We’re going to see a potentially dynamic day of weather on Thursday as a dying cold front approaches the metro area. Friday will be a transition day before high pressure clamps down on the region over the weekend and beyond.

As a weak cool front sags down toward the Houston area this morning, a broken line of moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms will move with it. As of 6:30am CT, this line stretches from Luling to Navasota to Huntsville, but it should gradually move the east-southeast, and into the Houston area.

Based upon high-resolution modeling, it appears as though the best rain chances will be north of Interstate 10 this morning, along the highway and through the central Houston area during the middle of the day, and closer to the coast later this afternoon and early evening. I think these showers will be pretty hit-or-miss, meaning that some areas will probably only get a smattering of rain while a neighborhood a few miles away gets lots of lightning and  1-, or 2-, or even in a few isolated cases perhaps as much as 3-inches of rainfall. Because some of these isolated cells may produce some heavier showers, we can’t rule out some street flooding throughout the day under the strongest storms. Rains should end by around 6 to 8pm for most of the area.

Cloud cover today should help limit high temperatures to the upper 80s or around 90 degrees.

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Over the last 10 days Houston experienced its first taste of multiple 90-degree days in succession, and the next step function will come when we move into the mid-90s. For Houston, highs in the mid-90s are proper hot, meaning these temperatures are characteristic of mid-summer in Houston. It can get hotter, certainly, but the mid-90s are the bread-and-butter of summertime in Houston. We’re likely to get our first taste of them this weekend, as high pressure settles over the area.

Wednesday

It’s breezy this morning, with fairly strong southerly winds that could gust above 20mph today as they bring moisture into the area. A few scattered, light showers may pop up later this morning, but skies should nonetheless clear out this afternoon, allowing high temperatures to push up to around 90 degrees. Lows tonight will fall into the mid-70s except for the coast, which will be warmer.

If you’re traveling to the Dallas-Fort Worth area today, a cold front will be moving through North Texas, and bringing potentially quite severe weather (with the usual threat of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes). This weather should remain north of the Houston area on Wednesday, but could move into the College Station area by around midnight or shortly thereafter.

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There’s a lyric in a Steve Earle song called The Rain Came Down that reminds me of Houston’s weather every time I hear it: “It’ll wash you away and there ain’t never enough.” Such was the case for Houston during the month of May, with heavy rainfall and significant flooding during the first two weeks of the month followed by almost nothing since then. The map below shows rain totals over the last two weeks for the greater Houston area.

The schism in May rainfall also represents the transition from spring storm season to summer, as high pressure more or less clamped down and temperatures shot up—seven of the last nine days have had high temperatures of 90 degrees or above. We may see a bit of a reprieve from high pressure this week, but as we get deeper into June we can expect more of it.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Conditions for the next couple of days won’t change much temperature-wise for Houston. We probably will see high temperatures of around 90 degrees, with a mix of partly sunny mornings, and mostly sunny afternoons. We can’t entirely rule out a few showers streaming in from the coast, but chances probably will only be 10 to 20 percent for both days.

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Yesterday ended up seeing a few more showers in the area than expected, with a couple locations picking up about a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. Otherwise, it was dry. This holiday weekend will continue to bring limited rain chances, lots of sun, and plenty of heat, as it should feel more like late June than late May. After today’s forecast, we discuss NOAA’s hurricane outlook, released on Thursday.

Friday through Monday

Each day this weekend should be similar: Daytimes will be partly to mostly sunny and nighttimes partly to mostly cloudy. While we won’t advertise rain, there could be a couple brief showers in the area, particularly Monday afternoon. You should comfortably go forward with outdoor plans this weekend though. As Eric has noted this week, just keep hydrated and take it easy in the heat.

Rip currents will also probably be an issue at times this week on the Gulf, so it’s a good idea to do a quick review of the swimming safety tips above and always swim near a lifeguard.

As far as temps go, we will have a “back to the 90s” weekend! Look for 90° each afternoon, give or take a couple degrees. Obviously, it will be cooler along the Gulf, but even there will see mid- or upper-80s. Mornings will begin in the low- to mid-70s in most spots. Those of you out on the water will see southeasterly winds around 15 mph, perhaps gusting to 20 mph at times, especially today and Monday.

Next week

Look for continued heat and humidity most of the week. Rain chances remain on the low side for now, but there are perhaps some signs of slightly elevated shower chances as early as Wednesday, as strong Southeast U.S. high pressure begins to break down. This will allow for disturbances to edge closer to Houston by later next week. We’ll see if that actually happens, but it’s what to watch for change.

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