days, in terms of rainfall, precipitation chances will probably be on the rise this weekend as the atmosphere turns more unstable. Unfortunately, we’re still a little too far out to have much confidence in the overall forecast, but right now I’d pencil in 60 percent rain chances each day, which could be problematic for outdoor activities. Given that we’re still several days away, this forecast is far from locked in, but something to keep in mind.

Tropics

We’re likely to see tropical activity pick back up this week after a lull in late June, but for now we don’t see any real threats to Texas or Louisiana over the next week or two. We’ll have more in our weekly tropics report tomorrow.

We’re starting the day just a tiny bit less humid than yesterday. It has sure felt like summer the back half of this week. The humidity will remain high, but temperatures are going to gradually step back a bit as rain chances kick back up later in the weekend.

Friday & Saturday

Both today and tomorrow should feature mostly similar weather. Expect a mix of sun and some clouds, with highs in the low to mid-90s and lows in the mid to upper-70s, along with fairly high humidity. Rain chances will be pretty typical for this time of year, with at least a few showers or thunderstorms around. There could be a slight uptick in storm chances late Saturday afternoon or evening as the pattern over our area begins to change to one dominated by a trough in the upper atmosphere. This would be especially true south and east of Houston.

Sunday & Monday

Both Sunday and Monday will probably see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Monday may have slightly more coverage than Sunday, but both days will see considerable chances of rain at virtually any point in the day. Look for highs in the 80s, especially Monday. Lows will be in the 70s.

Rest of next week

The overall weather pattern next week will be a bit odd across the country, with all-time record breaking heat in the Pacific Northwest (seriously, just an incredible and disconcerting weather event up that way, amid a historic drought too; both events carrying the fingerprints of climate change), a hot East Coast, and a cool trough sort of stuck over the Central U.S.

What does this mean for Houston and the surrounding area? Well, it means we shouldn’t see any severe heat next week. Yay, us. High temperatures will actually be held down some because of higher rain chances. Days with more rain will be in the mid to upper 80s. Days with less rain should be in the low-90s. Lows should be in the 70s.

As is often the case, pinning down the exact timing of showers and storms and who will see the most rain is a bit of a meteorological slog; we just don’t know yet how things will precisely unfold next week. But suffice it to say there will at least be chances of rain or storms each day. Right now I’m favoring Tuesday and maybe Friday for the greatest coverage of storms, as the trough tries to reload itself nearby later in the week. But we’ll fine tune that through the weekend.

How much rain should we expect? As of right now, I don’t think this will be a major, widespread excessive rain event. But, a healthy 1 to 2 inches should be expected in most places on average between now and next Friday, with the regular caveats that some places could see more and others a little less. I do think areas south and east of Houston have a higher chance of seeing some of those higher amounts.

At this time, we don’t expect to have to use the Space City Weather Flood Scale, but we’ll be watching closely the next few days to see if that thinking changes.

By the way, it’s a good time to download our weather app, so you can know right away if any changes to the forecast occur this weekend! Tap here for Apple. Tap here for Android.

Tropics

We continue to watch this tropical disturbance (Invest 95L) way out in the deep Atlantic, and also way out of bounds for what is normal this early in the season. The National Hurricane Center has dropped development odds on this one a little since yesterday, sitting at 30 percent as of 1 AM CT.

We’ll get another update not long after I publish this post.

As of right now, we don’t think this has much of a future in front of it as it treks across the Atlantic. Given how out of bounds it is climatologically and a somewhat hostile road west, development, if any, would be very slow and possibly erratic. Probably nothing we will need to ever worry about, but it’s certainly nothing for us to worry about right now.

More on Monday morning or perhaps Sunday, if necessary.

Good morning. With high pressure more or less holding sway, our region will now see three hot and mostly sunny days before the forecast begins to change on Sunday. Most of next week still looks fairly cloudy and somewhat cooler, with healthy rain chances, although details remain very much to come.

Thursday

There are a few scattered showers along the coast this morning, and some of those may migrate inland before, or by around noon, and likely peter out south of Interstate 10. Otherwise, we’re looking at mostly sunny skies today, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, and light southerly winds. Combined with high dewpoints, this will be a hot and sticky day. Lows tonight won’t drop below 80 degrees for much of the area.

Friday

This should be a carbon copy of Thursday.

Saturday

Rain chances may increase to about 20 percent on Saturday, but for the most part this should again be a hot and mostly sunny day with highs in the low to mid-90s. If you have outdoor plans for Saturday, they should be good to go.

Sunday

I’m less sure about the second half of the weekend. High pressure will begin to retreat on Saturday, and this should open the door to more widespread showers on Sunday. While this should not lead to heavy rain on Sunday, you probably have about a 50 percent chance of seeing some showers on Sunday, with the possibility of a few thunderstorms. Skies will likely be partly sunny, with highs in the low 90s.

Next week

The upper atmosphere will be such that our region will see a series of disturbances move overhead next week, a pattern that could persist through the entire work week. This will lead to more cloud cover, and the absence of high pressure will lead to rain chances on the order of 40 to 60 percent each day, if not higher. I have little confidence in making an accumulation forecast this far out, but I suspect most areas will see at least 1 to 3 inches overall. This will help to keep high temperatures down to around 90 degrees.

Good morning. Today is something of a transition day, with ample moisture across the area battling against high pressure building into the area. As a result I think we’ll see at least some scattered rain showers today before a few days of mostly sunny and hot weather from Thursday into the weekend. Healthy rain chances return by Sunday.

Wednesday

Some showers have developed over the Matagorda Bay region this morning, and this activity should progress toward the Houston region later this morning and into the early afternoon hours. These showers will definitely be hit or miss, with a few areas seeing some briefly heavy rain and most others no rain at all. Skies will otherwise be mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-90s, and southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will not drop below 80 degrees for much of Houston.

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure exerts a little more influence I think rain chances will fall back to less than 20 percent toward the end of the work week. This, combined, with mostly sunny skies, should lead to a pair of hot and sunny days for the region with light southerly winds. Lows will remain sticky, in the upper 70s to low 80s. As we get closer to July, it’s going to feel a lot like July.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should see similar conditions to Thursday and Friday, although there may be a slightly higher chance of an afternoon shower on Saturday. Highs will be in the low to mid-90s with mostly sunny skies, and if you have outdoor activities planned I think you’re probably going to be fine.

Sunday may be a different story, with a few more clouds, and perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain. Right now I don’t think there’s any kind of washout in the cards, but there’s definitely the possibility of passing showers. This should help to limit high temperatures to the low 90s.

Next week

Yet another dying front may approach Houston next week, and this in concert with rising atmospheric moisture levels will lead to better rain chances. It’s really hard to pin down any kind of details at this point, but most of next week will probably see highs of around 90 degrees, with solid rain chances. As for accumulations, it’s too early to do much more than speculate, but we’re probably looking at 1 to 3 inches for much of the region, with higher local amounts. If this happens it will put our soils in a good place heading into July.