Good morning. Houston’s forecast remains on track, with warm, humid weather before a strong front moves into the region on Wednesday. This will clear out our skies, and cool down our temperatures for most of the rest of the week. Enjoy this spell of cooler weather, as April is right around the corner.

Tuesday

It’s a misty, warm morning for much of the region, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-60s. Humidity is near 100 percent. Some of these clouds will depart later today, and a little sunshine may peak through as highs reach into the low 80s. We could see a few very scattered, very light showers later today and tonight as temperatures remain in the low 70s near the coast, and maybe fall into the upper 60s for inland areas. It will be a warm night, a promise of things to come as the region edges closer to summer.

Wednesday

But it’s not summer yet, as a front on Wednesday will attest! In terms of timing, the front should reach far western and northern parts of the Houston metro area around sunrise, push into the central city by around Noon, and move off the coast during the early afternoon hours. A line of light showers will probably accompany the front, but accumulations should measure only about a tenth of an inch for most. Temperatures will drop about 15 degrees with the front’s passage, into the 50s. Winds will be quite strong out of the north, with some areas seeing 30 mph or greater gusts.

Thursday and Friday

These will be colder and sunnier days. Look for highs in the 60s (perhaps low 60s on Thursday) and lows generally in the 40s for most of the region, and much drier air. We won’t be seeing many more days in the 60s until next fall at the earliest, I suspect.

Saturday and Sunday

By Friday night the onshore flow should return, and this will likely push high temperatures to around 70 degrees by Saturday, and the mid-70s on Easter Sunday. Skies will be partly sunny. The real question is whether we see any rain as atmospheric moisture levels creep back up. For now I think an atmospheric inversion will prevent enough rising air to produce showers, which in any case would be light and scattered were they to develop on Saturday evening or Sunday. Bottom line: Your outdoor Easter plans are probably safe.

Next week

The trend for next week will be one of warming, as highs rise into the 80s, and perhaps even the mid-80s. After Wednesday’s front we’re not seeing any strong indications of another cold front next week. That probably will change at some point, but the warming trend seems clear.

Good morning. Temperatures have generally dropped into the 40s and lower 50s this morning across much of the region, but this flirtation with cooler weather will soon end as winds return from offshore. A stronger front arrives Wednesday, which will bring sunny days and chilly nights heading into Easter weekend. The holiday itself looks pleasant, although we can’t have complete confidence in the forecast this far out.

Monday

Temperatures will rise into the low- to mid-70s today, and really, it’s going to be a rather nice spring day. Skies will be mostly sunny, and winds light, shifting from the north to come from offshore later today. This will be most noticeable in Brazoria and Galveston counties, where some clouds may develop after noon, with a slight chance of showers as well south of Houston. The change in winds will also make for a warmer night, with lows only falling to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Tuesday

Southerly winds will become more noticeable on Tuesday, with mostly cloudy skies. We may see some gusts in the low 20s. The warmer, more humid flow will push temperatures to about 80 degrees, and may produce some very light, scattered showers across the region. Tuesday night’s lows will only drop into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

After a warm night, a cold front will swoop into Houston on Wednesday morning. We still have some questions about timing, but as a best guess the front probably reaches Katy and The Woodlands around sunrise, pushes into the central part of Houston by mid-morning, and off the coast by noon. It looks like a line of light showers will accompany the front, perhaps bringing a tenth of an inch of rain, or so, to most. Temperatures will drop into the 50s behind the front, with blustery northerly winds. Wednesday night’s lows should fall into the 40s for most areas but coastal counties.

Thursday and Friday

We’ll see a sunny and chilly end of the week, with highs on Thursday and Friday in the 60s, and overnight lows Thursday night in the 40s, and low 50s on Friday night. We do not anticipate any freezing temperatures, even for well inland areas. Enjoy!

Easter weekend

Our confidence in the weekend forecast is not particularly high yet. I think we’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds as the onshore flow returns. Saturday probably will see highs in the 60s, and Sunday will rise to around 70 degrees. While we can rule out any rain chances, for now I think the holiday weekend will probably remain dry.

It’s another pleasantly cool morning in the Houston area, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s today. This weekend will present a mixed bag of weather, with a lovely start to Friday, followed by warmer, more humid, and drearier conditions heading into Saturday. A cold front Sunday will bring us a chance of rain and thunderstorms. We are growing more confident that a very robust cold front will slice through the area later next week, ushering some pretty cool temperatures for early April just ahead of Easter weekend.

Today

Look for outstanding weather today. Sunshine and blue skies to start, and we’ll watch for clouds to build in later today. We should see high temperatures approaching or exceeding 80 degrees this afternoon in many locations.

Saturday

Clouds will thicken up and begin to lower tonight as onshore flow ramps up behind a warm front. This should mean fog and drizzle overnight. So expect Saturday to start off a bit dreary in much of the area. We could see partial clearing Saturday afternoon, and as we do, a few showers may develop mainly north of I-10 in the afternoon. We will see highs likely in the 80s after morning lows in the 60s.

Sunday

A cold front will drop into the northern part of the area on Saturday night. Showers and a few thunderstorms may begin to develop out ahead of the front across the Houston area overnight and early Sunday. Weather models are still split on exactly how far offshore how fast this front gets on Sunday. Some hang the front back over Houston, while others push it offshore. It’s easy to see the model differences just by looking at the rain forecast on Sunday in our area from each of them

Euro: 0.5-2″
GFS: Trace-0.25″
NAM: Trace-0.25″
Canadian: 0.25-0.75″

Clearly the Euro & Canadian hold back the front, generating more rain, while the NAM & GFS are much more progressive, pushing most rain well offshore.

While there’s clearly a bit of uncertainty still, I would probably argue for splitting the difference right now: The best chance of showers should be south and east of Houston, while areas north and west see little to no rain on Sunday. I would say about a quarter-inch of rain on average. Higher amounts can’t be ruled out if the front stalls onshore, but at the same time, the rain will be sporadic enough that some places may see little to no rain at all.

Temperatures will also be tricky to pin down. Everyone should see highs somewhere in the 70s on Sunday. Morning lows, however, may range from the upper 50s northwest of Houston to upper 60s in the city and toward the coast.

Early Next Week

By Monday morning, even the Euro and Canadian models have pushed the front offshore, and the area should see a fairly nice day with highs in the 70s after morning lows in the 50s. Onshore flow kicks back into gear Tuesday with more clouds, a slight chance of drizzle or light rain, and high temperatures ramping back up into the 80s probably.

Big pre-Easter cold front

Weather models seem to be in pretty good agreement overall regarding later next week. Onshore flow really begins to ramp Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front will approach later Wednesday or early Thursday. This one has a little more muscle behind it than most recent fronts, so expect to see a pretty substantial drop in temperatures once it clears.

What we are confident in: A cold front with some showers, followed by much cooler, drier air sometime Wednesday or Thursday lingering into the weekend.

What we are not confident in: The exact timing of the front, how much rain, exactly how cool the air will be behind the front, the odds of a light freeze in northwestern parts of the area, and whether or not we can keep the pleasant weather going all the way to Easter Sunday.

Given the model data right now, once it clears our area, we’ll likely see something on the order of highs in the upper-60s with lows in the 40s for late next week. There are a number of European ensemble members even pushing lows into the 30s for Houston next weekend! It’s too soon to talk about a late season light freeze in northwest parts of the area, but it’s worth monitoring if you have things planted. Each model run this week has progressed a couple degrees colder with the air mass late next week, so our confidence in this has nudged up a little also.

Can the nice weather keep going into Easter Sunday? Maybe. I think the smart money is on the air mass starting to warm up a bit by then with some added cloud cover, but at this point we don’t see a significant risk of rain at least. Eric will have the latest on this for you on Monday.

Good morning. A cold front is pushing into the Houston area this morning, and its passage should be a mostly dry one due to a capping inversion over the region that is limiting the upward movement of air at the surface. We’ll then enjoy some drier air for about 48 hours before the weekend weather turns a little more uncertain.

Thursday

Cloudy and overcast skies this morning will give way to sunshine and drier air later this morning, or early afternoon, as drier air associated with the front moves into Houston. Highs will reach the upper 70s. Winds will also be notable, gusting up to 20 mph or so from the north and northwest as this drier air moves in. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s, and this will be the coldest night for some time in the region.

We’re also keeping a wary eye on the potential for storms—related to the front that moved through Houston—over the southeastern United States. Parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee again find themselves in the crosshairs of tornadoes and other severe weather later today and tonight.

Friday

This should be a sunny, splendid day, with highs in the upper 70s. Winds will shift to come from the south later in the day, and this will make for a warmer night, with lows only dropping into the 60s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend is shaping up to be warm, with highs in the low 80s, and partly sunny skies. As moisture levels rise due to southerly winds, we may see some very scattered, light showers during the daytime and overnight hours. Lows near the coast likely won’t drop below 70 degrees.

Sunday

Sunday’s weather will depend on how far a cold front reaches into the Houston region. We’re still not sure whether it will make it to about Interstate 69, or all the way to the coast, and our sensible weather is difficult to predict as a result. I think we’ll see better rain chances on Sunday, with scattered to widespread showers, and accumulation so perhaps a tenth or two of an inch. Highs for most will be in the upper 70s. Probably.

Next week

The aforementioned front may finally shove off the coast on Monday, but we’re likely to see something of a warming trend through the middle of the week. It looks like a stronger front will push through during the middle of next week, and this may bring some lows in the 40s into Houston, although I have very little confidence in such details. Still, the second half of next week could see one of the last reasonably cold spells of this spring.