Nearly three months have passed since we first addressed COVID-19 and the then-unknown effect of weather on its spread in warmer climates. Since that time we have learned some things, and have three months of data to draw upon in Texas. From this we can conclude that although weather may have some modest effect, it is not likely to have a significant dampening effect on the transmission of the disease.

COVID-19 and Texas

We’ll start this post by looking at the spread of COVID-19 in Texas. I encourage you to visit this site, put together by Peter James Walker, which provides amazing visualizations of coronavirus data (from the Texas Department of State Health Services) with regard to testing, positive cases, deaths, and hospitalizations. This allows us to understand trends in the data.

Here we can see that cases are more or less increasing in line with more testing across the state. However, after initially dropping, the share of positive tests seems to be increasing, up to 7 percent from 5 percent about one month ago. So far, at least, deaths have not caught up to cases. This may be due to better care, or some other factors. It’s just hard to know.

What concerns us is that hospitalizations have reached a record high in Texas for COVID-19. You may have questions about the test data, or false positives, but hospitalizations for COVID-19 are measurement that is difficult to fudge. The trend is upward, and real. We are still a ways away from reaching hospital and ICU capacity in Houston or across the state, but the concern is where does the trend go from here? I don’t think anyone can say.

Weather and COVID-19

What we can say is that this spike in hospitalizations (and thus, severe cases) due to the virus is occurring at the very moment when summer heat is beginning to descend on Texas. The state’s average temperature in June reaches 90 degrees. Much of the state is humid most of the time in summer. And still, the disease is spreading. In fact, based upon the hospitalization data, it seems clear that COVID-19 is more widespread now in Texas than at any time before. The disease is spiking even harder in other, similarly warm states, such as Arizona.

This supports the emerging science viewpoint on weather and COVID 19, that summer heat will not be much of a factor in slowing its initial spread through the human population.

The public health messaging from the World Health Organization and the U.S. government amidst this pandemic has not been consistent or particularly good. However, the data are telling us that COVID-19 is still spreading in Texas despite the heat. It may become even more widespread this summer as we (understandably) seek to return to a business-as-normal posture. What seems prudent is the continued wearing of masks in locations where social distancing is not possible. When you wear a mask it may be uncomfortable, you may think it makes you look funny. But you’re also telling the person next to you that you value them, and want to do your part to prevent spreading COVID-19 too far.

Sponsor Note from Reliant

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Winds have shifted to come from the north this morning, and dewpoints are falling in the wake of a cold front passage. On Tuesday morning at 6am CT, the dewpoint temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport was 75 degrees; this morning at the same time it is 55 degrees. The lower the dewpoint, the drier the air feels, and it makes quite a difference. There is a chance dewpoints in parts of the city could fall below 50 degrees later today and this evening.

To get a sense of how rare such a front is during the summer months of June, July, and August, consider historical dewpoints in June. Matt compiled how many times the dewpoint has fallen below 50 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, since 1980. Here’s the list of days, with the number of hours below 50 degrees:

• Jun 1, 1984 (5 hrs)
• Jun 11, 1988 (4 hrs)
• Jul 13, 1990 (3 hrs)
• Jun 9, 1996 (1 hr)
• Jun 1, 2012 (4 hrs)

So if you’ve been wondering why meteorologists are making a big deal out of a “front” that only knocks high temperatures down into the low- to mid-90s, the answer is very dry air. It will have a meaningful effect on both humidity and temperatures this evening when you walk outside.

Wednesday

Nearly all of Harris County missed out on rain showers as the front moved through this morning, as they ended up developing east and south of the region. High temperatures today will go up into the low-90s with sunny skies. Winds will blow from the north at 10 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the 60s for most of the area—heavenly for mid-June to be sure—but we’ll probably remain above the record low for June 11 of 61 degrees, set in 1976.

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A few areas south of Houston saw some light to moderate showers on Monday, and the region will have one more shot at rain early on Wednesday morning. But after that conditions look really dry for at least a week or 10 days. Fortunately, the entire Houston metro area is at present drought-free. In fact, most of Texas is doing quite well for early June, with just 1.3 percent of the state in a “severe” drought or worse. This is a pretty decent posture in which to head into the hot summer months.

As local residents will know, during the middle of summer Houston often gets stuck beneath domes of high pressure for which it will not rain for days and days. Oftentimes, this pattern will only break with the incursion of tropical moisture. And then we enter the feast-or-famine state in which we can go from a drought to flooding within a couple of hours. So it goes along the Gulf Coast, during the summer. (At present we see no indications of tropical activity in the Gulf after Cristobal).

Tuesday

Speaking of heat, today will be hot and humid, so take care this afternoon when temperatures push into the upper 90s and the heat index soars into the 100s. Skies will be partly sunny, with light winds from the south. Weather conditions today will be a “proper” summer day in that it will mirror the kind of weather we typically see at the peak of heating in Houston, during late July and much of August. You’ve been warned.

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