The Arctic front has pushed all the way off the coast and temperatures this morning are in the 30s and 40s. Welcome to your new reality, Houston. It’s possible the region won’t see temperatures in the 60s again for a week to 10 days, and there will be plenty of freezing weather in between. Our biggest concerns remain focused on next Monday—when roads could turn icy across much of the region—and Tuesday morning when lows could drop into the teens.

Thursday

Today will be rather grim, in terms of weather, with widespread showers and highs only reaching into the mid-40s. Most areas will likely see on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain or so today and tonight, with higher amounts definitely possible underneath heavier showers. Lows tonight will get into the upper 30s, but stay above freezing and therefore keep roadways wet rather than slick in the metro area.

Friday

I think we’ll continue to see the potential for light rain on Friday, although the showers will not be as widespread as on Thursday. When it’s not raining, skies will be gray, and temperatures should again peak in the low 40s.

Saturday

The region should see a break in precipitation from Friday night into Saturday. Perhaps we’ll even get a peek at the Sun? Anyway, it won’t matter much as highs should remain confined to the mid- to upper 40s. Some slight rain chances may return later in the day or during the evening as an upper-level system approaches from the west. For now, low temperatures Saturday night will probably remain just above freezing in most of Houston, but inland areas may well see their first (of several) freezes during the coming stretch.

Sunday

Sunday will be another cold, gray day for the region. The models seem a little more bullish on some light rain falling, so lets call it 30 percent during the daytime. (It’s possible that some areas north of Conroe may see this falling as snow or freezing rain). Highs will be in the 40s, and as additional cold air starts moving into the region temperatures on Sunday night should drop into the 20s—mid- to upper-20s, maybe?—in the city of Houston, with colder conditions inland. The immediate coast may still avoid a freeze. We’ll see.

Monday

The outlook for Monday, which surely will change further so please bear that in mind, now looks to bring widespread, mostly light precipitation into the region from around sunrise to sunset. Because temperatures will be in the vicinity of freezing for much of the day, this raises the important question of whether this falls as cold rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow, or all of the above. At this point I’m reasonably confident that areas north of Interstate 10 will be cold enough on Monday, during the day time, to see some sort of wintry precipitation. I think the jury is still out on areas closer to the coast. But again, this day has the potential to be a real mess for traveling through the region, so be preparing for that possibility now.

Tuesday

We now think the precipitation will end sometime on Monday evening, or so, and this may allow for some clearing skies overnight and into Tuesday morning. (Will this allow roads to dry by Tuesday morning? It’s difficult to say). Regardless, the absence of insulating clouds will create ideal conditions for cooling with this very cold air mass. The region is virtually certain to see a hard freeze on Monday night and Tuesday morning, with lows potentially from 10 to 25 degrees in the city of Houston. This will wreak havoc with exposed exterior pipes and vegetation, and animals must not be left unprotected in these kinds of conditions. Check on neighbors to make sure their heat is working. Sunshine should allow temperatures to recover into the mid- to upper-30s on Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night will again flirt with freezing levels.

Wednesday and beyond

Forecast models indicate yet another reinforcing front moving into Houston on next Thursday or so that may again lead to a widespread freeze and raises the potential for some more wintry precipitation. I have zero confidence in trying to forecast that period. By next weekend we should finally be headed back toward days in the 60s and nights in the 40s, and this will all behind us. Spring, after all, isn’t too far away. But it’s not coming today!

Matt and I will, of course, be with you for the duration of this event.

Our confidence in the forecast for an upcoming outbreak of cold weather, in terms of timing and intensity, is increasing although many questions remain. We think the worst conditions should come next Monday and Tuesday, when there’s a healthy chance of wintry precipitation and a widespread, hard freeze.

Wednesday

At present, a thin layer of colder air at the surface has pushed into northern parts of the metro area. As a result, temperatures this morning are in the low 50s in parts of Montgomery County, while much of Houston and coastal areas are about 10 degrees warmer. Because of this more moist airmass near the coast, fairly dense sea fog has developed and will persist for a couple of hours after sunrise. After the fog lifts, skies will be mostly cloudy for the remainder of the day, with about a 30 to 40 percent chance of scattered showers. Highs will depend upon which side of the cold front you lie, but generally, temperatures should be in the 60s today, and 50s tonight in Houston. Scattered light rain chances will persist tonight.

Thursday and Friday

The front should more completely push through the Houston area on Thursday morning, by or before sunrise, and move off the coast. This is the beginning of a big change in Houston weather, and it will start with healthy rain chances for much of Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday morning. Most models are trending wetter, and at this point it would not surprise me to see 1 to 2 inches during the period, with higher isolated totals. Highs Thursday will be in the 50s, lows Thursday night generally in the 40s, and highs in the upper 40s on Friday with mostly cloudy skies after the rains end.

Saturday

Well, it’s not much, but Saturday looks to be the “pick” of the weekend, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures that may reach about 50 degrees. A reinforcing shot of colder air should arrive on Saturday, setting the stage for near freezing temperatures in Houston during the overnight hours.

Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday

This is the period of the forecast where we expect the coldest weather to occur, and a potential for sleet, freezing rain, or possibly snow. There are, frankly, a lot of atmospheric ingredients at play including the amount of cold air moving into the region, and the evolution of an upper level low pressure system that should bring precipitation into the forecast.

For now, Sunday looks partly to mostly sunny and cold, with highs perhaps in the low 40s or thereabouts. Sunday night will likely see a widespread freeze across Houston, with increasing precipitation chances overnight.

Monday should see the best chance of precipitation. But what form will it take? For areas north of Houston and west of Katy, high temperatures on Monday may struggle to get out of the low 30s. So there’s going to be a rather healthy chance of sleet, freezing rain, or possibly snow. I expect this may well be the case in Houston as well, we just don’t have extremely high confidence in temperatures at this point. Bottom line: Monday has the potential to be a real mess on the roads, and school closures are possible if your district isn’t already shut due to President’s Day. Obviously we’ll be tracking all of this for you in the coming days as best we can.

Finally, Tuesday looks to see the coldest weather. With the potential for some clearing skies on Monday night and early Tuesday, we could see temperatures plunge on Tuesday morning. I’m not ruling out temperatures in the teens for outlying areas, and potentially even in Houston itself. More likely lows will be in the 20s, and that will be cold enough to worry about exposed pipes. My best guess for Houston right now is a low between 20 and 25 degrees, with colder conditions inland, and still a freeze right along the coast.

Temperatures should begin to recover by Wednesday.

Good morning. The main news remains the potential for very cold weather in Houston during the coming seven to 10 days. While we still have questions about the details it is now time to begin considering preparations.

Also, it’s worth noting that very cold weather in February is far from unprecedented. Back in 1899, the city of Houston recorded consecutive days with low temperatures of 6 degrees on February 12 and 13. That means only six degrees of separation from a low of zero degrees.

Tuesday

As expected, moderate to dense fog has developed across the region this morning, with muggy conditions in the 60s. This fog may not dissipate until 9am or so for some areas. A front will sag into Houston today, and stall around 30 to 50 miles from the coast. Effectively, this means if if you live inland of Interstate 69, highs today may generally be in the 50s, but if you live south and closer to the coast, highs will be in the low 70s. Some scattered showers will be possible area-wide today. Overnight lows will be similarly dependent upon the extent of the front.

Wednesday

Conditions should be similar on Wednesday, with the front stalled out across Houston. Depending on where it’s hung up, you may see highs in 50s with drier air, versus highs in the 60s with more humidity.  Rain chances will be a bit higher, with perhaps a 40 percent chance of light to moderate showers.

Thursday

One more day of divided temperatures, with warmer conditions along the coast, and cooler weather further inland. Rain chances will be that much higher as a stronger, Arctic front approaches, and pushes into Houston later on Thursday. Most areas should see between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall through Friday morning.

Friday

We’ll see a much colder day on Friday, with highs perhaps in the low 50s and partly sunny skies. Lows Friday night will drop to around 40 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

A reinforcing shot of Arctic air looks set to move into the coastal region on Saturday, and this is what will likely set the stage for much colder weather early next week. Highs on Saturday may remain in the 40s, with lows dropping into the 30s for Houston, and 20s for inland areas well inland on Saturday night. Sunday may struggle to get out of the 30s, with lows Sunday night again likely below freezing for much of the metro area. Happy Valentine’s Day—this will not be the best of years for planning some sort of outdoor surprise!

Early next week

Quite frankly, we’re still struggling with how cold conditions will get during the Sunday through Tuesday period of next week as the models are really all over the place. Some ensemble members of the GFS suggest temperatures could reach their nadir on Tuesday morning, in the teens even in the city of Houston. This probably is too cold, but a widespread and potentially hard freeze does seem likely. It is time now to consider preparations for plants and pets, and if temperatures drop below about 25 degrees, external pipes. Please note the details of this medium-range forecast remain uncertain, and therefore will change. And when it comes to low temperatures like these, small changes matter.