September ended last night, and all told Houston’s Hobby Airport recorded a total of 13.07 inches of rain during the month. This makes it the third wettest September at this location since records were first kept in 1930, the National Weather Service says. Moreover, out of the 1,069 total months of observations, this September ranks as the 20th wettest on record. It was in fact the wettest month at Hobby since August of 2017, when Hurricane Harvey impacted the region. There is no rain to speak of in our present-day forecast, however.

Thursday

Lows this morning are a few degrees warmer than Wednesday morning, and highs probably will shoot up into the upper 80s this afternoon with the fairly dry air and sunny skies. A front will push into Houston later this evening, but the dry and cooler air associated with it will lag, likely arriving Friday morning. Therefore lows Thursday night may only drop into the mid-60s in the city.

Friday and Saturday

These will be a pair of fine, sunny days, with highs of around 80 degrees. Lows in Houston should drop to near 60 on both Friday and Saturday nights—with warmer conditions along the coast, and cooler weather prevailing inland. By Saturday the onshore flow should resume.

Sunday

This should be a slightly warmer day, with highs reaching the mid, or possibly upper 80s, beneath sunny skies. We still think a secondary push of dry air will back into the area from the northeast sometime on Sunday, although I’m not highly confident in how strong, or persistent it will be.

Next week

The the wake of Sunday’s (weak?) front, expect highs to likely stay within the low- to mid-80s for the first couple of days next week with lows in the 80s. As we’ve been saying this won’t be cold weather, but it will be mild. We still expect some clouds to begin dotting the skies by around next Wednesday as humidity begins to return with vengeance. Some slight rain chances return by Friday or so.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is now tracking two disturbances in or near the Caribbean Sea, and its five-day tropical outlook can look pretty intimidating at first glance. The first system, shown in red, has a 70 percent chance of developing over the next five days, and the follow-on system a 20 percent chance.

However, the reality is that the overall pattern suggests high pressure moving into Texas early next week should buffer the state from both storms. The map below shows the European model’s ensemble track forecast for all tropical lows from now through next Saturday. The model basically forces anything that forms into the Bay of Campeche, and of those that survive, a few eventually get pulled northeast toward Louisiana or Florida.

So here’s what we think. Is it annoying that there are two potential tropical storms looming in the Caribbean Sea? Sure. Do we believe any of them are likely to threaten Texas in a meaningful way? At this time it’s very difficult to see how that happens.

 

Temperatures this morning have fallen into the 50s across much of the city—with only the coast holding out at slightly above 60 degrees—and this is the coolest weather Houston has seen since mid-April. This is also as cold as it’s going to get for a while here. But the good news, if you like fall, is that we should see a few more fronts in the next week to keep our region on the mostly dry and mild side going into next week.

Wednesday

Not much to say about today’s weather. We’re going to see sunny skies, with a high temperature in the mid-80s. Light winds will shift to come out of the southwest this morning, and that will slowly begin the process of returning the onshore flow. Lows tonight will probably be about five degrees warmer than Tuesday night.

Thursday

This will be a warmer day with the influence of a southerly flow, likely allowing high temperatures to push into the upper 80s under sunny skies. But just as Houston shows signs of heating up, a moderate push of cooler and drier air will arrive late Thursday night or Friday morning.

Friday and Saturday

This weak front should make for a splendid weekend, with highs in the low 80s, lows in the low 60s for all but the coast, and lots of sunshine. It’s not going to be “cold” by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s not going to be hot or humid either. This is fall in Houston!

Sunday

This should be another day like Thursday, as the influence of the onshore flow begins to warm things up. We should see highs in the mid- to upper-80s with partly sunny skies and moderately more humid air. However we think yet another weak (or maybe stronger?) front will arrive late on Sunday, or early Monday, to keep the heat and humidity in check.

Next week

As a result of Sunday or Monday’s front, the early part of the week should keep us in the realm of highs in the 80s, and lows in the upper 50s to 60 degrees. Some clouds may return by the middle or end of next week, but our first real rain chances probably don’t come until next Friday or Saturday.

Houston’s temperature officially reached 65 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport this morning shortly after 2 am, and from there it kept on falling. By shortly before sunrise, the low had dropped to 57 degrees. At Hobby Airport, in the midst of the city, the low reached 59 degrees on Tuesday morning. It all feels rather spectacular, and worth celebrating Fall Day.

Tuesday

Simply put, today will be fabulous. There still will be a bit of wind out of the north, but it won’t be like Monday’s gusty conditions. Highs will likely only reach about 80 degrees despite sunny skies. And this evening, well, temperatures should drop a degree or two below what we saw on Monday night beneath clear skies. Winds will be calm.

Wednesday

After another cool morning—chilly, even, for far inland areas—this should be another splendid day for the area, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. As the frontal air mass begins to modify, expect lows on Wednesday night to be several degrees warmer.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of warmer days, with a few clouds possible on Thursday. Both days should see highs somewhere in the mid-80s, or possibly upper 80s on Thursday. Another, weaker front should push into Houston on Friday and this will set the stage for a nice weekend.

Saturday and Sunday

With another push of drier air, the first half of the weekend looks great, with highs on Saturday in the low 80s, and fairly low humidity. The onshore flow should return on Sunday, but I’d still expect highs to stay in the 80s, with plenty of sunshine. Should be a great weekend for outdoor activities.

Next week

Right now it appears as though another modest front may make it into Houston on next Monday, or so, but details are a bit sketchy. The bottom line is that we expect mostly sunny skies through the middle of next week, by which time a chance of rain finally returns to the forecast.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance that an area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea will develop into a tropical depression or storm to 50 percent over the next five days. There are probably a couple of scenarios for this system, including a weaker storm tracking westward into Mexico, or eventually a strong storm moving north toward Florida. Again, while we can’t rule anything out, we have a hard time seeing how it would eventually move toward Texas.

The summer of 2020, which featured the 5th warmest July and 8th warmest August on record, threw two tropical cyclones at Houston, and offered unsparing humidity, died on Monday. It was 123 days old. Summer finally lost its fight with fall’s first truly strong front, which blew into Houston on the morning of September 28th. Services have been canceled due to a lack of mourners.

I realize that some people do like Houston summers, and that’s fine. But for the majority of us in Houston, there is nothing sweeter than the arrival of fall’s first real front. And my friends, that day is today. As of 6:45 am, the front has passed a line from The Woodlands to Katy, and it should be off the coast before noon.

Monday

A thin, broken line of showers is accompanying this morning’s front, and clouds may linger for a few hours after its passage. After this we should see clearing skies, and a northerly breeze gusting to perhaps 20 or 25 mph. This will bring much drier air into the region. On Sunday evening, when I went for a walk, it was sticky—the dewpoint was 77 degrees. This evening, the dewpoint will be 25 or 30 degrees lower. The difference will be unreal. High temperatures today will probably crest at about 80 degrees and begin falling this evening. Low temperatures outside of Houston will likely drop into the 50s, reach about 60 in the city, and be a few degrees warmer right along the coast.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Hello, fall! Look for sunny skies, highs of around 80 degrees, and lows down around 60 degrees give or take. (Wednesday morning will probably be the coolest morning of the week for most locations). Oh, and there will be plenty of dry air.

Thursday

This day could be warmer, pushing into the mid- or upper-80s as the onshore flow returns.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Right now the weekend looks quite nice, with a secondary push of dry air arriving on Friday or so. Our details about this part of the forecast are a bit sketchy, but generally we’d expect lots of sunshine this weekend, with highs of around 80 degrees, the low 80s, or maybe a bit warmer by Sunday. The bottom line, look for pleasant, sunny weather to prevail.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center has begun monitoring a low pressure area over the northwest Caribbean Sea. Over the next week or 10 days this may eventually develop into a tropical storm, but we have no reason to think it would eventually track toward Texas.