It often feels like the spring and fall seasons don’t last very long in Houston, sandwiched between a long summer and a somewhat shorter winter. This week, therefore, will offer something of a rarity—a long stretch of nearly perfect spring weather in Houston. The only shame is that most kids had spring break last week, rather than during this week’s idyllic conditions.
Monday
Some sunshine broke through on Sunday, but it was still a mostly cloudy day, and we expect similar conditions today due to a more southerly flow higher in the atmosphere, which is bringing some mid- and high-level clouds in the atmosphere. After a cool start in the upper 40s this morning, highs this afternoon should reach near 70 degrees. The city of Deer Park has lifted its Shelter-in-Place restrictions this morning, but Deep Park Independent School District campuses will be closed.
Lows Monday night across Texas. (Pivotal Weather)
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
There’s not much to say about the mid-week weather as high pressure dominates. We should generally see nighttime temperatures in the low 50s for Houston, a bit cooler inland and a bit warmer near the coast. Daytime highs will be in the low 70s. And yes, skies should be mostly sunny, with fairly dry air. Oh my.
We will get to the forecast in just a second. First, we’ve received a number of questions, asking about the recent “bomb cyclone” and what the heck it means. If you’re an NPR listener, you may catch me discussing exactly that today on Texas Standard.
What is it? A “bomb cyclone” by definition is an area of low pressure (or an “extratropical cyclone”) whose minimum central pressure drops by an average of 1 mb per hour for 24 hours. In other words, it has to drop at least 24 mb over the course of a day or less.
Was this recent storm actually a “bomb cyclone?” Yes. Here are the official surface analysis maps every three hours between 10 PM CT on Wednesday (0300Z) and 1 PM CT on Thursday (1800Z).
Official NWS surface maps from 10 PM Tuesday through 1 PM Wednesday show the storm in the Rockies deepening from about 995 mb to 968 mb, qualifying it as a meteorological “bomb,” or “bomb cyclone.” (National Weather Service)
The storm went from about 995 mb at 10 PM on Tuesday to 968 mb at 1 PM on Wednesday. That’s a 27 mb drop over 15 hours, which allowed this storm to meet the technical definition of a bomb cyclone.
Is bomb cyclone just some fancy new term the media made up to hype weather? Not at all. The term has informally been around since at least the 1940s in Norway (where a lot of modern meteorology has its roots). The technical definition came from a 1980 journal article by MIT meteorology professor Fred Sanders.
Lowest observed SLP in S.E. Colorado occurred in Lamar and was measured at 970.4, Altimeter 28.73 #cowxpic.twitter.com/I0cpjLgaH5
So why are we only hearing about it recently? Are these becoming more common? If you catch me on “Texas Standard” today, you’ll hear me say that I believe social media has taken what used to be conversations that only occurred between scientists or super hardcore weather geeks and thrust them into the public square. In other words, instead of these conversations with cool terms like “bomb” or “polar vortex” or “derecho” only occurring in sciencey circles, they’re now occurring in forums where journalists or the public can eavesdrop. I don’t know that these types of storms are necessarily more common in 2019, though that may change in the future. It’s mostly that these terms just accidentally end up out in the wild for everyone to use, rather than only among a select few.
I hope you found this informative! Let’s move on to our forecast.
Today
In the wake of yesterday’s front, look for a mix of clouds and some sunshine early today, though those clouds should thicken up as the day progresses, especially south of I-10. It will be cooler and breezy today, with temperatures likely peaking around 60 degrees or so this afternoon. Some locations will likely struggle to get out of the upper-50s with enough clouds.
Rodeo weather
A light jacket will be a good accessory tonight, as temperatures will drop back into the middle or upper-50s this evening before the show. Heading home, you’ll see temperatures down into the low- to mid-50s under mostly cloudy skies. A few sprinkles or some drizzle can’t be entirely ruled out.
Weekend
It won’t be beautiful, but at least a fairly quiet weekend is expected. On Saturday we should see plentiful clouds unfortunately, meaning it will be rather cool. We also can’t entirely rule out some showers or a period of light rain, especially along the coast and south of Houston on Saturday. Sunday’s rain chances should shift even further south toward Matagorda Bay, mostly. I don’t really think rain this weekend will be a big issue if you have outdoor plans, but it’s just something to know may happen.
A cold front is moving through Houston this morning, heralded by a thin line of showers and thunderstorms sweeping down from northwest to southeast. This front should usher in a period of sunnier, drier weather for awhile, with pleasantly warm days and nights. In fact, the next week or so looks exceptional for those who like spring and fall conditions in Houston.
Low temperatures Friday morning will be quite a bit cooler. (Pivotal Weather)
Thursday
The front will push through Houston this morning, with showers ending quickly, and in its wake we’ll see drier and eventually cooler air move in behind. Highs today will be in the mid-70s, with clearing skies this afternoon and rather pleasant conditions. Lows tonight will fall down to around 50 degrees—cooler inland and warmer near the coast.
Rodeo weather
If you’re heading to the rodeo … prepare for nice weather! Pre-show temperatures will be around 70 degrees, with clear skies and low humidity this evening. Walking out of the concert, expect temperatures to have falling into the low 60s. Winds are going to pick up tonight out of the north tonight, but stronger gusts in the 20s probably won’t arrive until midnight or later.
Friday
Significantly cooler and drier air begins to arrive during the overnight hours, and as a result we can expect at least the first half of Friday to be fairly breezy, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs only around 60 degrees. Lows Friday night will fall into the upper 40s for most of Houston.
Temperatures have run 10 to 15 degrees above normal this week for the Houston area, and we’ll experience one more warm day before we cool back down to more spring-like weather for awhile. The good news is that, after a long string of cloudy weather, we’ll also see a nice stretch of sunshine.
The regional Texas Tech-WRF model shows a broken line of showers approaching Houston at 2pm CT Wednesday. (TTU.edu)
Wednesday
Houston may see some effects from a powerful upper-level low pressure system that is barreling across the plains states today. Fortunately for us, we’re on the southern periphery of this system, which means that we’re likely to see only a broken line of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms move through the area, likely between about noon and 3pm this afternoon. Any storms should not last long as the system moves from west to east. We can’t rule out some briefly strong winds or hail, which will be slightly more likely for areas north of Houston than to the south of the city. Highs today should be in the mid-70s.
Rodeo weather
Rain chances should end by the early evening, meaning that our weather should be dry heading into the show. There might even be some clearing skies for a bit, with temperatures in the 70s. Relative humidity will be high, with some southerly winds at about 15mph, so it will still be one of those hair days. Temperatures won’t have dropped much after the concert.
Thursday
A cold front finally drags into Houston on Thursday, likely before noon. It is possible that we’ll see some brief showers with the front, but they should end fairly quickly. Drier air will follow fairly soon, allowing for clearing skies during the afternoon hours, and mostly sunny skies. Is anyone ready to actually see a sunset?
