Last night was quite active in parts of the area. In other parts of the area? Yeah, it felt like a flop.

Rain totals were quite erratic. Southern areas saw low amounts. Northern areas saw variable amounts. A gage just east of IAH Airport between Will Clayton Parkway and the Beltway along Garners Bayou nearly received 3″ of rain. But that was very much the exception yesterday. Rain totals elsewhere were less than a quarter inch in many places like Tomball, Cypress, Katy, and Sugar Land. The Woodlands saw a pretty good storm, but even there, it moved fast enough that rain totals were generally under an inch.

Severe weather was not really an issue in the Houston area either. Most reports yesterday came from the Brazos Valley and back west toward Austin and even those were few.

Anyway, with that in the rear-view mirror, we can start talking about the next round.

Today

First off, today looks quiet. We will have clouds for the bulk of the day, but it will feel refreshing after yesterday’s record heat (91° at Hobby was a new record, 91° at Bush fell a degree short). Look for highs mostly in the 70s today. It will also be a good bit breezy at times with winds out of the east or northeast around 15 mph with higher gusts, especially over the bays and Gulf.

Saturday through Sunday morning

For Saturday, morning, lows will be in the low-60s or even upper-50s, but temperatures will rebound into the middle 70s through the day. An approaching warm front will send humidity up through the day as well.

The biggest question on Saturday revolves around rain and thunderstorms. Let’s work through this in order of likely outcomes. Scattered showers are likely Saturday morning and afternoon. Many of us may not see rain, but some of us will. Models differ in opinion on where rain will arrive, with a couple suggesting coastal areas and Houston will see a good deal of showers tomorrow morning. Others keep those areas mainly dry and focus development off to the north and west of Houston. We will call it scattered showers and go from there. A thunderstorm is also a good possibility too. For the most part, we do not expect significant severe weather Saturday morning or afternoon in Houston.

Severe weather on Saturday afternoon will probably begin in Hill Country or west of San Antonio toward Del Rio and the Rio Grande Valley.

Heading into Saturday night, with a warm front in the neighborhood and ample moisture in place with a strong disturbance approaching, that’s typically a recipe for thunderstorms to develop. There are still a lot of questions as to exactly how Saturday night is going to play out. There should be strong to severe thunderstorms in Central Texas moving into East Texas, especially north of I-10. We could see additional development of storms ahead of that off the Gulf. At this time, that looks more concerning east of the Houston area, more into Louisiana. But with a good bit of uncertainty still in play and a Sunday severe weather outlook that is still pretty aggressive nearby, I don’t want to rule anything out at this point.

Bottom line on Saturday night/Sunday early morning: Expect showers and potential for some thunderstorms. Some severe weather is possible, but odds may be highest north and east of Downtown Houston. Eric or myself will keep you posted this weekend if things get more serious.

There will be a couple boundaries pushing through Houston on Sunday. The boundary with storms should push out, ending the rain by 10-11 AM or so. The first cold front will follow around 12-2 PM or so. That will flip winds out of the west, and they should increase as well back to the 15 to 20 mph range, with higher gusts.

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Good morning. Confidence is increasing in the potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening in Houston. The primary threats from this will be strong thunderstorms, and the potential for large hail and downbursts. The chances for hail and damaging winds are better for the western half of the metro area.

Thursday

Skies are mostly cloudy this morning, with temperatures in the 70s. Clouds will remain as highs work their way into the upper 80s this afternoon. Storms are likely to get organized off to the west and north of Houston late this afternoon, and shift into the metro area from about 5pm to 10pm tonight. While most of the region probably will get around 1 inch of rain, or less, these storms have the potential to pretty quickly drop 3 or more inches in some locations. Therefore it is possible we will see some brief street flooding later this evening. The front should exit off the coast, along with the heavier rainfall, by or before midnight.

Friday

A few light showers may be possible Friday morning before sunrise, but for the most part we can probably expect mostly cloudy skies transitioning to some sunshine during the afternoon hours. With forecast highs in the mid-70s and lower humidity, this could turn into a fairly nice spring-like day. Which is good, because Saturday probably won’t be so nice.

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I was pleasantly surprised to be wrong on Tuesday night. I expected mostly cloudy skies to preclude local sightings of the full Moon—dubbed a supermoon by some because it is the closest full Moon of 2020, about 7 percent larger than a regular full Moon. However skies for the first couple of hours after sunset were clear, affording an amazing view of our heavenly companion. I hope you were able to enjoy it as well.

Wednesday

Skies are mostly cloudy this morning, with warm temperatures in the mid-70s. A few very scattered, light showers are possible before noon, but we should see some partial clearing of our skies this afternoon. This, in concert with a strong southwesterly flow aloft, will bring the region’s warmest day of the week. Depending on how much sunshine we see, highs will range from the mid-80s to low-90s across the region. Clouds should build again during the overnight hours, with another warm night in the 70s.

Thursday

This has the potential to be a more dynamic day, with an approaching cold front. This front, in concert with a disturbed upper atmosphere, will bring a healthy chance of showers to the region, along with a slight chance of severe thunderstorms and possibly hail. In terms of timing, my best guess right now is the afternoon through Thursday night, but hopefully we’ll get some clarity on this over the next 24 hours. In any case, Thursday will be cloudy, with highs in the 80s. The front arrives during the overnight hours.

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Good morning. Houston is headed toward a period of three very warm days before somewhat more moderate temperatures this weekend. But in case you feared that spring has entirely fled the region, we are reasonably confident that a fairly strong outbreak of cooler weather will arrive next week. Texas will mostly lie in the southern periphery of much colder temperatures for the United States, but we should still see a few nights in the 50s—and I’m not ruling out the 40s, either—about a week from today.

Tuesday

This morning is starting off foggy, but this should burn off by around 9am. After the fog goes away we’ll be left with a mostly cloudy and warm day. Winds at the surface will be light, out of the south or southwest, but if we go a little higher in the atmosphere we can see a pronounced southwesterly flow. This movement of warmer air into the region (see satellite image from early this morning below) will really help drive warmer temperatures. Highs Tuesday should get into the mid- to upper-80s, and overnight lows are unlikely to drop below 70. Rain chances are near zero.

Wednesday

After a cloudy start, we expect some sunshine to break through on Wednesday afternoon. With partly sunny skies, we probably will see high temperatures nudge up to near 90 degrees, if not hit that plateau. Expect another warm night.

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