Good morning. Conditions are almost summer-like this morning, with lows coming down only into the low-70s for much of the region, with dewpoints not far behind. Southerly winds, too, are pumping moisture inland to set up the potential for storms late tonight and Thursday morning, and we’ve got full details below. Easter weekend also continues too look good, weather-wise.

Wednesday

Today will be a mostly cloudy affair, with highs perhaps getting up to around 80 degrees for most of the region with lots of humidity. Houston should see some scattered showers later this afternoon, but they’re likely to be of the light-to-moderate variety as the atmosphere won’t be ready to break open just yet. South and southeast winds will blow all day, gusting at times to around 20 mph.

Wednesday night and Thursday

A line of severe weather will develop before midnight to the west of the Interstate 35 corridor, and progress eastward across the state on Thursday morning. For areas west of Houston (and Katy) and north of Houston (and The Woodlands) chances are that some of these storms will hold together to present a threat of heavy rainfall, and perhaps some hail. But a fairly strong capping inversion should hold over the metro region itself, and the effect should be a breaking of the line of thunderstorms as it near the Houston region around sunrise. Here’s how the NAM forecast model depicts the “line” of storms at 8am Thursday.

The bottom line is that conditions will be fine today and likely this evening for the Houston region, with just some scattered showers. The bigger concern will come around sunrise on Thursday, in the midst of rush hour, with the potential for strong thunderstorms. For now we think Houston will see some downpours at that time, but nothing too severe that lasts too long. Accumulations close to 0.5 inch are likely near the coast, with perhaps 1.5 inches of rain for inland areas like The Woodlands. We’ll have a comprehensive post up by 6:30am CT Thursday with the latest.

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Good morning. We’ll have one more mild day before a potentially stormy Wednesday and Wednesday night, which will herald the arrival of a cold front. This front will then usher in a very fine spring weekend for Houston, with mostly sunny skies extending through the Easter holiday.

Tuesday

Temperatures have fallen to near 60 degrees this morning, but we’ll warm up pretty quickly under partly sunny skies. Highs today will reach about 80, and perhaps a bit higher where sunshine is more consistent into the afternoon hours. The other feature of note will be strong southerly winds, which could gust above 20mph. Conditions Tuesday night will be warm and muggy, with temperatures unlikely to fall below 70 degrees for most of the region, and cloudy skies.

Wednesday through Thursday morning

A storm system will move across the state of Texas on Wednesday, and Wednesday night, and Houston will lie along the southern periphery of the main action. We’re in the middle of spring storm season, and this front may deliver a combination of heavy rainfall, hail, and possibly even damaging winds. However, the dynamics for these heavy rains are more favorable for central Texas than closer to the coast, and that’s reflected in NOAA’s storm outlook:

The bottom line is that we’ll see a chance of showers on Wednesday, with the best rain chances after midnight Wednesday, and early on Thursday morning. Rain accumulations for Houston likely will be somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 inches, with the higher-end totals more likely for areas north of Interstate 10.

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After Saturday’s storms, and then the blustery cold front, Houston will see a lot of sunshine. Then we’ll see another front Thursday, which should hopefully set us up for a mostly sunny holiday weekend. We can be pretty confident in this point in a rain-free Easter, at least as confident as one can be six days out.

Monday

Today should be a rather pleasant day for the region, with sunny skies, and highs around 80 degrees. South winds will pick up a bit today, so the drier air we saw this weekend will give way to rising humidity. Lows tonight will be down around 60 degrees—warmer along the coast and a bit cooler inland. One concern: Today is an ozone action day for Houston, when high levels of ozone pollution are possible.

Tuesday

As southerly winds return, we’ll see an increase in clouds on Tuesday, although the sunshine won’t go away entirely. Southerly winds will be noticeable, likely picking up to 15 to 20mph, and this increasing moisture will set the stage for some rain showers later in the week. Highs Tuesday will depend upon the extent of sunshine over your location, but probably will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Lows Tuesday night, as clouds build and with the influx of warmer air, are unlikely to fall much below 70.

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We’ve arrived at the doorstep of another weekend, which naturally means another chance of rain and storms. Let’s discuss how things should unfold.

Today

First, we’ll end the week on a mostly quiet note. Look for a good deal of clouds today. A few showers were seen on radar this morning down toward Matagorda Bay. Models aren’t especially bullish on rain chances today, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see some passing showers or even a thunderstorm, especially along and southeast of US-59 today. Temperatures will range from near the upper-70s to perhaps 80 or so with any sunshine this afternoon.

Tonight

Clouds will thicken up further as onshore flow ramps up. As moisture increases over the area, I expect a good deal of showers to develop and lift from south to north across the region. A thunderstorm is also possible. Most of us should just see a little rain tonight and Saturday morning. At this point nothing significant is expected. Low temperatures will be quite warm tonight and Saturday morning, barely dropping below 70°, if at all.

Saturday

Like last weekend, I am going to set you up with a user’s guide Q&A to this weekend’s storm.

When is it going to rain on Saturday? Overnight showers may try to diminish on Saturday morning. But any break should be relatively brief New showers and some thunderstorms will form in the later morning, especially on a line from Victoria to Sealy to Conroe to Lake Livingston. The best concentration of storms will be north of I-10 and probably along or north of Highway 105. This would basically be Conroe, Huntsville, Lake Livingston, Madisonville, etc. That’s also where the best chance for severe weather will be in our area. The really nasty stuff will be way off to our north, up toward Lufkin and Shreveport, LA. More on severe weather in a second.

You’ve mentioned severe weather. What do I need to worry about this weekend? The Storm Prediction Center has adjusted their outlook again today.

Most of the Houston area is in a “slight” risk for severe weather. That increases dramatically to enhanced and then moderate as you head toward Lufkin and Shreveport. As mentioned above gusty winds and hail will be the main severe weather concerns this weekend around Houston. At this point, it would appear that Saturday’s storms will not be of the same coverage or intensity as last weekend’s severe storms were in the Houston area. Still, we’ll keep tabs on things to make sure that doesn’t change. As far as tornadoes go, they are unlikely in and around Houston.

So what about the Houston area? What should we expect? While the heaviest storms and rain will lift off to the north of Houston, I do expect at least a line of at least broken storms to develop Saturday afternoon.I would probably expect that line of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, most likely between 2 and 6 PM from west to east across the Houston area. I don’t expect it will rain that entire time, but look for a short period of some heavy rain and thunder as that passes through. To reiterate, if storms become severe, the main threats will be strong winds and hail. The most likely portions of the area to see this will be to the north and east of Central Houston. Again, this shouldn’t be like last weekend, but we will keep watch.

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