Good morning. The radar is quiet across the region, and likely will remain so this morning. However, the overall pattern remains favorable for rainfall this week, likely culminating in widespread showers and heavy rainfall on Saturday and Sunday. For this reason, we have instituted a Stage 1 flood alert that will run through the weekend. This is the lowest alert on our flood scale, and means there is the potential for nuisance street flooding.

Wednesday

Skies should be partly sunny today, and this will allow temperatures to warm into the mid- or upper-80s later on. In terms of rain, we expect a cluster of storms to approach the region from the west this afternoon. The question is how long they hold together, and whether they migrate all the way to the coast where a capping inversion should be a bit stronger. Therefore areas west of Interstate 45 and north of I-10 have the best chance for rain this evening through about midnight, and there could be some briefly heavy showers dropping an inch or two of rain over parts of the area. Rain chances fall back late tonight.

Thursday

This will be another day with the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop, with briefly heavy rain across the metro area. About half of the area will probably see some rainfall. As skies will be mostly cloudy, temperatures should remain in the mid-80s on Thursday.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

As an upper-level low pressure system moves closer to our region this weekend, we’ll see increasingly favorable conditions for widespread rainfall beginning Friday. As usual, the details are difficult to pin down, but these kinds of atmospheric conditions typically produce heavy rains that can quickly back up streets. If you’re thinking about weekend plans, our best guess is that the period most likely to see showers and thunderstorms will run from mid-day Saturday through Sunday morning. But rain chances will be fairly high from Friday through Sunday, and most of the area will likely see accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, with highs in the low 80s.

Next week

I’d love to tell you that by Monday we’ll see plenty of sunshine, but the reality is that we’ll probably see a continuation of healthy rain chances—in the 50 percent range—through the middle of next week. The overall pattern will then likely turn drier by the end of next week, with more sunshine and temperatures likely approaching the 90s. It is June, after all.

Good morning. It’s June 1, which for us marks the beginning of summer and the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. The next four months are the hottest of the year—with temperatures peaking in August. However this year we’ve had a slower build into summer, with average temperatures about 1 degree cooler than normal in May. This was due, in large measure, to most of the area seeing rain most days during the second half of the month.

This cooler-but-wetter trend looks to continue into at least the first week of June. Overall, our forecast for the week ahead, including next weekend, look quite wet. The combination of a moist atmosphere, feeding off the Gulf of Mexico, and a series of slow-moving atmospheric disturbances will drive rain chances upward through the weekend, at least.

On average, much of the region will probably receive on the order of 4 to 6 inches of rainfall, with some areas receiving more. Over an entire week, this is manageable of course. What we’re more concerned about are areas receiving that much rain in a couple of hours, and causing flooding problems on roadways. Because of this potential for flooding, and our already sodden soils, we’re issuing a Stage 1 flood alert on our flood scale for the entire Houston region, and this is likely to remain in effect through at least Sunday.

Tuesday

The first opportunity for rain comes today, as a band of storms moves from west to east across the region. These storms produced very intense rains overnight in areas far west and north of the Houston metro area, but appear to be weakening as they approach our region and move through today. While most areas will get less, a few parts of Houston may see 1 to 3 inches of rain today. Highs will top out in the low- to mid-80s with the persistent cloud cover.

Wednesday

This will be another day of fairly widespread showers, with half or more of the region seeing at least some rainfall amidst clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will again be moderated by clouds, topping out in the mid-80s. These two days will probably be something like appetizers for the main event later this week.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday

The pattern will become even more favorable for heavy rainfall by around Thursday, when a slow-moving upper-level disturbance begins to directly impact our weather. With these slow moving systems we are concerned about the potential for training storms and flooding. While it’s difficult to say much about each of these individual days, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall each day, along with mostly cloudy skies. This will help to moderate temperatures of course, and we expect to remain in the low- to mid-80s through the weekend. If you have outdoor activities planned for the period ahead, please know that you should definitely have a backup plan.

Next week

When will Houston emerge from this wet mess? We don’t have a confident answer for you, but for now I think the pattern will begin to moderate about one week from today. Until that time you should keep an umbrella handy, keep an eye on the radar, and be weather aware. We’ll be here.

Happy Friday! Before we dive into the forecast, I just want to give a shoutout to Tim Zacharias at Cougar USA. I sat down with him a few weeks back on their Building Value podcast, and I got to talk a bit about Space City Weather, flooding, the freeze, and hurricane season. You can check it out on YouTube, iTunes, or Spotify. If you watch on YouTube, you get the added bonus of seeing Mullet Matt’s pandemic hair (which is now gone, thankfully!).

On to the forecast, as we have some things to discuss.

Today

Things are quiet around Houston this morning. Lingering storms from last night are moving southeast up north of us, across Walker, Trinity, and Polk Counties. These storms will weaken, but the boundary they’re leaving behind is likely to become the focal point for thunderstorm development this afternoon closer to Houston.

Storms today could become fairly strong and locally severe, so don’t be shocked if you see a couple warnings in a few spots get triggered this afternoon, particularly for hail or strong winds. Some models are more aggressive than others with storm development this afternoon, so it’s certainly possible that some neighborhoods don’t see much of anything today, but a majority of the ingredients we need for storm development today are in place, so I wouldn’t go umbrella-free this afternoon. High temperatures will likely top off in the mid to upper-80s.

Tonight into Saturday

Additional storms are going to develop across northern or central Texas later today, likely congealing into a cluster of organized storms. Those should advance into parts of our area tonight, with the timing somewhat in flux. Early evening plans may see lingering isolated showers or storms, while late evening plans risk running into this more organized activity. Either way, have an umbrella. Storms tonight could again be strong to locally severe, with wind gusts being the main thing to watch.

Those storms will likely ease up Saturday morning, but with lingering boundaries, and yes, a bonafide cold front in the neighborhood, we should see additional isolated to scattered storms tomorrow through the day. Clouds, showers, and a slightly cooler air mass should allow morning lows in the 60s & 70s to only warm into the lower or maybe middle 80s.

How much rain? It will vary. I wouldn’t be shocked to see some places end up with next to nothing from this and others perhaps seeing an inch or two. We don’t expect any serious flooding concerns at this time.

Sunday & Memorial Day

Alright, good news. Both Sunday and Monday still look good. We should see sunshine on Sunday and maybe a bit more cloud cover for Memorial Day. That cold front won’t usher in super refreshing air, but it will skim just enough off the top with respect to humidity that Sunday should be kind of comfortable for Houston in late May. Monday should be similar, but it will be a little warmer. Look for low to mid-80s on Sunday and mid-80s on Monday. Both mornings should see lows in the 60s away from the coast.

Later Next Week

Look for any vestiges of comfortable weather to disappear by Tuesday, with lows in the 70s and highs in the mid-80s. Rain chances will begin to inch up, probably just a little on Tuesday but more on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It’s tough to determine the details, but another slow moving upper level system is likely boost rain chances in our area as the week rolls along. This will keep temperatures cooler than average (mostly mid-80s), but hopefully we’re able to avoid heavier rains. We’ll update this for you certainly on Tuesday, but perhaps Monday if we have any more clarity.

Meanwhile, enjoy the nicer weather later this weekend!

Now that we’re completely past the heavy rainfall, I want to take a look back at our totals since the beginning on May 16. From that day through Wednesday, most weather stations in the Houston region recorded at least a trace of rain, and often more than 1 inch a day. Here are the 14-day totals for the upper Texas coast. Areas in white show 20 inches of accumulation, Barney purple is more than 10 inches.

In addition to ending our region’s emerging drought, another effect of these rains has been cooler-than-normal temperatures for the month of May. Our monthly average temperature is running about 1 degree below normal, and our average high has been in the low 80s. This will soon change as June is around the corner, but it has been kind of nice.

Thursday

Houston enjoyed sunny weather on Wednesday, and that should continue today with a mix of sunshine and clouds. A few very scattered showers will be possible this afternoon as highs crank up into the upper 80s, but the vast majority of us will remain dry. Overnight temperatures will be muggy, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Friday

Conditions should be similar on Friday, with continued partly sunny skies and highs pushing into the upper 80s. Sometime beginning Friday evening, or possibly not until the overnight hours into Saturday morning, rain chances will start to increase in response to an upper-level disturbance.

Saturday

Said rain chances will likely peak on Saturday morning, although we can’t be sure about timing. Overall accumulations should be higher north of Interstate 10, with 0.5 to 1 inches of rain, whereas most areas closer to the coast will likely see less than one-half inch. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong. After the rains I expect at least partly sunny skies Saturday afternoon as a (very) weak front pushes into Houston and off the coast. Highs will be in the mid-80s.

Sunday

Right now I have Sunday as the pick of the litter for the weekend. With a smidge of drier air, partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the mid-80s, this should be a really nice day for outdoor activities. Rain chances should be near zero.

Memorial Day and next week

Memorial Day should see a continuation of Sunday’s weather, albeit with perhaps a bit more humidity. For now I’d expect highs in the mid-80s, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Some rain chances return on Tuesday, but for now our confidence in the forecast at that point is pretty low, and it may be Wednesday or Thursday before any rain really returns to the forecast. Most of next week will probably see highs in the upper 80s.