Good morning—and is definitely a cold one, especially for those of you in areas like Conroe and Cleveland who are experiencing temperatures in the 20s. We’ll now see a warming trend through Saturday, before another front arrives to keep our weather on the cool and sunny side. Our forecast for Christmas Day continues to call for a cold start and a cool day, although there remains a fair bit of wiggle room in the details.

Thursday

Sunny skies and light winds will allow temperatures to rise this morning, and highs should get into the mid- to upper-50s by this afternoon. Our skies will remain clear heading into this evening, although a light wind shift from the east should make for a slightly more moderate night. Expect lows in Houston to drop to around 40 degrees, with warmer conditions along the coast, and cooler weather inland.

Friday

As winds become more southeasterly on Friday, we’ll start to see the development of a few clouds in the morning. As highs reach into the mid-60s or so during the afternoon hours, we should start to see partly to mostly cloudy skies. We may see some light rain chances during the evening hours, but the better opportunities for rain will come after midnight.

Saturday

An approaching cold front will help generate widespread light to moderate showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, on Saturday. For now, I expect accumulations will be 0.25 to 0.75 inch for most areas, and rains should end by the afternoon or early evening hours as a front pushes through the metro area. Highs Saturday night should reach about 70 degrees ahead of the front, dropping fairly quickly after the front’s passage. Overnight lows on Saturday night should generally drop into the 40s.

Sunday

If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, Sunday should be the pick of the litter, with clearing skies and highs in the mid-60s. Winds will generally be light, but could remain at about 15 mph just along the coast as cool, dry air moves into the region. Lows Sunday night will again drop into the 40s.

The week of Christmas

We’ll see a warming trend beginning on Tuesday as the onshore flow becomes more pronounced, and temperatures probably will reach 70 degrees by Wednesday. Some light rain showers will be possible mid-week with the increased moisture. All eyes will then turn toward our next cold front, which will set the stage for conditions on Christmas Eve and Day.

Right now there seems to be general agreement in the models that this front will push into Houston late on Wednesday evening, or early Thursday morning—but with nearly seven days until that time frame I’m hesitant to lend too much credence to precise timing. However, under this scenario Christmas Eve may see clearing skies, and Christmas morning would be quite cold. I think temperatures could be in the 30s for much of the area. Alas, the atmosphere would be dry, so don’t expect a White Christmas in Houston this year.

Good morning. Skies are clearing across the metro area, and the region will now see a few days of sunshine before the arrival of yet another front brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. But mostly, we’re just going to see cool, December-like weather in the days ahead.

Wednesday

Winds are blowing out of the northwest this morning at 10 to 15 mph across the area, and this influx of colder and drier air will make for a cool day. High temperatures are unlikely to rise further than the mid-50s, despite the ample sunshine. Mostly clear skies and light winds will make for a cold night, with a light freeze possible north and west of Houston, with the urban center likely remaining several degrees above freezing.

Thursday

We can expect another splendidly sunny day, with temperatures a few degrees warmer as highs climb to around 60 degrees for much of the area. Winds will shift to come from the south later in the day on Thursday, and this will make for a warmer night, with lows likely only falling into the 40s for most areas.

Friday

We’ll start to see some clouds on Friday, and high temperatures should push into the mid- to upper 60s in response to the onshore flow. At this point I think skies will remain mostly sunny throughout the day, with any rain holding off until the evening or more likely overnight hours. Lows on Friday night may not drop below 60 degrees for some areas.

Saturday

The best chances for rain will come between midnight on Friday and Saturday before noon. Most areas will probably see only a few tenths of an inch of rain before a front arrives during the afternoon hours to dry the atmosphere out. We may end up seeing at least partly sunny skies on Saturday, in addition to the rain. Highs will probably reach 70 degrees ahead of the front before a chilly night.

Sunday

Expect mostly sunny skies, with highs perhaps in the low 60s. Sunday night may see temperatures drop into the low 40s for much of the area except for the coast.

Next week, and Christmas Day

The region should warm up back to near 70 degrees by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, and then it becomes a waiting game to determine the timing and strength of the next front that will determine our weather for Christmas Day. Right now, I think this front may arrive any time between next Wednesday, Wednesday night, or Christmas Eve. At this point, the bulk of the model guidance shows the coldest morning coming on Christmas morning, with the potential for lows in the low 40s, or even upper 30s, but it’s difficult to have much confidence at this point in precise temperatures. Some rainfall may well accompany this front, but it likely will end before temperatures get cold enough to produce any chance of wintry precipitation—sorry kids.

Good morning. Houston’s weather will generally remain on the chilly side for the next 7 to 10 days as mid-December feels a lot like mid-December in Houston. This has been a difficult year for many, for many reasons, but at least Mother Nature seems to be doing its part to help us feel like we’re entering the holiday season.

Tuesday

The onshore flow has resumed, with winds blowing out of the southeast at 5 to 10, and as a result we’re going to see mostly cloudy skies today. There should be enough moisture and lift this afternoon to produce widespread, but light showers. I’m expecting most areas to not see more than one- to two-tenths of an inch of rain, primarily during the afternoon hours. A cold front will reach the western parts of the metro area this evening, and likely push off the coast before sunrise on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

This will be a cold day, with winds from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Although skies should clear out during the morning hours to bring us some sunshine, much of the area may not get above 50 degrees. Clear skies and cold air will set the stage for a night that will likely bring a freeze for much of the area outside of the city’s urban core, and away from the coast. Lows in Houston itself will probably drop into the mid-30s.

Thursday

Another sunny, slightly warmer day as winds become calm. Highs may get into the upper 50s, and lows Thursday night will probably be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday and Saturday

Some clouds begin to return by Friday along with the onshore flow. Because this more moist, southerly flow will have a better chance to get established it will lead to warmer days and, eventually, a better chance of rain. Highs both Friday and Saturday will likely get into the mid- to upper-60s. Rain chances will increase Friday night and into Saturday as a front approaches Houston. I’m still not overly confident in accumulations this weekend, but I’d guess for now that much of the area will see around one-half inch. The next front should push through Saturday afternoon or evening, with clearing afterward.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend looks like a winner for outdoor activity, with light northerly winds, sunny skies, and highs likely in the 60s.

Next week

We’re still watching the forecast for Christmas Day closely—it’s now just 10 days away! The European model pretty clearly shows a warming trend on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, and then brings a fairly stout front through on Christmas Eve. This would set the stage for what would probably be a cold and clear Christmas Day. The GFS model seems to be coming around to this scenario as well, but it’s not as set upon it. Bottom line: We are probably looking at seasonal, cold weather for Christmas, but the forecast is far enough out that overall confidence remains low.