Houston’s weather will be rather boring for awhile, and that’s not bad

Good morning. We stick to weather on this site—and so there are no politics here. But we would like to thank everyone in Houston, Texas, and the rest of the country who spent Tuesday working at poll locations, counting ballots late into the night and even today, and otherwise ensuring our nation’s free and fair elections. We should be proud of our ability to conduct an election in the midst of a pandemic, with record turnout.

Wednesday

The Houston region will warm up some today as high pressure that has provided us with clear and cool weather moves east. This will allow for a more pronounced flow of moisture into the metro region today, leading to moderately warmer nights and somewhat more humidity. As a result, we can expect highs today to reach into the upper 70s to 80 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies, and for lows to be about 10 degrees warmer than recent nights for most locations. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday and Friday

The weather to end this week will basically remain in a stasis pattern as an upper-level low pressure system develops over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to the formation of some clouds on Thursday morning, and should help to arrest and possibly reverse the region’s warming trend. Highs both days will rise into the upper 70s to 80 degrees, but nighttime lows may drop back into the 50s for most of the region on Thursday and Friday nights. Despite the proximity of the upper-level low, however, I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of rain chances.

Temperature forecast for central Houston over the next week. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

By this weekend I think it will be “game on” for the warming trend, and this will lead to considerably more humidity, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and nights warming into the mid- to upper-60s in Houston. Skies should remain mostly sunny.

Next week

When I look to the forecast for next week I can’t help but groan as it’s really not becoming all that much more clear. At this point some kind of front is likely to reach the coast on Tuesday, and bring a reasonable chance of light to moderate rain with it. But I can’t say with much confidence how much cool air will be arriving with the front, or how long it will stick—maybe a day or two? Then there is some evidence, which is far from overwhelming, for a stronger front toward the weekend. Weather forecasting isn’t perfect, folks, but I think it’s safe to say we do better than polls most days.

Tropics

Eta made landfall as a major hurricane on Tuesday, bringing life-threatening storm surge into Nicaragua, and lashing Central America with extremely heavy rainfall. The storm will meander across Honduras, and likely Guatemala, before turning northeast and moving back into the Caribbean Sea. I have not been able to find reliable reports of the devastation so far caused in Central America.

Eta’s track by Sunday becomes highly uncertain. (National Hurricane Center)

If you liked the uncertainty in our forecast for next week’s weather in Houston, you’ll love it for the future of Eta in about a week’s time. I think it is safe to say the storm will move toward Cuba this weekend, and then probably approach southern Florida.

We have real questions about how strong the storm will be at that time, and whether it begins to loop around in absence of any pronounced steering currents—perhaps somewhere in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Eta is definitely something for Florida and the southeastern United States to watch, but not something we need concern ourselves with in Texas.

Houston experiencing its coldest morning for awhile today

Good morning. Today is an important day for our republic, the one day a year when two halves come together to create something great. This tradition dates to the 1700s, and people often take time off from work to partake in this custom, walking up to a counter and making their choice around lunchtime. I am speaking, of course, of National Sandwich Day. Also, please do make sure you go vote in our election today, as the weather will provide no excuses.

Election Day

Temperatures this morning in Houston, in the low 40s for inland areas and upper 40s in the city, will probably be the region’s coolest for the next week. We’ll warm up fairly quickly, however, and the weather today will be, in a word, perfect. Highs will reach into the mid-70s, under mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light out of the east. Overnight lows on Tuesday night should be a few degrees warmer.

Tuesday morning lows are quite cool across the region. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be pleasant days, under the influence of a light east and southeasterly flow. In general, we expect mostly sunny skies, highs in the upper 70s to 80, and lows of around 60 in Houston—cooler inland, and warmer along the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

By this weekend a more pronounced southerly flow will raise humidity levels. Ultimately, high temperatures should hang around 80 degrees, but both Saturday and Sunday nights should be warmer, probably in the mid- or upper-60s.

Next week

This warming trend should continue until around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, when some sort of front will trundle into the area. I still don’t have confidence in its timing or strength, but there is some hope it will bring us our first real chance of rainfall in quite some time.

A very powerful Hurricane Eta nears landfall on Tuesday morning. (NOAA)

Tropics

If you have not been paying attention to Hurricane Eta, it absolutely exploded in terms of intensity on Monday, and it will come ashore into Nicaragua today with Category-4 or -5 intensity winds. In addition, the storm will deliver devastating flooding in Nicaragua and Honduras. The storm is eerily similar in intensity to Hurricane Mitch, in 1998, which caused more than 11,000 fatalities.

By this weekend, after wreaking carnage in Central America, Eta should reemerge into the northwest Caribbean Sea, after which time it may threaten Cuba, Florida, or possibly the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It’s just too early to say much more.

Houston will enjoy a week of splendid fall weather

Good morning. October has come and gone. The first ten days of the month were near normal, in terms of weather, followed by a middle period that was very warm. Many sites recorded record highs in the low 90s. But the last week of the month was much cooler, generally with days in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

All in all, then, the Houston area ended with near normal temperatures. Here’s a map showing departure from normal temperatures for the month along with the rest of the country.

Temperature anomaly for October, 2020. (Weathermodels.com)

Monday

A cool front pushed into Houston on Sunday, and this has made for a cool night, with lows generally dropping into the 40s except for parts of the city, and near the coast. As a result, the region will enjoy splendid fall weather today, with highs in the low 70s beneath sunny skies. Expect another clear and cool night, with temperatures perhaps dropping a degree or two cooler than Sunday night.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

We’ll see a slight warmup this week as winds shift to come from the east, and eventually the southeast. Still, we expect three mostly sunny days, with highs in the mid- to upper-70s for most. Nights will warm some, from the 50s on Tuesday night to around 60 by Thursday. This is really fall as it should be in Houston.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The onshore flow will become a little more pronounced by this weekend, and this should allow temperatures and humidity to creep up somewhat. I still expect mostly sunny skies, and this should allow highs to reach into the low 80s, with nights warming into the 60s. We might even see a slight chance of rain as moisture levels continue to climb in the atmosphere—but the signal for this is fairly weak.

Expect a gradual warm-up this week. (Weather Bell)

Next week

The overall pattern supports the passage of a cold front by around Tuesday of next week—but this is eight days into the future so it’s difficult to have too much confidence in this timing. This front, whenever it pushes through, will probably bring our region’s next real chance of rain with it as well.

Tropics

The season that won’t quit produced another hurricane this past weekend, with Hurricane Eta moving toward Nicaragua and intensifying. The 2020 Atlantic season is now tied with 2005 for the number of tropical storms and hurricanes that formed, 28. Eta, unfortunately, is going to bring plenty of misery to Central America in terms of winds, but the greater threat will come from heavy rainfall due to the slow-moving system. This will cause mudslides, swollen rivers, and plenty of devastation.

Monday morning track forecast for Hurricane Eta. (National Hurricane Center)

By the coming weekend, Eta probably will reemerge into the Caribbean Sea, and over the course of next week it may threaten Cuba, Florida, or elsewhere. This is something forecasters will have to watch for awhile, but it is not a storm that should concern us in Texas or even hard-hit Louisiana.

Spectacular autumn weekend ahead for Houston, while the tropics show no quit

Good morning, and it’s a cool one again across the area. We have mostly 40s and some low-50s peppered in everywhere.

Temperatures are generally in the 40s and low 50s across most of the area this morning, a cool start! (NOAA)

Yesterday began one of the coolest but nicest stretches of weather for us in a long while that will continue through the weekend.

Today & weekend

Look for simply spectacular autumn weather all weekend long. We’ll top off in the upper-60s today with wall to wall sunshine. Look for low-70s tomorrow and mid-70s on Sunday. Morning lows will generally be in the mid-40s to mid-50s through Sunday. Winds should be lighter than they’ve been the last couple days.

For trick or treating, look for comfortable weather this year. Expect upper-50s to low-60s north and mid to upper-60s or a tick or two warmer in the city of Houston and points south.

Early next week

A reinforcing shot of drier, cooler air will arrive Sunday evening, so you’ll notice offshore winds kick up again later Sunday and on Monday. Look for cooler temperatures again Monday with highs in the 60s for most of us. Tuesday should see low-70s with lighter winds, and Wednesday likely sees mid-70s. Morning lows look cool on Monday and especially Tuesday. Look for upper-40s or low-50s Monday morning and mostly 40s on Tuesday morning.

Morning lows on Tuesday will bottom out in the low to mid-40s most places. (NOAA forecast via Weather Bell)

Look for some high clouds and warmer temps to return on Wednesday, and that heralds a pretty substantial and possibly lengthy warm-up that may linger through next weekend and into the following week.

Tropics

We knew 2020 was going to be an active hurricane season, but the absurdity of it all has still been surprising. It’s really been non-stop in the Gulf, either dealing with a threat or looking ahead to the next one since Hanna struck South Texas back in late July. Hurricane Zeta may have been the most impressive of them all for how anomalous it was.

Zeta is the strongest known storm back to at least 1850 in the western Gulf this late in the hurricane season.

Zeta peaked at 95 kts. (and I wouldn’t be shocked to see it reanalyzed at 100 kts. (115 mph) in the offseason), which shatters the record of 75 kts. that far northwest in the Gulf for this late in the year. More impressively, Zeta’s intensity ramped up 40 kts. (45 mph) in 26 hours.

The previous record from late October onward was somewhere between 10-21 kts. In that respect, Zeta is in a league of its own. Hurricane season technically runs through November 30th, but in the western Gulf, we usually shut down in mid-October. Zeta obliterated that paradigm. Why? Well, it’s not that the Gulf is super-warm. In fact, Zeta continued steadily strengthening over cooler water in the northern Gulf. The amplified, weird pattern over the West and Plains, responsible for our cold front, the ice storm in Oklahoma and parts of Texas, and the snow in the Rockies helped supercharge Zeta as it approached Louisiana.

This was a case where shear was actually in a sweet spot for a storm and helped it along. The deep trough and very strong jet stream winds over Texas (known as a jet streak) actually helped Zeta find an environment that would be hospitable for a low pressure system to intensify within. This further underscores that water temperatures are far from everything when it comes to hurricane intensity. In this case we had a Gulf of Mexico that was only slightly supportive for a storm, but the storm got juiced by the atmospheric pattern over the Plains and Southeast. And the end result was a memorable, odd late season storm. Zeta also will end up being the strongest storm to make landfall so late in the season on the entire Gulf Coast. Zeta’s forward speed of over 45 mph over the Southeast made it one of the fastest moving storms on record (for any date) over the continental United States.

And we aren’t finished. The National Hurricane Center has 80 percent odds that a tropical wave in the Caribbean (dubbed Invest 96L) will develop into a depression or storm in the next 5 days.

A tropical wave tagged as Invest 96L has an 80% chance of development over the next 5 days. (NOAA)

If it gets a name, it will be called Eta, and 2020 would officially tie 2005 for the most storms on record in the Atlantic basin. As much as it pains me to write this, Eta is a storm that should probably be watched from Louisiana to Florida. It’s likely to percolate off the coast of Central America much of next week before perhaps being ushered north next weekend by our next weather maker over the Plains & Texas. How exactly that plays out is TBD. This is highly unlikely to come to Texas, but there a number of model solutions that bring it into the eastern Gulf or off the Florida coast. So, yet again, another one for our neighbors to the east to watch. We’ll update you on Monday.