Houston continues to face the prospect of a wet Labor Day Weekend—but we’re not concerned about anything more than the potential for some street flooding and spoiled outdoor barbecues with intermittent showers and thunderstorms.
However, we did want to update you on the potential for tropical mischief in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Some forecast models have become a little more bullish on low pressure forming in the northern Gulf next week, which could lead to development of a tropical storm. As of Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center predicts a 40 percent chance that a tropical depression or storm will form during the next five days.
There are a lot of uncertainties with this system, and forecast models are having a difficult time resolving them. Of course, everyone will want to know where this will go. However, that’s simply impossible to say without a reasonably well defined low pressure system, and that probably won’t exist for a couple of days.
Thursday saw another mixed bag of weather, with some folks seeing heavy rainfall and others seeing not much of anything. We should replay that program today before better odds of rain and storms return this weekend.
Today
Expect at least a handful of showers and thunderstorms today. Not everyone will get rain, but those that do could see some heavier downpours. In terms of coverage, it will probably be similar to or less than what we saw yesterday, with the best chances the closer you get to the coast. Today probably carries the lowest rain chances of the next several days.
Temperatures will range from the upper-80s where you see showers to the low-90s further inland with drier weather more likely.
Holiday weekend
We’ll see another disturbance about 20,000 feet up migrate toward us this weekend. What does that mean? It means gradually increasing rain and storm chances again. Saturday shouldn’t be a washout, but there will be a few more showers and storms than we saw yesterday and will see today. Sunday may be when the more widespread showers and storms impact us. Some of the rain on Sunday could be locally heavy. Additional widely scattered showers and storms will remain with us for Labor Day.
Rainfall through Sunday evening should average close to a half-inch, with higher amounts likely in spots, especially south and east of Houston. (NWS)
Best course of action this weekend? Have a rain plan ready to implement if you’ve got any outdoor activities. In some cases, you won’t need to use it, but given the erratic nature of rainfall in these setups, it would be good to have a plan to turn to. We don’t expect any serious flooding this weekend, but as is almost always the case in Southeast Texas storm setups, locally heavy rainfall could lead to brief, localized street flooding in areas of poor drainage.
Also worth noting, the tropical thunderstorms this weekend could be capable of producing funnel clouds or brief waterspouts, especially in the morning near the coast. Just something to keep in mind if you’ll be at the beach this weekend.
Expect temperatures in the upper-80s most days, with low 90s inland if rainfall doesn’t materialize quite as much as anticipated.
Some parts of the greater Houston region received heavy showers on Wednesday, with several readers reporting upwards of 3 inches of rainfall in an hour. Other areas within the metro area saw no rain at all, just distant lightning. Rain coverage should back off a little bit today and Friday before more widespread showers likely return this weekend. As moisture moves into the Gulf, this pattern should continue.
Rainfall accumulations on Wednesday in Houston. (Harris County Flood Warning Service)
Thursday and Friday
Some slightly drier air has moved into the atmosphere, and this may help dampen—oops, wrong word there, I should probably say reduce—shower chances for the next two days. That is not to say it won’t rain, but rather that instead of 50 to 60 percent rain chances, it probably will be more like 30 to 40 percent, with the lower likelihoods inland, and slightly better chances near the coast. Highs will depend on local conditions, but will probably range from 90 to 95 degrees.
Saturday
By Saturday, the pattern will begin to shift toward wetter weather again, a the upper air pattern again favors the movement of more moisture into the Texas coast. Saturday doesn’t appear to be too waterlogged at this point, and it should be at least partly sunny. However, especially during the afternoon hours, there probably will be a healthy amount of showers and thunderstorms popping up across the Houston area. Highs in the low 90s.
Houston remains in a wetter, slightly cooler pattern that will see up-and-down rain chances through the Labor Day weekend. As we near the heart of hurricane season we’re continuing to expect activity to ramp up in the tropics, including possibly the Gulf of Mexico, but see no specific threats at this time. We’ll discuss that a bit more below.
Wednesday
Lower pressure draped over the region today, combined with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, should induce some pretty healthy rain chances for Houston (probably around 50 percent), especially during the afternoon hours. Because of some unstable air, where thunderstorms form, they could become severe, bringing the threat of strong wind gusts and lots of lightning. Some slow moving thunderstorms could quickly dump and inch of rain, or so. Highs will depend upon localized conditions, and should vary from the upper-80s to mid-90s.
For late August, these are not bad high temperatures for Wednesday in Texas. (Pivotal Weather)
Thursday and Friday
Rain chances fall back a bit, especially for inland areas. I still think coastal counties and the southern half of Harris County will see 40 or 50 percent rain chances, but they will be lower for other areas. Partly sunny skies should allow high temperatures for most areas to push into the mid-90s.
