Thunderstorms popped up along the coast early this morning, and now some of the heavier rains have migrated inland. These pre-sunrise storms reflect what is likely to be a messy forecast for the next several days as a weak cold front pushes into the area, just beyond Houston offshore, and then likely moves backward through Houston. Add it all up, and there will be a healthy chance of storms over the next several days—along with a brief interregnum of drier and cooler air. Hopefully.

Wednesday

This morning’s storms are likely a precursor for showers and thunderstorms moving along a front that, near sunrise, is approaching the Interstate 35 corridor in central Texas. This should lead to elevated rain chances this afternoon and evening across most of the metro area, with storms moving from northwest to southeast. In terms of accumulation, most areas will probably see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall between Wednesday and Thursday morning, which could cause some brief problems on roadways but should for the most part be manageable.

Thursday

Some drier air should work its way into Houston behind the front, especially for areas well to the west and north of downtown Houston. Lows in the 60s are possible for these areas, but unlikely within Harris County or the city of Houston itself.

Any reprieve won’t last long, however, as the front should lift back onshore Thursday, likely leading to elevated rain chances during the afternoon or evening hours. (We do not expect these storms to be as heavy as those on Wednesday). Daytime highs on Thursday should be in the low- to mid-80s, and we sincerely hope everyone enjoys their 12 hours of almost fall-like weather. Not that we’re bitter about the lack of a strong fall cold front, or anything.

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All things considered, after a long, hot, and wet summer, Monday was pretty nice. We had ample sunshine, highs in the upper 80s, and some drier weather. It offered an all-too-brief taste of what is eventually coming—fall, which may arrive toward the end of the first week of October. But now it’s over and we’re headed back into a wet and humid period for awhile. We’re not too concerned about the potential for flooding this week, but the dreary quotient for the next several days will be pretty high.

Tuesday

As Gulf moisture resumes flowing into the region today, rain showers will also spread over the area. I’d peg rain chances at about 50 percent today, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s. Fairly quick movements of storms should limit any concerns about heavy rainfall lasting too long.

Wednesday and Thursday

The midweek is … interesting. As a cold front approaches the area from the northwest, rain will probably spread throughout much of the region on Wednesday. It’s not clear whether the front itself will reach into Houston, or stall just before or after pushing into the region. If you’re lucky (and if you’re on the west side of the city), you may see a day or so of drier weather on Thursday. But it’s not something I’d count on.

Basically, we can expect rainfall ahead of and along the front, and some brief drying after the front if it pushes through where you live. However, even if it does, the front will probably pull back (westward) across the region on Friday. Highs in the mid- to upper-80s.

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A weak, dying cold front pushed through the Houston area on Saturday night—if you were awoken by storms, that was it—and this will set the stage for a couple of drier days. Initially, we expected this front to stall out near or over Houston, leading to more wet weather, but as it has pushed far enough east most areas should see a bit of a reprieve for a few days from the rain.

Temperature wise it won’t make too much of a difference, with highs still near around 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday with partly sunny skies, but mornings and evenings should feel a bit more pleasant until the front slides back tomorrow some time.

After this we’ll fall back into a wet pattern beginning later on Tuesday or Wednesday as another front nears the area. Again, we expect this one to stall before or near Houston, leaving us in a muggy, wet pattern. But if we get lucky again, perhaps that front will push through Houston as well, making for nicer weather next weekend. I certainly wouldn’t bet on it at this point, so for now just enjoy what should be a pretty nice Sunday.