The tale of this Texas winter has yet to be fully told—for the purposes of this site, we’ll define winter as December through February, which is known as meteorological winter. But for the entirety of Texas temperatures have been warmer than normal, with much of the Houston metro area 4 to 6 Fahrenheit degrees above normal. NOAA’s climate outlook calls for about near-normal temperatures in February for the region. The bottom line: If you’ve thought this winter lacked oomph, you’re right. At this point the chance of another freeze in central Houston is probably less than 50-50, but we’re far from being able to say that definitively.

Thursday

Today will buck the trend of a warmer winter, as clouds and a northwest wind will conspire to keep highs generally in the mid- to upper 50s across the region. Some mostly (very) light and scattered rain showers will be possible today and Thursday night as temperatures drop into the upper 40s. Accumulations for those who receive rain today and tonight should be slight, mostly measuring one-tenth of an inch or less.

Friday

A reinforcing front arrives on Friday morning, which should keep highs in the 50s, and help lead to some clearing of skies during the afternoon hours. Friday night will be chilly, dropping into the upper 30s for northern parts of the metro area, while remaining in the 40s in the city and points south.

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It’s a breezy, chilly morning, with temperatures in the 40s and winds gusting above 20mph across most of Houston. We’re really not going to see temperatures much above 60 degrees until the weekend, when conditions look rather pleasant

Wednesday

We had been hoping to see some sunshine today, but there’s enough moisture above the surface to generate some clouds this morning. As a result, we’re likely to see partly to mostly cloudy skies throughout the day. Add to that steady northwesterly winds in the 10-15 mph range, with stronger gusts, and we’ve the makings of a cool day. Highs will probably top out in the upper 50s to 60 degrees. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the 40s under mostly cloudy skies.

Thursday

We may see a little more sunshine on Thursday morning, but pretty quickly the high pressure in the wake of Tuesday evening’s front is going to move off to the east. This will open the region up to a couple of atmospheric disturbances. Highs Thursday should reach about 60 degrees again, with very slight rain chances during the afternoon hours. Chances increase during the overnight hours into Friday morning as a cold front approaches, but the models are keeping the the heavier rain showers offshore. As a result, I’d expect pretty much all of the Houston area to receive a tenth or two of an inch of rain—if that.

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On Monday the state climatologist, John Nielsen-Gammon, called my attention to the visible satellite image page for the upper Texas coast. I’ve attached a snippet below, showing the period roughly from 8am to 1pm on Monday. If you look just northwest of Galveston Bay you can see the cooling stack plumes show up from some of the largest refineries in the Ship Channel. These facilities are leaving bow wakes in the low-stratus cloud layer.

So what is causing this? The cause is weather-related, John speculates it is likely a combination of the following factors:

• A well-defined temperature inversion at the top of the low cloud deck.
• Weak stability and strong wind shear above the inversion that would enable waves to be trapped horizontally on the inversion rather than propagating upward and away.
• A sufficiently shallow stratus layer that a bit of downward motion would be enough to temporarily clear out the clouds.
• A sufficiently large volume of heated air rising from the plants to produce strong enough wakes to be seen.

In any case, the weather on the Texas coast is rarely dull! Now, on to the forecast.

Tuesday

A diffuse mass of mostly light to moderate rain showers will move slowly from west to east across the Houston area today. The showers, with possibly a few embedded, stronger thunderstorms, will probably persist through most of the daytime hours. Most parts of the region should see between 0.25 and 0.5 inches of rain throughout the day. The combination of clouds and rain will likely limit daytime highs to the upper 60s for most of the region. After sunset, a cold front will sweep through Houston to help dry the region out. Conditions tonight will be breezy and colder, dropping into the 40s.

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Good morning. Some areas of dense fog have developed north and west of Houston this morning, but it should burn off entirely within a few hours of sunrise. For this week the region will fall into a pattern of a day of rain chances, followed by one to two sunny days, and then more clouds and rain. Fortunately, right now, it appears as though sunshine will align with Saturday and Sunday. This will probably make for a fine weekend.

Monday

Low temperatures this morning in the upper 50s should rise to around 70 degrees this afternoon under mostly sunny skies. With calm winds slowly turning to the southwest this afternoon, it’s going to be a gorgeous day for whatever you need to do outside. Lows tonight will generally fall into the mid-50s again tonight with the likely redevelopment of some fog for the southern half of the Houston region.

Tuesday

This will be a gray day. Likely beginning some time during the mid-morning hours, light to moderate rainfall will begin to spread over most of the Houston area. A slightly more organized band of showers may work its way through during the afternoon or evening hours, but for the most part we expect accumulations on the order of a few tenths of an inch of rain. A cold front will sweep through during the evening, likely between 6pm and 10pm, bringing stronger winds (likely gusting above 20mph) and drier air. Skies should clear out Tuesday night, with lows dropping into the 40s.

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