A low-pressure center has moved from Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico, and the National Hurricane Center has determined that Tropical Depression Three has formed. It likely will become Tropical Storm Cristobal within the next 12 to 24 hours. This doesn’t really change much from earlier, as we expected development when the center got over the warm Bay of Campeche. And the most important message I want to leave you with today is that we are a long way from knowing where this system is going, and what it’s going to do.

This image should help explain why:

In this graphic I have zoomed in on the National Hurricane Center’s 4pm CT Monday five-day track forecast for the depression. Note that it is expected to spend the next four days wobbling around the Southern Gulf of Mexico. It may even go inland and die out, allowing another center to re-form to the north. One thing is sure, regions of Southern Mexico around the Bay of Campeche are going to get drenched.

The forecast models are really struggling with what happens this week as the storm swirls around the Bay of Campeche. Because of this, it is hard to have much confidence in what happens after the next four days. However, the most likely outcome is that some kind of tropical system will eventually move northward toward the Central Gulf of Mexico by Friday or Saturday. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to know how strong it will be, and where it will go thereafter.

Based upon the ensemble modeling shown above, Texas and Louisiana remain the most likely destinations. Something may come ashore Sunday-ish, but we just can’t say whether it will take the form of diffuse showers, an organized tropical storm (most likely), or possibly even a hurricane. Looking ahead to the weekend we are so far into the thickets of uncertainty with this depression, given its wobbly nature over the next few days, that it’s not really possible to say more than that. Is heavy rain possible this weekend? Yes. Should we be overly concerned about it yet? Certainly not yet. Could a hurricane hit somewhere along Texas this weekend? Yes. Are the overall chances high, as in 50 percent or higher? As of now, at least, the answer is definitely no. Chances are significantly lower than that.

We’ll have more tomorrow, just don’t expect much more clarity on the situation for a day or two at least. We’re still definitely in wait-and-see mode with this storm.

Last week, we briefly mentioned the possibility of a disturbance forming in the Gulf of Mexico in early June, and that now appears more likely to happen. We have plenty of more questions than answers, and the most important message we can offer right now is to not be overly concerned with this. Watch it, yes, and we will. But we don’t know whether a tropical storm will even form, whether it will strengthen, or where it will ultimately go. So let’s talk about what we do know.

Tropical Storm Amanda formed in the Pacific Ocean early this morning south of Guatemala, and it will bring very heavy rainfall to Central America over the next couple of days as it moves generally northward. Its center, likely to weaken into a depression or weak low-pressure system, will then probably move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Monday or Tuesday. At that point it should find favorable conditions to potentially strengthen some time next week. The National Hurricane Center now rates it as having a 50 percent chance of development over the next five days. If it does so, it probably would be renamed Cristobal.

Most of our best model guidance suggests that steering currents will be relatively weak for a couple of days, perhaps into Thursday. And as the tropical system cools its heels this will make for very wet conditions in Mexico, likely most acutely in the states of Veracruz, Tabasco, and Campeche. Perhaps by later Thursday or Friday this low pressure system—which could be a tropical depression or storm by then—will begin to lift north.

After that it is difficult to say much intelligible. There are several factors at play, including a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States. Depending on the strength of this ridge, it could push a tropical system near Texas or Louisiana about one week from today. Most likely, this system will be of the tropical storm variety, given that it is only early June. However, the Gulf of Mexico waters are warmer than normal, so there is at least a chance (20 percent, perhaps?) that the storm strengthens into a hurricane. In any case, the biggest threat is probably rainfall, and toward the end of next week it’s possible that some location along the Gulf Coast picks up a healthy amount of precipitation. While this could occur anywhere from northern Mexico to Florida, Texas is very much in play based on the latest model guidance.