We’re coming to the end of June in Houston, and the city’s official temperature has peaked at 98 degrees so far. Although I don’t anticipate that the city’s temperatures will hit 100 degrees over the next week, as we get into July the overall probability of hitting the century mark will rise. With that in mind, here is some 100-degree day climatology for the city of Houston:

• Earliest 100-degree day: June 2, 2011
• Average first 100-degree day: July 24
• Average number of 100-degree days: 5

The absence of 100-degree days in June is probably a decent sign for the rest of the summer in terms of extreme heat, but alas there are few guarantees when it comes to weather.

Tuesday

Moisture levels are lower than Monday, so I expect few if any rain showers across the metro area today. Most probably, we will see hot and sunny conditions with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. If you picked today to skip work and head for the beach, you made a good choice weather-wise.

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Summer roared back to Houston this weekend, with highs in the mid-90s across much of the region with mostly sunny skies. We’ll have more of the same this week, albeit with some slight afternoon rain chances on some days and a few more clouds to break up the sunshine. We’re not quite into the dead of summer—that typically comes about five or six weeks from now.

Monday

A bit of a tricky forecast today, because there is the potential for some rainfall even though most people are probably just going to see some clouds. A key factor today will be a plume of moisture moving into the central and southern Texas coast, which will lead to some pretty decent chances along the Coastal Bend. For Houston, the question is how far east these elevated moisture levels will get, i.e. will it get all the way to Galveston Bay?

As as result, rain chances for the western half of the Houston region are probably in the 20 to 40 percent range, whereas there is a lower probability in the eastern half (i.e. to the east half of Interstate 45) probably closer to 10 to 20 percent. Temperatures will also depend upon cloud cover, but I’m pretty sure we can count on the mercury reaching into the low 90s, at least.

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One upside to this week’s rains has been temperatures, as Houston recorded five consecutive days with highs in the 80s in June for the first time since 2004. But that will change quickly, as sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s come roaring back to Houston with a blast of summertime heat.

If you enjoyed the reprieve from 90-degree temperatures, all I can offer you is this. The summer solstice occurred Thursday, marking the longest day of the year—14 hours, 3 minutes, 30 seconds. The Sun will now slowly begin sinking in the sky, presaging the coming of fall about three months from now. Temperatures lag behind the summer solstice because water retains heat longer than land, and initially days will shorten by only a few seconds. For example, the day length today is 14 hours, 3 minutes, 27 seconds. However, by the middle of August, the day will already be 1 hour shorter, even though we associate that with the dead of summer in Houston. So fall is coming … eventually.

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After very wet commute home on Wednesday evening, Houston had a chance to dry out during the overnight hours. However, we have to get through one more day of storms—probably not as widespread as Wednesday—before drier air helps bring down moisture levels and puts us into a more typical summertime pattern. And make no mistake, these 80-degree days will be long gone.

Thursday

Broken bands of precipitation persist along the Texas coast this morning, and these should remain on and off during the daytime hours although likely with less organization than we’ve seen. The system will shear out, and heavier precipitation will eventually move south into Mexico, and northeast into the central United States.

For the greater Houston region, this probably means another day of scattered to widespread showers, with accumulations of 0.5 to 1 inch of rain (likely greater closer to the coast), and a slight potential of some street flooding. Showers will be most likely this afternoon, and high temperatures should reach near 90 degrees.

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