The Houston region will see warmer weather today ahead of our next cool front, but the bigger story will be the potential for widespread rainfall. It looks like most of the area will see 1 to 3 inches between this morning and the evening before a front scours moisture from our region. This will set the stage for cooler and sunnier weather in the days ahead, including a splendid, winter-like weekend.

Wednesday

Houston’s radar is lighting up this morning as a reasonably moist atmosphere combines with favorable upper level conditions. Much of the region should see on-and-off rain showers today, but for the most part these should come at manageable rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour or less. A few locations may see more than 3 inches of rain today, and the most likely spot for that is along the coast. In addition to the rain, we may see the potential for some damaging winds, but the overall threat for that, along with any tornadoes, is fairly low. Highs today should reach nearly 70 degrees for most areas, with the front arriving in late afternoon for western parts of the region, and early evening closer to the coast. As the front moves in, any lingering showers will end. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s for most.

Thursday and Friday

We’ll see a pair of mostly sunny, cool days with highs likely somewhere in the 50s, and overnight lows around 40 degrees. I think outlying areas such as College Station will remain just above freezing on these nights, but it will be fairly close.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see continued mostly sunny skies, with highs perhaps a bit warmer, reaching 60 degrees, or the lower 60s. Nights will remain chilly as the region falls under a drier flow of air. We can probably expect lows in the low 40s. These are about the averages one would expect to see in January.

Next week

Cooler weather will remain in the cards through the middle of next week, most likely. We may see a warming trend back toward highs of around 70 degrees by the second half of next week, but it’s definitely going to feel like winter around these parts for awhile after today. Time to unbox those sweaters!

Also, after today, there should not be much rain to speak of for the next 7 to 10 days.

Good morning and welcome to December. The final month of 2020 has started out cold—the city will not hit its record low of 26 degrees for this day, but much of the region is seeing a light freeze this morning. Houston’s official station, at Bush Intercontinental Airport, bottomed out at 30 degrees. This will be the coldest morning of the week, although Houston is likely to see cool nights with lows in the 40s or 50s for quite a while as we transition from a fall-like pattern into one more like winter with more consistent fronts.

Tuesday

It’s difficult to discern, but our light winds have shifted to come from the southeast, and as high pressure moves off we will see a moderation in temperatures today. Expect highs to climb into the low- to mid-60s under mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the 50s as clouds build over the area, which will lead to increasing rain chances tonight and especially on Wednesday.

Wednesday

The combination of an upper-level low pressure system and a moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico will amp up our rain chances during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday, through the afternoon hours as a cold front advances toward, and passes through the area. We can’t rule out some damaging winds in stronger storms. In terms of rainfall accumulations, I expect that areas north and west of Interstate 69 will likely see about one-half inch of rain, give or take; and areas south and east—closer to the coast—will generally see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. Highs on Wednesday should get into the mid-60s before the front passes, with lows dropping to around 40 degrees overnight in Houston—cooler for inland areas, and warmer along the coast.

Thursday and Friday

These should be a pair of mostly sunny days, with highs in the mid-50s and lows of around 40 degrees in Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

A reinforcing mass of drier air will move into the region Friday morning, and this should help keep our skies on the partly to mostly sunny side through the weekend. Right now I think we’re looking at highs of about 60 degrees for both days, but there is still some wiggle room in that forecast.

Next week

Our weather looks to remain on the cool side through the middle of next week, or so, before we may see a warmup of daily highs into the 70s or so.

As recently as Friday, many parts of the Houston area saw temperatures reach 80 degrees. But a potent front that blew in early on Sunday—a few gusts near 40 mph were recorded later in the day—will bring our region its coldest weather of the season. A light freeze is likely tonight for all but the urban core of Houston and coastal areas.

Also, today is the final day of our 2020 fundraiser—you can buy merchandise or simply donate funds. The response this year has been just wonderful. In addition to raising plenty of money to keep Space City Weather humming and improve our offerings, we’re going to be donating more than $5,000 to the SBP charity that helps people rebuild after hurricanes.

Monday

Winds are continuing to blow from the northwest this morning, and may gust up to about 20 mph throughout the day as cold, dry air continues to move into the region. Skies will be mostly sunny, but highs will only briefly rise above 50 degrees for most areas. As winds die down tonight, the region will see its coldest night since February. Much of the area, excepting coastal counties, will see a light freeze early on Tuesday morning, and a freeze warning is in effect for much of the region.

Tuesday

After a cool start, Tuesday will warm into the 60s. We’ll start out with sunny skies, but as winds shift to come from the south, we’ll see increasing cloud cover during the late morning or afternoon hours. Lows Tuesday night will only drop into the 50s for most of Houston.

Wednesday

Conditions will be mostly cloudy on Wednesday as the next front approaches our region. Although the timing of this system is still not locked in—it probably will move through Houston some time during the middle of the day—it does seem likely to bring another shot of rainfall as it passes. Most of the area will see, roughly, on the order of 1 inch of rain. Precipitation chances will probably end Wednesday evening, or so. This will be another reasonably strong front, but it likely will not drive the region’s temperatures below freezing in Houston.

Thursday and Friday

Houston will enjoy a pair of sunny, winter-like days, with highs in the 50s and lows likely in the 30s for inland areas, and 40s along the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

Temperatures will begin to rebound by the weekend, but at this point our best guess is that highs will be around 60 degrees both days, with lows around 40 degrees. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny—so for now we expect a rather nice winter-like weekend!

Tropics

The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends today, and it has been a record one, with 30 total storms, including 13 hurricanes. (It’s always possible that we may see one more stray storm in December). Houston was directly affected by Tropical Storm Beta in September, but also experienced indirect effects from hurricanes Laura and Delta. Matt and I will have more to say about this season of seasons in the next week or so.

A lot to get to today, but I want to start by saying that I hope everyone’s Thanksgiving was as enjoyable and, most importantly, safe as possible. It’s been a rough year, and I hope you were able to find some time to be at peace with everything. I’ll echo Eric’s sentiments from yesterday and say I am grateful for your trust and loyalty. It’s a honor to be of service and to be able to work with a fine partner like Eric. Thank you to all!

Let’s kick today off with a quick bullet point summary of what’s happening here.

• Multiple rounds of rain will move through the area today and tomorrow, ending on Sunday morning, totaling 2 to 4 inches on average with amounts of 4 to 6 inches or even a bit more in spots.
• Localized street flooding will be the biggest concern, as the dry ground should be able to absorb most of what falls. No flood watches are in effect as of Friday morning.
• Some storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds or hail on Friday, but heavy rain remains the biggest impact expected from this event.
• Much cooler, drier weather will follow on Sunday and early next week.

Today and tonight

Heavy rain has already begun to move into the area this morning as an area of low pressure, a couple fronts, and a favorable atmosphere above combine for a healthy rainfall setup.

Expect the rain to come in waves today, pouring for a while, perhaps dry for a chunk of time as well. Rain totals should add up to about an inch or two on average, but there will likely be a couple areas that see as much as 3 to 4 inches of rain just today. In addition to heavy rainfall, today’s storms may be capable of producing some small hail or strong, gusty winds. A widespread severe weather outbreak is not expected, however.

Look for temperatures in the 70s today, easing into the 60s this evening. Rainfall will probably become a bit more intermittent this evening and overnight, though we probably never actually dry out completely.

Saturday & Sunday

A strong upper level storm system will sweep into the region tomorrow, initiating another round of off and on rain and thunderstorms. Rains will again be heavy at times through the day and into tomorrow evening. The severe weather threat tomorrow is fairly low, so that’s not a serious concern. Another inch or two of rain, with locally higher amounts will be possible before things calm down tomorrow night and Sunday morning.

When all is said and done, between the rains Friday and Saturday, we expect about 2 to 4 inches of rainfall on average, with areas of 4 to 6 inches likely. A couple smaller areas could see amounts as high as 6 to 8 inches.

In terms of flooding, given the dry weather of late (see below), we can actually absorb most of this rain. There are no flood watches posted in our area as of Friday morning, and we will not be issuing any SCW Flood Scale guidance for this either. That said, if we were to have to escalate things, it would most likely be to Stage 1 and probably not much worse. This rain should be more beneficial than problematic overall.

The rain ends sometime in the predawn hours or early morning on Sunday, as a cold front sweeps through. Look for winds to crank up behind the front, with northerly or northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 mph, and higher gusts over the bays and Gulf.

Temperatures will spend much of Saturday in the 60s before cooling to near 50 on Sunday morning (cooler north and west perhaps). Sunday afternoon will see gradual clearing and eventually sunshine with highs only in the upper-50s.

Next week

Monday should still be breezy and chilly. Look for morning lows to start off in the low to mid-40s in Houston and probably 30s in some outlying areas. We’ll warm into the mid-50s with plentiful sunshine. Tuesday will be the chilly morning, with lows in the 30s most everywhere away from the immediate coast. There will be risk of a light freeze north & west of Houston; basically north of I-10 and west of US-59/I-69.

Tuesday afternoon should again feature plenty of sunshine with highs in the upper-50s to perhaps near 60 degrees. Our next front arrives on Wednesday or early Thursday it would appear, which should setup another round of chilly, fair weather into next weekend. There are still questions as to how much rain we can expect with that next front, but it likely won’t be as drawn out as this weekend’s event.

Drought dented

The good news with all this rain for the region is that it’s occurring just in time, likely again saving us from a true drought for the time being. This will be at least the third or fourth time since late spring that we’ve had a significant rain event arrive just as it appeared we were headed into drought. Yesterday’s drought monitor update had 84 percent of Texas in drought, up from 75 percent a week ago.

Drought has finally entered the outskirts of Harris County, and is widespread in surrounding counties. We should now be able to take a fairly lengthy break from discussing drought after this weekend. Only 2 weeks ago it appeared we had nothing in the pipeline, so it’s always interesting how a few changing pieces can change the whole storyline.

We’ll keep you posted this weekend if anything changes or if rainfall becomes more serious than we believe it will be right now. Otherwise, enjoy and stay safe.