The good news is that if you enjoyed Monday’s weather we have plenty more days like that this week—warm, but not too warm, with lots of sunshine. Wednesday will be the only real exception to that. Our weekend weather also looks pretty fine if you’re looking for sunshine and drier air.
Tuesday
Any patchy fog this morning should burn off quickly, and like on Monday we should see a transition to partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. However, with winds turning to come from the southeast later today we expect clouds to return pretty quickly this evening to make for mostly cloudy skies. Highs today should reach the low 80s for most people, with low temperatures Tuesday night falling to around 70 in the city—lower inland, and warmer along the coast.
Severe weather outlook for Wednesday. (NOAA)
Wednesday
This is the one day this week the potential for some dynamic weather. An upper-level storm system will drop down toward Texas on Wednesday, but the effects look to be most pronounced for north and east Texas, with the Houston metro area on the southern periphery of the action. Models suggest that a mass of showers and thunderstorms will move through Houston during the afternoon or early evening hours on Wednesday, with the better organization north of Interstate 10. Areas such as Montgomery County and points north may see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, while much of the rest of the region sees a few tenths of an inch or less. Highs Wednesday will be around 80 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.
Sunday’s storms were again hit or miss. Some parts of Montgomery County picked up more than 2 inches of rainfall and saw plenty of lightning, while the southern half of Harris County saw very little rainfall. Looking ahead, we will see a pair of sedate, mostly sunny days before another chance of storms later on Wednesday. Our early look at next weekend’s forecast is mostly optimistic.
Monday
Skies should transition from cloudy, to partly sunny, to mostly sunny by early afternoon. This should help high temperatures push into the mid-80s this afternoon, with light winds from the north switching to come from the southeast. All in all this will be a pretty typical day for late April in Houston. Some clouds return tonight, as lows fall into the 60s for most of the area except for the coast.
Monday’s high temperatures. (Pivotal Weather)
Tuesday
This will be another day like Monday, in that early morning clouds should transition to sunnier skies later in the day. Highs will again settle somewhere in the mid-80s, although the southeasterly flow of winds should become a little more pronounced, making for a bit warmer night as clouds return. The southern half of Houston probably won’t fall below 70 degrees overnight.
Good morning, everyone. We interrupt your Sunday with a short post on the threat posed by severe weather today. Strong thunderstorms are possible in Houston this morning and during the early afternoon hours ahead of a cold front.
Thunderstorms will develop over Houston later this morning. (NOAA)
Several favorable dynamics in the atmosphere—including an eroding capping inversion—should combine to allow organized storms to form along a eastward-moving system that will push through Houston between around 9am and 3pm today. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. It is likely that a tornado “watch” will be issued for the area.
Note that this is not a classic line of storms, and some locations could see more than one round of severe weather. Rainfall accumulations will vary widely, but we do not expect widespread flooding issues. Not everyone will see severe weather, and chances are probably a little bit better north of Interstate 10, but please do be weather aware today.
In the wake of the front tonight, expect clearing skies and lows in the 60s. Monday and Tuesday should be pleasant, sunny days with a chance of storms returning Wednesday.
What a week it has been. The last several days have been just fantastic as we prepare for the days of heat and humidity in summer. Onshore winds have returned however, and another drawn out period of unsettled weather begins today. For those yearning for rainfall, especially south and southwest of Houston, this looks to be another potentially frustrating event. We break it all down below.
Today & tonight
Clouds have become a little more widespread overnight and this morning, and today should see more clouds than sun for most areas. Look for showers to develop through the morning and into this afternoon as a cold front begins to approach from the north and west.
Showers should not be particularly heavy or significant, but a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. There’s a good chance many of us may not see much of anything today, but have an umbrella at the ready if you’ll be out later today.
Clouds, warmer temperatures, and scattered showers with perhaps a thunderstorm will be the story today. (NWS Houston)
The front itself should wait to get through the Houston area until this evening. Shower chances should generally drop off tonight, and it will just be mostly cloudy with perhaps a little drizzle or mist in spots. It will be interesting to see what temperatures do behind the front. Like we saw last weekend, it got rather cool, so although I would expect us to only drop into the low-60s in Houston, we could see upper-50s in spots to the north overnight. Coastal areas may not get much below the upper-60s, as the front stalls nearby or just offshore.
Saturday
By later Saturday morning, our cold front should begin creeping back north as a warm front. With a disturbance passing by simultaneously, we should see showers and storms begin to break out across parts of the area. Initially the focus should be west of Houston, but it may move into the Houston area as the afternoon goes on. As has been the case recently, the heaviest rain chance may be to the north of Houston.
The last several storms tracking across the region have produced seriously mixed results for our area. In fact, if you just look at Highway 59/I-69, you can get two very different narratives on either side of the highway. West or north of 59 has been rainfall rich, with 150 to 200% of normal rain over the last month. That steadily drops to near 25% of normal at the coast on the other side of the highway. There’s nothing special about Highway 59, but it conveniently works as a boundary here.
30 day percent of normal precipitation across Texas has bisected our region with Montgomery County seeing 200% of normal rainfall, while Galveston has seen probably about 25% of normal.
The last few severe weather risks have also been fairly underwhelming in our area too, with a few exceptions. It’s important to understand that with these types of storm systems in our area, there a lot of things that have to come together to generate storms. This one looks to be no different. And yet again, the best chance for more rain will be to our north and west.
So look for scattered showers, thunderstorms, and downpours on Saturday. Many of you won’t see anything on Saturday, but some folks may see a shot of storms. Severe weather risk is low but not zero. If we do get storms going, look for strong winds or some hail to be the primary risks.
As far as temperatures go, look for us to warm into the 70s on Saturday afternoon.
