After five dry days for most of the Houston region, we will now transition back into a wetter pattern for the next week or so as high pressure moves out of the area. After today, rain chances will likely be 50 percent or higher each day for the next week, although as of now there are no indications of any particularly widespread, heavy rainfall that will lead to significant flooding problems.

Thursday

Some showers will return today, particularly to the west and southwest of the Houston area. However, I expect most of the area to at least see some partly sunny skies, which will allow for high temperatures to get up about 90 degrees. We’ll probably see the most sunshine today that we’re going to see until at least Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Unfortunately, we can probably expect to see fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Again, we don’t anticipate a washout, but rain probably will never be too far away in terms of timing and distance, and some intermittently heavy rainfall is possible. Skies should be mostly cloudy, with high temperatures likely between 85 and 90 degrees.

Everyone will want to know how much rainfall is coming, and that is something that is really hard to predict. For example, during the first two weeks of this month the area received wildly variable rainfall amounts from 2 to 20 inches. With the showers and storms this weekend, we can probably generally expect 1 to 3 inches of rain, with some isolated higher totals in the 4 to 6 inch range. Where will these higher totals be? If I had to guess it would be west or southwest of Houston, but overall confidence is fairly low.

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We think next weekend at the end of the month probably looks fairly nice, if that front we mentioned in Tuesday’s post comes to pass. Unfortunately, this immediate weekend doesn’t look great. And by not great, we mean a healthy chance of rain showers with the possibility of locally heavy rainfall.

Houston has generally been dry since Saturday, with partly to mostly sunny skies this week for much of the area. This has been due to high pressure overhead, which has kept some of the Gulf of Mexico moisture at bay, and prevented it from rising into the atmosphere, condensing, forming clouds and—you guessed it—producing rain showers. After today, however, this high pressure will begin sliding to the east.

The net effect of this will be to increase moisture levels to above normals, essentially opening up an atmospheric river streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico into the Texas coast. This, combined with some anticipated disturbances in the upper-atmosphere, will once again allow for the development of rain showers.

We don’t have a signal for anything too extreme right now, but rainfall should be widespread enough, and perhaps intermittently heavy, to put a damper on outdoor activities during the Friday through Sunday period.

Wednesday

Before the rain chances increase, we’re going to see another warm and mostly sunny day. I don’t think we’ll quite reach the 97 degrees we saw on Tuesday, but a lot of the region probably will get into the mid-90s.

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It’s time. If we define the “first fall cold front” as a nighttime temperature of 65 degrees or below at Bush Intercontinental Airport, then the average date of Houston’s first front is today, September 18. Alas, we’re not going to make it this year, but there are some hints in the models of a front pushing through before the end of this month (more on that below). That would be a good thing, because based upon Houston’s weather history, we only get into October without a “first front” about once every 10 years. And no one wants that to happen, do they?

Tuesday

Expect a mostly sunny day today, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. This is kind of a classic summer day, and as there won’t be that many more of these this year, be sure and enjoy it if this is your thing.

Wednesday

A day like Tuesday, but with possibly a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Expect these to be fairly isolated, however.

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The city of Galveston started September with a 12-inch deficit in annual rainfall, and now, a little more than halfway into the month the city has a nearly 5-inch surplus. The last two weeks have been incredibly wet for the island, and the southern half of the Houston region as tropical moisture has surged into the area.

The image below, showing rainfall over the last 14 days, demonstrates how the coastal areas have been inundated, whereas some inland areas have received as little as 1-2 inches. While these rains—in excess of 20 inches for locations along the coast—have caused some flooding problems they have not been too widespread. This is because the region can handle 20 inches of rain over two weeks. It’s the 20 inches of rain in two days that causes major problems.

While we are not done with rainfall entirely, I think it is safe to say we are likely done with the threatening, heavy tropical rainfall for awhile. Good riddance.

Monday

A partly to mostly sunny day today, with only isolated to scattered showers later during the afternoon hours. The sunny skies and lack of precipitation should allow temperatures to nudge up into the mid-90s for most parts of the Houston region. Summer, alas, is not quite ready to loosen its grip.

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