Well, the rains of last night didn’t get going until very late in any organized capacity. So the significant flooding feared last night southwest of Houston never materialized. That’s good news for sure. But that has changed this morning.

This morning

We have a pretty healthy area of rainfall this morning that extends from The Woodlands south to the coast. This started south of the area and has migrated north, and flood advisories are posted for Brazoria County, Brazos Bend State Park, and just east of Bay City in Matagorda County, as of 6:30 A.M. A new flood advisory was just hoisted for most of Houston inside the Beltway, Sugar Land, Kingwood, and Baytown as well. Also, a Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Jackson and Matagorda Counties (west of Bay City) through at least 9:30 AM.

Rainfall is occurring right now at the rate of 2 to 3 inches an hour at its worst. Things are moving enough to keep the heaviest rain from falling over the same area for long enough to cause serious problems, but with wide areas of heavy rainfall around, it would seem that some street flooding is going to be likely in spots this morning, especially in the western half of the metro area. Additionally, heavy rain is clobbering western Matagorda County this morning, so folks down there and into Wharton County should expect areas of flooding over the next few hours. That particular area of rain may also get into Fort Bend County later this morning as well, so please be on the lookout for areas of street flooding.

Everything is moving generally due north. Again, this setup should prevent any one area from seeing so much rain at one time to cause serious problems. We are going to refrain from invoking the Space City Weather Flood Scale this morning for that reason (and given a few radar trends here late). This is a ripe street flooding setup for scattered areas, but it shouldn’t be too out of the ordinary for us. Just please use caution and give yourself extra time if you are commuting or you must be out and about this morning.

Eric or I will have another update on the rainfall situation before Noon today.

Rest of today

Look for this mess to gradually begin to wind down. The rain may actually not so much exit as “thin out” in place today. Coverage of showers will probably diminish beginning early to mid-afternoon and by evening, just some isolated downpours should be expected. Highs will likely be in the 80s for most spots.

Total rainfall between now and evening will be 1 to 3 inches on average, with some smaller, highly localized areas perhaps seeing as much as 4 to 6 inches, especially southwest of Houston and Sugar Land. Areas east of Houston and down toward Galveston may see a bit less total rain.

Saturday

The good news is that the weekend should see things begin to finally unwind a bit over Texas. This doesn’t mean bone dry every day, but this does mean that showers will ease back appreciably and we should return to some element of “normal summer.” We will go from widespread showers and storms like we’ve been having to more scattered showers and storms tomorrow. Look for highs near 90° after morning lows in the 70s.

Sunday

There is a chance that the vast majority of the area stays dry on Sunday. It will probably be sunny and hot and humid, with highs back up into the low-90s. Sea breeze showers may be the only game in town and those may even be a bit spotty. The best chance for anything organized will likely be north of Huntsville as yet another front drops into Texas Sunday afternoon.

Next week

Sunday’s cold front will try to nudge closer to our area Monday, which means we should see more numerous showers and storms. This will be especially true north of I-10 I think. So be prepared for a wet start to the week. Fortunately, that front pretty much washes out over the state to our north by Tuesday, meaning we can resume “typical summer” for most of next week. I would expect sun, clouds, low-90s by day, mid to upper-70s by night, and the requisite 20 to 40 percent coverage of showers each afternoon with daytime heating and the sea breeze. Days with less rain coverage could be a little hotter, days with more a little cooler.

The tropics look quiet Gulf and Atlantic-wide for the next 7 to 10 days. Our first real Saharan dust event of the season may occur Monday and Tuesday, so be on the lookout for that. Additional dust may arrive late next week. We’ll update you more on Tuesday when our weekly Eye on the Tropics series resumes.

Eric and I just want to provide a quick update on the situation that is expected to evolve tonight southwest of the Houston metro area. There have been a few things that have come together today to lead us to think a significant thump of rain is possible in the Matagorda Bay area, extending into Wharton and possibly southern Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties at times. For the vast majority of the Houston metro area, periods of rain are expected, some of which could be heavy, especially in the southern half of the metro area. But serious, widespread flooding is not a concern for us at this time.

How much rain is expected?

As of right now, the thinking is that a general 4 to 8 inches of rain will fall between this evening and tomorrow morning for those areas in Matagorda, Wharton, and Jackson Counties.

There are a couple models we utilize for higher resolution in these types of events that are spitting out some pretty hefty totals, in excess of 10 to 15 inches. So in a worst case scenario, we could be talking about some pretty big rain totals down there. Some of the heavier rains could extend into southern Fort Bend, Brazoria, or Colorado Counties. Galveston County could be on the fringe of heavier rain at times also.

Why is this a problem?

Besides the obvious reason that 8 to 10 inches or more is a lot of rain, the area just southwest of the Houston metro is especially vulnerable right now to flash flooding. Gauge data from the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) shows that once you get close to Bay City, 72 hour rainfall totals have been up over 4 to 7 inches.

Basically, an area that has seen this much rain already cannot handle 8 to 10 inches or more of it, so flash flooding is very likely to begin quickly as heavy rain falls.

Could the rain forecast change?

Absolutely. Models are pretty locked in on the region of greatest impact tonight (southwest of Houston), but their performance has struggled at times this week. We are dealing with a slow moving non-tropical system that is behaving like a tropical system. There’s inherent uncertainty on the finer details of the forecast, but for the most part we know that heavy rain is likely in spots, primarily southwest of Houston, and that heavy rain should be enough to cause flash flooding down that way.

Is there a chance this shifts to the Houston area?

As noted above, forecasts can change of course. But right now we feel pretty confident that the risk of serious flooding will not expand into the Houston metro area. Modeling is in good agreement on this, the meteorological variables are best aligned for heavy rain to the southwest, and those areas have had much more rain than the Houston metro has over the last 3 days. That doesn’t mean there won’t be periods of heavy rain in spots tonight. That also doesn’t mean that we won’t have any street flooding issues to contend with. Those are possible, as they always are when heavy downpours are forecast. But we do not expect serious, widespread flooding in Houston.

Why no flood scale alert?

This is a little trickier to answer, but basically since we don’t expect more than some nuisance street flooding in the Houston metro area right now, we are holding back the flood scale. At best it would be a Stage 1 for Houston. But for Matagorda, this would be higher than that, so we don’t want to confuse people southwest of Houston, needlessly panic the bulk of our readers in the Houston metro area, or send any kind of mixed message in general.

The bottom line is: Heavy rain is possible anywhere tonight. Street flooding is always a possibility, though we don’t believe it will be a huge deal in Houston. Significant, potentially widespread flooding is possible in Wharton, Jackson, and Matagorda Counties.

How does Friday look?

Without getting into too much detail: Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms, but the overall coverage of the rain should begin to decrease again tomorrow, as previously expected. We will have the latest for you on that in the morning.

Good morning. While Houston has largely been spared by heavy rains over the last several days, a significant flooding event has unfolded to our south, with more than 10 to 15 inches falling in locations such as Rockport and Palacios along the Coastal Bend of Texas. These areas lie at significant risk again today. While Houston should see a wet day as well, accumulations will be lower in the metro area, especially along and north of Interstate 10. The threat for heavy rainfall should begin to back off somewhat on Friday.

Thursday

Texas’ coastal storms are being driven by a large area of low pressure over the southern part of the state that is drawing Gulf of Mexico moisture into the coast. This low should eventually weaken and move west later on Friday, but until that time very heavy rainfall will be likely for coastal areas, with the Coastal Bend the most favored area. An additional 3 to 6 inches are possible today from Corpus Christi through Matagorda Bay, with higher isolated amounts.

Closer to Houston, within the metro area, locations south of Interstate 10 may see 1 to 3 inches with higher isolated amounts, and areas north of I-10 likely will see 1 inch or less. These rains will again moderate highs, such that locations closer to the coast peak at about 80 degrees, with slightly warmer conditions inland. On and off stormy conditions may well continue overnight into Friday morning.

Friday

As the low eases westward, heavy rain impacts should be more scattered on Friday in the Houston region, but will not go away entirely. I still expect more than half of the area south of I-10 to see rainfall. Highs will again be in the low 80s, with winds increasing to about 15 mph from the east. Skies should remain partly to mostly cloudy.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should see a mix of sunshine and clouds, allowing high temperatures to recover to about 90 degrees for much of the area. Afternoon showers will definitely be a possibility, but they should lack the organization of our recent, heavy rains.

Sunday

This should be a sunny, warm day with highs in the low 90s. While I can’t entirely rule out some passing showers, most of the region should stay dry.

Next week

The forecast for next week remains somewhat uncertain, as it does not look like Houston will fall under the sway of a dominant ridge of high pressure. At the same time, right now there don’t appear to be any solid triggers for widespread rainfall. So perhaps we’ll strike a happy medium for July, with highs of around 90 degrees, partly sunny skies, and a chance of daytime showers? I would not turn that down at a time when temperatures can often push into the upper 90s, but for now we’ll have to wait and see.

Houston’s dreary pattern will continue for a few more days, especially over coastal areas, in the absence of high pressure to shut off rainfall. Our biggest concern lies well to the southwest of Houston, where several inches of rain have already fallen near Matagorda Bay. These areas are likely to see the potential for the heaviest rainfall again today and Thursday, raising our flooding concerns.

Wednesday

The overall pattern remains, with a broad upper-level low pressure system over coastal Texas that is helping to rain moisture down upon the Gulf, and parts of the state near the Gulf of Mexico. Showers are largely confined to coastal areas this morning, but models indicate they will push further inland later today, with areas north of Interstate 10 seeing at least a scattered chance of rainfall this afternoon.

For the Houston region, accumulations will likely be 1 to 3 inches right along the coast, with higher isolated amounts, and less than 1 inch for most inland areas north of Interstate 10. The map below, from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, shows the area along the upper Texas coast most at risk for heavy rainfall later today. Matagorda Bay could see 2 to 4 inches of rain, with higher isolated totals. Due to clouds and rain, highs today will likely be in the low- to mid-80s for much of our area.

Thursday

This will be another wet day, quite possibly a repeat of Wednesday in terms of rains and temperatures, with heavy rainfall along the coast, and especially southwest of Houston near Matagorda Bay. After all of this accumulating rain, areas such as Port Lavaca and Victoria could definitely see the potential for flooding, which is something to consider if your travels take you southwest of Houston, along the Highway 59 corridor.

Friday and Saturday

As the low-pressure system begins to depart the potential for heavy rainfall should start to diminish some, but both of these days should see the potential for widespread, intermittent showers. Skies will otherwise be mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees for most. Have a backup plan for any outdoor activities on Saturday.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday should bring the return of at least some sunshine to the region, although we’re probably not talking full-on blue skies. Beginning Sunday, and into early next week, we should see a more summer-like pattern, with highs in the low 90s, and a 20 or 30 percent chance of a passing shower during the afternoon due to heating and the sea breeze.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Elsa is approaching the coastal bend of Florida this morning with 65 mph sustained winds. After landfall today it will cross the southeastern United States, likely maintaining tropical storm-strength winds before reemerging into the Atlantic just off the eastern shore of the United States. It could bring messy conditions up the eastern seaboard on Thursday and Friday as it accelerates to the northeast. After Elsa, the Atlantic tropics should remain mercifully quiet for at least the next week or so.