Some active weather is likely to continue over the next 24 hours, so we’ll get right into that before talking about a mostly nice weekend to follow.

Early morning Friday

Radar as of 5:40 this morning, shows minimal amounts of showers around Houston. There’s some rain well to the north of Conroe that is falling apart.

Scattered showers and storms were pressing east of Austin, more toward the Brazos Valley. Heavier rain and storms (non-severe) in San Antonio were sliding east toward Victoria and places west of Houston. Over the next few hours, these showers will gradually migrate toward Houston, but for the most part, our early morning looks fairly quiet.

Friday late morning & afternoon

Weather modeling has been some kind of inconsistent over the last couple days in terms of what and where with rainfall. So to some degree, this leaves us flying partially blind today. We can tell you a couple things with confidence: First, there will be plenty of moisture available for storms today. This is probably the most we’ve seen all week, so it should mean coverage of storms today will be at their highest of the week for Houston. Second, we need a trigger, and with numerous boundaries in the area and more coming from the San Antonio area, that should be enough to get showers and storms going later this morning and this afternoon.

What we cannot tell you with much specificity, and what is naturally most frustrating to us (and you I’m sure) is exactly where and when the heaviest rains will occur. The image above is a sample from two short-range, high resolution models we look at each day. They are valid for the same time: 1 PM this afternoon. The HRRR (at left) shows an organized heavy cluster of storms. The NAM (right) shows scattered showers. I am leaning toward the HRRR idea right now, but basically at this point, the best advice we can give you is to bring an umbrella and be ready to potentially deal with some storms and heavy rain from late morning into this evening.

In terms of severe weather, it is possible we see some strong winds or hail, but the biggest concern with these storms will be heavy rain and localized street flooding. Any storms could produce rain rates of 1-2″ per hour or more which, if over one place, could lead to some street flooding.

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Houston faces a couple of wetter, and potentially stormy days before our weather clears out sometime on Saturday, and brings us what looks like a fairly nice May weekend. But first we’ve got to get through a round of storms this morning, for the northern half of the region, and then a stormy period on Friday night. We’re not anticipating anything too severe, but we could see some at-times strong thunderstorms.

Thursday

As of 6:15am CT, the northern part of Houston is seeing the remnant line of showers and thunderstorms from a large storm system that moved through North Texas on Wednesday night. This line is slowly weakening as it moves to the south-southeast this morning, but some part of it will likely push through The Woodlands and down at least into central Houston. Closer to the coast, a capping inversion will likely prevent widespread showers and thunderstorms. After this system works through this morning, we can expect a partly sunny day with highs in the mid-to upper-80s.

Friday through Saturday morning

We’ll see another wetter period on Friday through Saturday morning for the region. Most of the action should remain to the west and north of the Houston metro area through the daytime hours on Friday, but sometime that evening we should see a mass of storms move through the area roughly from west to east. This system is part of a weak cold front and an upper level disturbance. Timing is still hazy, but generally we’d expect the worst weather overnight for most of Houston, and probably lingering into Saturday morning for the coast and eastern parts of the region. Most modeling shows the system clearing the area by or before noon on Saturday, but we’re offering no guarantees. Generally, the area will probably see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, but there may be higher localized totals, and we can’t rule out some hail and damaging winds.

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Good morning. Houston will remain in a muggy, partly cloudy, and somewhat rainy period through Saturday, but we have no major concerns. However, the same cannot be said today for northern Texas, particularly the I-20 corridor from Abilene through Dallas and Fort Worth. Severe storms could affect the Metroplex during the afternoon, and evening hours, with the distinct threat of large hail, heavy rainfall, and potentially tornadoes. Please take care if you’re traveling that way today or tonight.

Wednesday and Thursday

Back in Houston, conditions will be much more sedate. We’re going to continue under a pattern of a warmer southerly flow, with breezy winds from the Gulf bringing moisture into the area. Both Wednesday and Thursday should see some sunshine, which will allow highs to nudge up into the upper-80s for most areas, likely.

The bigger question is rainfall, and I think we’re going to see some light to moderate rain showers over the northern half of the area (think north of I-10), while southern areas remain pretty much dry. Overall inland parts of the region could see as much as one-half inch of rain through Thursday, but it should be nothing to write home about in terms of impacts. Nights will remain steamy, in the low 70s.

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As Houston continues to slide toward summer, we’re looking at a period of partly or mostly cloudy skies, on-and-off rainy, humid, and fairly warm weather during the next week or so. Nights will remain warm and muggy for the foreseeable future, with much of the region never falling below the 70s throughout the forecast period.

Tuesday

We may see a few brief, very scattered, light rain showers today—but for the most part skies will simply be cloudy. Despite the lack of sunshine, highs will generally get into the mid- to upper-80s on Tuesday, with temperatures a bit cooler near the coast due to the moderating influence of the Gulf waters. Southerly winds will be noticeable, gusting to perhaps 25 mph. Lows tonight will be in the 70s for all but very far inland areas.

Wednesday and Thursday

These should be a pair of partly to mostly cloudy days. A cold front is going to be moving through north Texas, but it’s going to stall before reaching the Houston area, and therefore any severe weather should remain to the northwest of the region (see the map from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center above). As a result, Houston and its surrounding counties will see only a 30 or 40 percent chance of rain each day, with perhaps a few tenths of an inch of rain in terms of accumulation. Highs will remain in the mid- to upper-80s.

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