Houston has had some hot days this week—with highs of 90 and 91 degrees—but we’ve been saved by some pleasant mornings and especially evenings when drier air has felt pretty good. I hate to be a Grinchy forecaster, but I’m afraid we’re going to have to take that away from you, too.

The “dewpoint” temperature offers a good indication of how dry the air feels. Specifically the greater the difference between the dewpoint and the actual temperature, the lower the humidity. In the graphic below I’ve plotted the temperature (blue) and dewpoint (red) for the last three nights at 8pm at Hobby Airport, and for the next three nights.

As you can see, we had a pretty nice delta on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights. As you can also see, that difference between the actual temperature and dewpoint is going to go away beginning this evening. Trust me, in the hour before and after sunset, you’ll feel it. And probably not in a good way.

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Precisely at 2:30pm on Monday it happened—Houston’s temperature reached 90 degrees at Bush Intercontinental. This is about the normal time of year for the mercury to reach 90 degrees for the first time, so we can’t really complain. (Oh, if you want to, I won’t stop you). And with lower dewpoints, the mornings and evenings will remain pleasant enough for May for the next few days. As we get closer to June, we’ll have to take these small victories where we can.

Tuesday and Wednesday

There is not a whole lot to say about the next couple of days, which will be a lot like Monday. Houston remains in a calm pattern, stuck between high pressure to the west, and a large low pressure system to the east. The upside is that this will prevent a strong onshore flow from resuming, and keep humidity levels a tad lower. High temperatures remain at around 90, with overnight lows in the mid-60s for areas well inland, upper 60s for Houston, and lower 70s along the coast. Skies will remain mostly sunny, and I’d expect to see great sunsets for most of the week.

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What constitutes summer in Houston? There is no single definition. The summer solstice runs from June 21 to Sept. 23. Meteorological summer encompasses the months of June, July, and August. Neither of these time frames really capture summer in Houston, however, as it gets hot long before June 21, and stays hot well into September.

Speaking for me personally, summer comes when daytime temperatures are in the 90s, and overnight lows correspondingly warm and muggy. I’m afraid we might just be there, folks. We’ll have several days this week in which high temperatures might hit 90 degrees, beginning as early as today. And from a historical perspective, Houston is right on schedule—the average date of the first 90-degree day at Bush Intercontinental Airport is May 7.

Monday and Tuesday

In the wake of Sunday’s weak cool front, Houston will experience lower humidity to start the week. This will allow daytime temperatures to jump up to around 90 degree highs, but also should allow overnight lows to slip just under 70 degrees for most of the city except for the coast. Skies should be mostly sunny. Not much to say other than that the middle of the day will be hot, with more pleasant conditions during the mornings and evenings.

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According to the latest US Drought Monitor, no drought has crept into the entirety of the Houston metro area, and only extreme southern Brazoria County is seeing “abnormally dry” conditions. And yet for large chunks of the Houston area, this has been a dry spring. Galveston, for example, has notched a rainfall deficit of about 6 inches just for this calendar year.

This is true for a lot of coastal parts of the region as well. And because our forecast looks quite dry after Saturday, there’s a lot riding on rainfall chances Friday and Saturday. Unfortunately, they’re not overwhelmingly great for the Houston area.

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