After a stunning Sunday, the sunshine is mostly going to disappear for some time, and Houston faces a significantly wetter period in which we may have some flooding concerns. There is, frankly, not much confidence in any of the forecast models at this point, but all point to a period of on-and-off heavy rainfall due to a moist atmosphere and meandering fronts.

The bottom line is that the region could see from 4 to 10 inches of rain—roughly speaking—over the next seven days, but it’s hard to pin down the best days and locations for accumulations at this time. On a day-to-day basis we may have concerns about street flooding. We also have concerns about the Trinity (which already will near major flood stage Wednesday near Liberty) and Brazos (already forecast to reach a minor flood stage Friday morning at Richmond) rivers, as these rains could add multiple inches of rains to those basis. Then, as the week wears on, our grounds may become increasingly saturated and vulnerable to heavy rainfall events that move past street flooding and into yards. Overall, this will be a week to pay attention to forecasts, and we’ll do our best to stay on top of what appears to be a dynamic situation. Please clap—I resisted saying it was a fluid situation.
Monday
We can have the most confidence in our weather for Monday. We’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds today, and the additional sky cover should help to limit temperatures in the mid-80s. This is probably the last day, for a week or so, that we can definitively say it will not rain. Also, after drier air filtered into the region this weekend, an onshore flow today will begin to pump moisture back into Houston, setting the stage for wetter days ahead. Lows Monday night will fall into the lower 70s for most.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, a disturbance in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will bring a healthy chance of rainfall into the region, with most of the rains likely falling during the daytime hours. Rain accumulations across Houston will probably range from 0.25 to 2.0 inches, although some areas will undoubtedly see less, and some more. Our biggest concern is that some areas will see heavy rainfall during this time as the overall dynamics do not favor severe storms, for the most part.