Good morning. December has started out on the chilly side, with average temperatures generally running about 5 degrees below normal since the start of the month. The question is, will this trend continue? As you may recall, seasonal forecasts predicted a generally warmer than normal winter for the region. This probably still holds as I think the middle of December will likely bring warmer weather—with a sustained stretch of highs in the 70s—but right now I’m not seeing any evidence in the models of abnormally weather for weeks on end. I guess we’ll just have to see how things unfold.

Monday

Conditions are clear and cool this morning, with temperatures generally in the 40s across the region. We’ll see a splendid winter day, with highs climbing into the mid-60s for much of Houston, along with sunny skies, and light northerly winds. With clear skies and light winds prevailing overnight, lows on Monday night may drop into the upper 30s for a few areas north and west of Houston, but generally most of the city should remain the 40s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Temperatures will warm slightly, with a pair of sunny days expected. Highs will reach about 70 degrees both days, with lows both nights generally in the upper 40s—although the coast will probably only fall into the low 50s. Dry air will prevail. However, by Wednesday evening or so, the onshore flow will return, and this will presage warmer nights and better rain chances later in the week.

Thursday and Friday

With southerly winds, we may start to see some clouds on Thursday, but rain chances should hold off until Friday. Highs likely will reach the mid-70s on Thursday, but the overnight temperature will be much warmer, likely only dropping into the low- to mid-60s for much of the metro area. Friday will see more clouds and healthy rain chances. Right now I’m expecting only modest accumulations, with 0.25 to 1 inch of rain for most of the area. Highs Friday should again reach into the low 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend outlook remains a bit uncertain. The most likely scenario is that a cold front pushes into the region by late Friday night or early Saturday morning, leading to sunny and cooler weather for both weekend days. But the ensemble members of both the GFS and European models are not fully bought in—so for now our forecast is a “probably.” If the front stalls before pushing through Houston, Saturday may end up rather warm and potentially rainy before the front more definitively pushes through on Saturday night or Sunday.

Next week

Houston will probably see something of a warming trend by Tuesday or so of next week and after that it may be a bit before we see another front. This is the time where I could see a week or so of warmer weather in the December 15 to 20 range—but we’re now getting to the point where forecasting becomes highly speculative.

We are headed for a relatively quiet weekend in southeast Texas, after a lot of active, changeable weather lately. With the exception of a minor hiccup tomorrow, we are in for quite a stretch of weather. More in a second.

Yesterday, Eric touched on the recent rains being of benefit to our area, and the latest drought monitor update certainly highlights this. The Houston region saw drought coverage drop from near 90 percent a week ago to only 41 percent this week.

And in reality, it’s actually even lower than that, as the rains from Wednesday were not included in this update. So look for drought conditions to minimize even a bit more next week. We can stop discussing drought for awhile now.

Today

Look for sunshine for much of today. There will likely be some high clouds passing through at times, but it should not be much worse than that. We will see highs in the 50s with a bit less wind than yesterday.

Weekend

A more robust area of high clouds will overspread the area tonight. We’ll call it mainly clear, but by sunrise tomorrow, it could be partly to mostly cloudy. Moisture gradually increases tomorrow, and we will likely see some light rain or passing showers break out, particularly south of I-10. We’ll probably see a good setup for “virga” later tomorrow and tomorrow night as well, rain falling aloft but evaporating before it hits the ground. We’ve got enough moisture aloft, but dry air will still be attempting to win out at the surface. So if you check radar this weekend, it may look worse than what reality is on the ground.

Moisture begins to thin out on Sunday, which means we should see mostly sunny skies develop.

Look for lows in the 40s in the city and at the coast Saturday morning, with 30s in outlying areas. Highs on Saturday will struggle a bit due to cloud cover and may limp into the 50s in spots.

Clouds will keep lows in the 40s in most spots on Sunday morning, followed up by a nice afternoon with highs near 60 degrees.

Early next week: Glorious

Monday and Tuesday look sunny and rather pleasant. Expect highs near 60 degrees on Monday and perhaps a few degrees warmer on Tuesday. Lows should be in the upper-30s or 40s. Wednesday looks good as well right now. There may be a dry front that reinforces cooler, drier air over us Tuesday or early Wednesday, and that would also reinforce sunshine.

To be honest, at this point, Monday through Wednesday of next week will be cool days, but they may be some of the nicest you could ask for in winter in Houston.

Later next week

Onshore flow finally kicks back in on Thursday or Friday, which should allow for clouds and warmer temperatures to come back. We may also see some morning fog. Our next storm system should arrive around this time, bringing a chance of rain probably focused on next weekend. Our next front will probably follow at some point Sunday or Monday. More on that next week. Enjoy the weekend!

A cold front has pushed through Houston, and the region will now see a period of sustained cooler weather and drier air. The front’s arrival was preceded by fairly widespread showers on Wednesday, capping a wet period over the last six days. During this time frame the metro area generally received 3 to 7 inches of rainfall, which will really benefit our trees. After what had been a really dry fall in terms of precipitation, the Houston region is now set up pretty well headed into a La Niña winter, which are typically drier than normal.

Thursday

Speaking of winter, it’s back. Temperatures are generally in the 40s this morning, and although skies will clear from west to east this morning, most of the region likely won’t warm past the mid-50s. A northerly breeze at 10 to 15 mph will make things feel quite cool. Moderate northerly winds will continue tonight, as low temperatures fall to around 40 degrees in the city of Houston. I don’t think outlying areas will see a light freeze, but areas north and west of the city will fall into the 30s.

Friday

A day a lot of like Thursday, albeit with lessening winds.

Saturday and Sunday

Do you have outdoor plans this weekend? If so, you’re in luck. High temperatures should moderate some, rising into the low 60s. Overnight lows will generally fall into the 40s. And with high pressure dominating we should see partly to mostly sunny skies throughout the weekend.

Next week

The general pattern for next week seems fairly clear—Monday and Tuesday should remain on the cooler side of things before a general warming trend begins from Wednesday onward. Highs likely will reach 70 degrees by Thursday or so. Rain chances seem minimal from now until at least next Friday, further underscoring the importance of the rain Houston received over the last six days.

The Houston region will see warmer weather today ahead of our next cool front, but the bigger story will be the potential for widespread rainfall. It looks like most of the area will see 1 to 3 inches between this morning and the evening before a front scours moisture from our region. This will set the stage for cooler and sunnier weather in the days ahead, including a splendid, winter-like weekend.

Wednesday

Houston’s radar is lighting up this morning as a reasonably moist atmosphere combines with favorable upper level conditions. Much of the region should see on-and-off rain showers today, but for the most part these should come at manageable rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour or less. A few locations may see more than 3 inches of rain today, and the most likely spot for that is along the coast. In addition to the rain, we may see the potential for some damaging winds, but the overall threat for that, along with any tornadoes, is fairly low. Highs today should reach nearly 70 degrees for most areas, with the front arriving in late afternoon for western parts of the region, and early evening closer to the coast. As the front moves in, any lingering showers will end. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s for most.

Thursday and Friday

We’ll see a pair of mostly sunny, cool days with highs likely somewhere in the 50s, and overnight lows around 40 degrees. I think outlying areas such as College Station will remain just above freezing on these nights, but it will be fairly close.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see continued mostly sunny skies, with highs perhaps a bit warmer, reaching 60 degrees, or the lower 60s. Nights will remain chilly as the region falls under a drier flow of air. We can probably expect lows in the low 40s. These are about the averages one would expect to see in January.

Next week

Cooler weather will remain in the cards through the middle of next week, most likely. We may see a warming trend back toward highs of around 70 degrees by the second half of next week, but it’s definitely going to feel like winter around these parts for awhile after today. Time to unbox those sweaters!

Also, after today, there should not be much rain to speak of for the next 7 to 10 days.