A few showers, plenty of heat, and dust for Houston

Eric noted yesterday that we haven’t hit 100° yet in Houston this year. Despite that, if the month ended yesterday, we would have one of the ten hottest Junes on record in Houston. Even without real extreme heat this June, it has been a mostly sustained hot month. We’ll close the book on June next week and have more numbers for you then. Meanwhile, let’s talk some slim rain chances, dust, and the chance of a pattern change next week.

Today through Friday

By no means are today, tomorrow, and Friday going to be considered really stormy days here in Houston, but they may represent our best chances for a smattering of showers or a few thunderstorms until next week. All three days should see at least a handful of showers on the radar from mid-morning through mid to late afternoon. Thursday has the better chance of the three days. But consider yourself lucky if you get a cooling downpour, as many folks will likely stay dry through this period. Expect high temperatures to peak in the lower to middle 90s both days. AM lows will likely hang in the mid- to upper-70s.

Weekend

Hot: That about sums up this weekend. Expect sunshine and heat, with storm chances about as close to zero as you can get this time of year. There’s always a chance a rogue downpour could pop up, but it will be decidedly hot and dry. Take care and drink plenty of water if you’ll be outdoors this weekend.

And just to add to the allure, it will be dusty and hazy. The leading edge of a Saharan dust plume from Africa will make it to Texas this weekend, giving the sky a milky, hazy, almost grimy appearance at times. It may also make for interesting sunrises or sunsets.

A dust plume from the Sahara Desert will complete its trip across the Atlantic Ocean in Texas this weekend. (NASA)

If you have any respiratory ailments, it may not be the worst idea to take it a little extra easy this weekend too. Expect the dust to perhaps be noticeable as early as Friday, but much more obvious on Saturday.

I’d expect mid-90s for highs both Saturday and Sunday, along with nighttime lows in the mid or upper-70s once more.

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No 100 degree days in Houston yet this year …

We’re coming to the end of June in Houston, and the city’s official temperature has peaked at 98 degrees so far. Although I don’t anticipate that the city’s temperatures will hit 100 degrees over the next week, as we get into July the overall probability of hitting the century mark will rise. With that in mind, here is some 100-degree day climatology for the city of Houston:

  • Earliest 100-degree day: June 2, 2011
  • Average first 100-degree day: July 24
  • Average number of 100-degree days: 5

The absence of 100-degree days in June is probably a decent sign for the rest of the summer in terms of extreme heat, but alas there are few guarantees when it comes to weather.

High temperatures Tuesday will be warm, especially with the humidity, but not extreme. (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday

Moisture levels are lower than Monday, so I expect few if any rain showers across the metro area today. Most probably, we will see hot and sunny conditions with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. If you picked today to skip work and head for the beach, you made a good choice weather-wise.

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A few showers possible today, mostly just hot this week in Houston

Summer roared back to Houston this weekend, with highs in the mid-90s across much of the region with mostly sunny skies. We’ll have more of the same this week, albeit with some slight afternoon rain chances on some days and a few more clouds to break up the sunshine. We’re not quite into the dead of summer—that typically comes about five or six weeks from now.

Monday

A bit of a tricky forecast today, because there is the potential for some rainfall even though most people are probably just going to see some clouds. A key factor today will be a plume of moisture moving into the central and southern Texas coast, which will lead to some pretty decent chances along the Coastal Bend. For Houston, the question is how far east these elevated moisture levels will get, i.e. will it get all the way to Galveston Bay?

Reddish areas show locations where higher moisture levels should move into Texas. (Weather Bell)

As as result, rain chances for the western half of the Houston region are probably in the 20 to 40 percent range, whereas there is a lower probability in the eastern half (i.e. to the east half of Interstate 45) probably closer to 10 to 20 percent. Temperatures will also depend upon cloud cover, but I’m pretty sure we can count on the mercury reaching into the low 90s, at least.

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And, just like that, summer’s back in Houston

One upside to this week’s rains has been temperatures, as Houston recorded five consecutive days with highs in the 80s in June for the first time since 2004. But that will change quickly, as sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s come roaring back to Houston with a blast of summertime heat.

Chart showing the length of day (light blue), twilight, and night in Houston throughout the year. (TimeAndDate.com)

If you enjoyed the reprieve from 90-degree temperatures, all I can offer you is this. The summer solstice occurred Thursday, marking the longest day of the year—14 hours, 3 minutes, 30 seconds. The Sun will now slowly begin sinking in the sky, presaging the coming of fall about three months from now. Temperatures lag behind the summer solstice because water retains heat longer than land, and initially days will shorten by only a few seconds. For example, the day length today is 14 hours, 3 minutes, 27 seconds. However, by the middle of August, the day will already be 1 hour shorter, even though we associate that with the dead of summer in Houston. So fall is coming … eventually.

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