Good morning. Houston will see a fairly turbulent front move through on Wednesday and Wednesday night, but we expect things to calm down by later on Christmas Eve, and certainly Christmas Day. All in all it seems like Mother Nature will be doing her part to ensure a festive holiday.

Tuesday

Temperatures have generally fallen into the upper 40s across Houston this morning, but we’ll warm to about 70 degrees under mostly sunny skies later today. Winds will be light, coming from the south or southeast, making for a pleasant day. As clouds increase this evening, and with the southerly flow, I doubt temperatures will drop too far below 60 degrees for most of the area.

Wednesday

This day should bring a lot more clouds, and humidity levels will continue to ramp up as highs reach the mid-70s. We’ll see the development of mostly light to moderate showers later on Wednesday, in advance of a cold front. These showers likely will drop only a few tenths of an inch of rain, at most, for most of the area, but we can’t rule out development of a few thunderstorms. The bigger story will be the winds accompanying a front that will move into Houston during the evening hours. Overnight, winds could gust as high as 40 mph over parts of the region, so you’ll definitely want to prepare for that. Lows will drop down to near 40 degrees for all but the coast.

Christmas Eve

This will be a sunny, blustery, and cold day. Highs will struggle to get above the mid-50s, and with a brisk northerly wind a chill will definitely be in the air. The night before Christmas will see temperatures dip into the 30s, but most of the region should remain just above freezing.

Christmas Day

We’ll see placid weather for the Christmas holiday, with mostly sunny skies and highs pushing up to around 60 degrees. Really, there will be nothing to complain about here.

Saturday and Sunday

The onshore flow will become more pronounced by Friday night, and this will lead to more clouds and warming temperatures. The weekend should see a mix of sunshine and clouds as highs get into the mid-60s on Saturday, and low 70s by Sunday. A weaker front may bring another shot of drier air by Sunday night.

Good morning. It’s the winter solstice, meaning today is the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere. For Houston, that means 10 hours, and 14 minutes of daylight, compared the longest day of 14 hours, 3 minutes in June. The further north you go, of course, the more extreme the differences become. Beginning tomorrow, days will gradually lengthen until the summer solstice.

The shortest day also means the longest night—and this year there is a treat. Tonight Jupiter and Saturn will be making their closest observable conjunction in the night sky since the year 1226. This should be visible from most of Houston, despite the city’s bright lights. All one needs to do is go outside about an hour after sunset, around 6:30 pm. Find a clear view of the southwest horizon and look for the brightest object in the sky aside from the Moon. This will be Jupiter, and Saturn will be the fainter object next to it. These are the two largest planets in the Solar System, and although they appear in close proximity, they’re actually 456 million miles apart. Houston should hopefully have partly clear skies this evening.

Monday

Visibility across much of the area is good this morning, but fairly dense fog has developed right along the coast. It should dissipate by 9 am or so. As the high pressure that dominated Houston’s weather on Sunday moves off to the east, we’ll see winds turn to come from the south. This should allow temperatures to climb into the mid- to upper-60s later today beneath mostly sunny skies. Clouds will form tonight, likely keeping lows to around 50 degrees for much of Houston—although it will be cooler inland. Some fog may again develop early on Tuesday.

Tuesday

This will be another day like Monday, with mostly sunny skies after fog in the morning, and highs pushing up toward 70 degrees. Winds will be out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Lows Tuesday night will be fairly warm for December, only falling into the upper 50s for most areas.

Wednesday

This will be the warmest day of the week, as our southerly flow continues. Despite partly cloudy skies, highs will get into the mid-70s. That will change later in the day as a cold front approaches, and passes through the region. Although confidence in the front’s timing is not absolute, we expect it to push through western areas during the afternoon hours, and off the coast during the evening. Some brief, light rain will be possible, but I don’t expect accumulations of more than a tenth of an inch, or two, for most areas. Lows Wednesday night will drop to about 40 degrees in Houston.

Christmas Eve

This will be a cold and windy day. Most of the area should see winds gusting into the 30s on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Winds will slowly back down during the day, but will still be noticeable. With highs only rising into the 50s, despite sunny skies, it will feel chilly outside. Throughout the day we’re going to see very dry air moving into the region, and dewpoints are going to crash. This will set the stage for a cold night, with lows dropping into the 30s for all areas but the coast.

Christmas Day

As a result of this, Christmas Day will start out cold. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny, however, and temperatures should warm to about 60 degrees for much of the area. It will be another chilly night, but most of the area stays in the 40s this time, probably.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see a warming trend, with highs in the 60s, to possibly 70 degrees, by Sunday. Skies should be partly sunny. Another front may arrive Sunday night.

Just a quick Saturday update to say the latest forecast modeling suggests rainfall later today could be a bit stronger than anticipated. At this point we think much of the region may see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with the possibility of 3 inches for areas south and east of Harris County. Some minor street flooding may briefly occur.

In terms of timing, we expect rainfall chances to increase as the morning progresses, with a band of storms forming west of Houston shortly before noon and moving eastward. This band of storms should be near or off the coast by around 4pm this afternoon. A cold front will sweep through behind this band, rapidly bringing an end to the storm activity. We still anticipate mostly sunny conditions on Sunday, with highs in the mid-60s.

Looking further ahead, Christmas Day still looks quite cold. We will of course have a comprehensive update for you on Monday morning.

We’ve gotten into quite a groove lately with repeating rounds of cold fronts pushing through the Houston area. Since the beginning of November, I count about 13, give or take, individual cold frontal passages here in Houston. That’s about one every 3 to 4 days on average, although after some warmth in November the pace has accelerated in recent weeks. In fact, this is the first time since 2011 that we have not hit 80 degrees in the month of December at least once to this point. If you keep cold fronts coming at a quick pace, you really tend to cap how warm we can get in between. So this has been good for us in terms of keeping temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. And we have one, likely two more fronts coming over the next week.

Today & Saturday

It’s another chilly start to the day across the region. As of 6:45 AM, we had 30s north and 40s south (50s along the coast).

Bush Airport officially hit 35° this morning, but that was around 4 AM, and as some cloud cover has pushed into the area, temps have risen a few degrees. Skies should get progressively more cloudy today. Even with those clouds, we should be able to punch through the 50s and into the 60s later today, as building onshore flow pumps in warmer, more humid air. Some light rain or drizzle and mist will be possible along the coast and south of Houston by late afternoon or evening.

Overnight, we continue to see humidity build up, which should allow temperatures to either hold where they are or even warm a bit. No 30s tomorrow morning! Showers and patches of fog, mist, or light rain should begin to break out across the area tonight as well.

For Saturday, a period of showers and thunderstorms will be likely as a cold front begins to approach around late morning or early afternoon. Tomorrow should not be a total washout, but the majority of the morning looks unpleasant. Rain should shut off from west to east during the afternoon, though some of it could be heavy before it does so.

How much rain are we talking? Probably a half-inch or so on average. Some locations, especially east of I-45 could see higher totals with as much as 1.5 inches or so possible near Beaumont and Lake Charles. A few locations, especially west of the city may see less than a half-inch. Skies should begin to at least partially clear on Saturday evening.

Temperatures will top off near 70° before dropping back into the 60s or upper-50s during the afternoon behind the front.

Sunday & Monday

Look for nice weather to slowly emerge after Saturday. Sunday should see morning lows in the 40s for most folks. Low clouds may remain stuck over the area into Sunday morning, but by Sunday afternoon we should see clearing and sunshine. Look for 10 to 15 mph winds, and high temperatures on Sunday peaking in the low-60s.

We will see lows in the 30s and 40s Sunday night into Monday morning, followed up by a nice sun-filled day Monday with highs in the 60s. Some high clouds could begin to gray the sky a bit by Monday afternoon, especially south and west of Houston.

Tuesday

Tuesday should end up being partly to mostly sunny and warmer, with temperatures starting the day in the 40s and lower 50s and afternoon highs in the 60s, perhaps near 70° in some spots. Some clouds could gradually creep back in through the day.

Wednesday & Christmas Eve/Day

We’re continuing to gain confidence that a cold front is indeed going to come through the area before Christmas Eve. This likely means at least some showers on Wednesday. The timing of the front may have sped up some since yesterday, with some models getting it through Houston on Wednesday afternoon now. There seems to be an increasing chance that both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will feature sunshine, morning lows in the 30s or 40s, and daytime highs in the 50s. Winds will likely be a bit gusty on Christmas Eve, but they should settle down Thursday night, allowing Santa and his reindeer to have a smooth flight into Southeast Texas. We will have more on this for you Monday.