Good morning. The main news remains the potential for very cold weather in Houston during the coming seven to 10 days. While we still have questions about the details it is now time to begin considering preparations.

Also, it’s worth noting that very cold weather in February is far from unprecedented. Back in 1899, the city of Houston recorded consecutive days with low temperatures of 6 degrees on February 12 and 13. That means only six degrees of separation from a low of zero degrees.

Tuesday

As expected, moderate to dense fog has developed across the region this morning, with muggy conditions in the 60s. This fog may not dissipate until 9am or so for some areas. A front will sag into Houston today, and stall around 30 to 50 miles from the coast. Effectively, this means if if you live inland of Interstate 69, highs today may generally be in the 50s, but if you live south and closer to the coast, highs will be in the low 70s. Some scattered showers will be possible area-wide today. Overnight lows will be similarly dependent upon the extent of the front.

Wednesday

Conditions should be similar on Wednesday, with the front stalled out across Houston. Depending on where it’s hung up, you may see highs in 50s with drier air, versus highs in the 60s with more humidity.  Rain chances will be a bit higher, with perhaps a 40 percent chance of light to moderate showers.

Thursday

One more day of divided temperatures, with warmer conditions along the coast, and cooler weather further inland. Rain chances will be that much higher as a stronger, Arctic front approaches, and pushes into Houston later on Thursday. Most areas should see between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall through Friday morning.

Friday

We’ll see a much colder day on Friday, with highs perhaps in the low 50s and partly sunny skies. Lows Friday night will drop to around 40 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

A reinforcing shot of Arctic air looks set to move into the coastal region on Saturday, and this is what will likely set the stage for much colder weather early next week. Highs on Saturday may remain in the 40s, with lows dropping into the 30s for Houston, and 20s for inland areas well inland on Saturday night. Sunday may struggle to get out of the 30s, with lows Sunday night again likely below freezing for much of the metro area. Happy Valentine’s Day—this will not be the best of years for planning some sort of outdoor surprise!

Early next week

Quite frankly, we’re still struggling with how cold conditions will get during the Sunday through Tuesday period of next week as the models are really all over the place. Some ensemble members of the GFS suggest temperatures could reach their nadir on Tuesday morning, in the teens even in the city of Houston. This probably is too cold, but a widespread and potentially hard freeze does seem likely. It is time now to consider preparations for plants and pets, and if temperatures drop below about 25 degrees, external pipes. Please note the details of this medium-range forecast remain uncertain, and therefore will change. And when it comes to low temperatures like these, small changes matter.

After Sunday’s brilliant weather our conditions this week will turn a little bit more cloudy, and increasingly warmer until a strong cold front Thursday ushers winter back into the region. We’re still anticipating much colder weather for next weekend, although how cold—and how much of the region sees a freeze—is yet to be determined. We’ll discuss below.

Monday

With winds shifting from the east to come from the southeast this morning, today will see increasing cloud cover across Houston. High temperatures will likely reach about 70 degrees. With the southerly flow, temperatures on Monday night likely will not drop below 60 degrees in the city of Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas.

Tuesday

With the warmer overnight air, we may see at least some patchy fog develop on Tuesday morning. Skies should again be partly to mostly cloudy, but even so high temperatures will likely get into the mid-70s. It will be another warm nighttime for February, with lows in the low 60s. Some very slight showers are possible, although unlikely.

Wednesday and Thursday

The middle of the week will see continued warm weather, with clouds. As atmospheric moisture levels increase, we should start to see scattered, light showers on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rain chances increase Thursday as a cold front approaches and passes through the area—although whether this happens around noon on Thursday or during the evening hours, it’s difficult to say. Most areas should see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall with this front, which the region could use.

Friday

The end of the work week should see much colder weather, with highs likely in the 40s to 50s, lots clouds, and colder norther winds. Lows Friday night will likely drop into the 30s, likely. Brrrr.

Saturday and Sunday

The biggest question for our forthcoming weekend concerns Arctic air that will be diving into the central United States. Specifically, how much of this colder air reaches all the way down to the Texas coast, and how much is shunted off to the east? Some models, like the GFS, show bonkers cold temperatures as low as the teens. That’s highly unlikely. However, by Sunday morning I do think it’s reasonably to expect lows to reach the neighborhood of 25 to 35 degrees for much of the area, except for the immediate coast. Some additional precipitation is possible over the weekend and into early next week, and we’ll have to monitor its potential to come as snow, ice, sleet, or something in between. So, stay tuned.

It was officially 80 degrees yesterday in Houston. We fell one degree shy of the record high at both Bush & Hobby on Thursday. Today will not be a repeat of that, not by a longshot.

Today

It’s starting off in the 50s and upper-40s this morning, and honestly, temperatures may not go very far from these values today.

Today is going to be one of those chilly, raw, damp winter days here in Houston with off and on showers or light rain, a lot of clouds, and a bit of a breeze.

We could use a little rain, so hopefully we can snag a couple tenths of an inch here or there through the day. Look for showers to diminish tonight, with partial clearing and lows generally in the 40s, though a few spots up north could drop into the upper-30s.

Weekend

Tomorrow will start similarly kind of gray. We should hopefully see breaks in the clouds during the afternoon. And we’ll see complete clearing once another cold front sweeps in Saturday afternoon or evening. Ahead of that front, look for highs in the 60s tomorrow. A chilly night is on tap for Saturday night with lows dropping into the 30s and 40s. Sunday looks spectacular. Expect a lot of sunshine, high temperatures in the 60s, and light to moderate winds.

Monday through Wednesday

Onshore flow will kick back in late Sunday, so Monday morning will not start off nearly as chilly as Sunday morning. Look for morning temps in the 50s, with a few upper-40s scattered about. Clouds will be with us on Monday as well. Despite the clouds, temperatures will surge to near 70 degrees.

The forecast begins to fall off the rails Tuesday with some changes since yesterday. A cold front is projected to get close to Houston by Tuesday afternoon. Models differ dramatically on the timing and orientation of the front through Wednesday and even Thursday, with the GFS model stalling it in our neighborhood and the European model suggesting it stalls well offshore. A map of forecast dewpoints for Wednesday shows this well.

This obviously has implications on everything from temperatures to cloud cover to fog potential to shower chances for next Tuesday and Wednesday. If the front clears, expect highs in the 60s or 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows in the 40s Wednesday. If the front does not clear, expect highs in the 70s, perhaps well into the 70s and lows in the 60s, along with fog at the coast or even into the city. Normally, I’d say the cooler outcome is probably correct, but the GFS model tends to have a bias where it’s too fast with fronts pushing offshore so seeing it be opposite of that gives me a little pause. At the same time, models tend to struggle with the type of cold air masses we are expecting in our region by midweek next week, bringing them in too slowly. So the forecaster’s conundrum is in place next week, and either outcome seems perfectly reasonable. We’ll have a good bit more clarity on Monday.

Late next week

The forecast really goes off the rails later next week. All we can tell you at this point is to expect unsettled weather and potentially the coldest weather of winter. Models have taken a bit of a dramatic step colder since yesterday for next weekend, with most reliable model guidance indicating a freeze, if not a hard freeze will be possible focused on Saturday or Sunday. Whether or not that actually happens will depend on how the potential for rain or wintry precipitation exactly plays out next Friday and Saturday. I think Eric’s 20 percent call on snow risk is still reasonable, though I think I might unfortunately call it “snow OR ice” right now. I wish we could be less vague, but this period has been in flux for several days. Either way, we believe you will want to continue to monitor the forecast for the end of next week and weekend in the coming days and be ready to implement your cold weather preparations later next week. It’s been a minute since we last saw 20s in Houston in February, last occurring back in 2014. A reminder that, although rare in recent years, it can absolutely still get quite cold this late in our winter. Much more to come on this.

It’s a rather warm morning across the region for early February, with lows in the 60s. We’re on the way toward a very warm afternoon, with highs near 80 degrees. But as we’ve been talking about, do not take this as a sign that winter is over. We’re still anticipating a pretty robust cooldown next week that could very well bring a freeze to parts of the Houston area, if not all of it.

Thursday

A warm, southwesterly flow will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to 80 degrees this afternoon. Areas that see a bit of sunshine will probably reach 80, and chances of this are highest just west of Houston. This flirtation with spring will will end this evening, as a front reaches areas northwest of Houston around sunset, drops into the city of Houston between 8 and 10pm, and reaches the coast around midnight. A very light band of rain may accompany the front.

Friday

Lows on Friday will drop down to around 50 degrees, in the wake of the front. Winds will be out of the north, and even with partially clearing skies, highs may only rise to around 60 degrees for most. Lows will probably drop into the upper 40s overnight, as winds shift to come from the east.

Saturday

Thanks to this warmer onshore flow, highs on Saturday will probably climb to around 70 degrees with partly sunny skies. However, by the afternoon, a second front should arrive and this will again cool Houston down to around 50 degrees overnight.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend looks splendid, with highs near 70 degrees, lots of sunshine and dry air. Seriously, do something outside.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday both look reasonably warm, with highs in the upper 60s or lows 70s and a mixture of sunshine and clouds.

The pattern changes on Wednesday with the arrival of a cold front, which should bring several days of significantly colder air into the region. With mostly cloudy skies for a few days, the second half may see highs in the 50s (or even 40s?) and lows in the 30s (or maybe even 20s?). This raises the possibility of wintry precipitation by next weekend, or so. I think there’s a solid 20 percent chance or snow, but given the delicacy of such a forecast—which is to say a lot of ingredients must line up just right for snow to fall along the upper Texas coast—we’re still a long way from being able to forecast what will happen with confidence. So, stay tuned!