We knew rain and scattered storms were returning to Houston, but frankly we didn’t think they’d come this soon. However, a relatively localized feature, a kink in the atmosphere, is moving up the Texas coast today and it’s driving the development of some storms primarily to the south and southeast of Houston. A few areas are seeing pea and dime-sized hail as a result.
Radar as of 3:20pm CT Monday. (kktv.com)
The regional models we use to predict the evolution of these kinds of storms haven’t done a great job of handling their development today, but generally I think they’re going to wane by or before sunset.
The overall forecast remains the same through mid-week, with widespread showers late Monday night and Tuesday producing perhaps 0.25 to 0.5 inch of rain, and more scattered showers on Wednesday. Some additional hail will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms on Tuesday.
After a stunning Sunday, we’ll now see the return of some clouds today, and as early as tonight some healthy rain chances. Most of this week looks pretty gray, although there’s a chance of sunshine toward the Friday or Saturday period. Unfortunately, the forecast from Thursday on is fairly uncertain at this point.
Monday
Skies remain somewhat clear this morning for parts of Houston, and we’ll see at least partly sunny skies for most of today, as highs warm into the mid-60s across Houston. However, change will be on the way as the high pressure system overhead moves away, and winds begin to return from the east and southeast. With this returning moisture, a few scattered showers will be possible near the coast this afternoon and early evening.
Rodeo forecast
Every weekday for the next three weeks, we’re going to offer Rodeo outlooks for people going to the concert. (Tonight, I’ll be among them, as Mrs. Space City Weather is a big Kasey Musgraves fan.) We’ll see temperatures of about 60 degrees at 6pm, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and 10mph easterly winds. We can’t entirely rule out rain chances, but they’re probably around 10 percent for central Houston. After the show, temperatures will still be in the upper 50s, but the chance of scattered showers will be better, probably closer to 30 percent. Any rain should be light.
Tuesday
This looks like a wet and gray day. Highs will get into the mid- to upper-60s, and the combination of warmer air, low pressure, and ample moisture should lead to on- and off-again (mostly) light to moderate rain showers. All told, accumulations for most should be well under one-half inch, but a some areas may see a bit more. We also can’t rule out a few pockets of hail. The healthy rain chances should persist into Tuesday night, when lows for most won’t fall below 60.
The good news is that the worst of the weather the next couple days will likely miss the Houston area well to the northeast. The bad news is that we will still have multiple rain chances to contend with through tomorrow before we get on to the good stuff.
Today
While today should not be a washout, there will be plenty of shower activity around. Initially, showers are west of Houston near Katy and north up through Conroe.
Radar this morning shows most shower activity from about Katy north through Tomball and into Conroe. (RadarScope)
As we go into this afternoon, I think we’ll see the focus of these showers shift east of I-45 and north of I-10. Thunderstorms will also be possible, but with the area likely to see some degree of atmospheric capping (“the cap,” as it’s often referred to, which is basically an atmospheric temperature inversion that inhibits thunderstorm growth) I don’t think we will see too much in the way of significant storms. That will be reserved for areas well north of Houston, up toward the ArkLaTex.
Yesterday was cold and drizzly. Today will begin similarly. We should see temps warm a bit further today though and manage at least the upper-60s in Houston, mid-60s in The Woodlands, and low-60s in the Brazos Valley. That being said, sometimes temperatures behave very stubbornly in these types of patterns, so there’s a definite slight chance we don’t get out of the 50s until later tonight. Keep the jacket handy.
For at least the 500th* time this month, fog is pestering the coast this morning once again. *approximate
Dense fog is an issue along the coast and in the bays, so give yourself extra time if you are traveling to or from those areas today. (NWS Houston)
Dense fog is likely to hang along the coast and in the bays most of the day today. Exercise caution if you’ll be driving to or from those areas today.
Tonight
We will carry a continued chance of showers through the night, but no heavy activity is expected. It may be more mist or drizzle than anything, with a gradual transition toward showers. Fog will continue in the bays and along the coast, though it could begin to become a little more dispersed at times overnight as winds pick up a bit. Look for temperatures to hold steady or finally rise into the mid- to upper-60s if they haven’t gotten there this afternoon.
As high pressure has scooted east of the area, low pressure has returned, and along with it plenty of moisture that will fall as rain the next few days. Rain chances will remain above 50 percent through Saturday, before a front arrives to bring us some much nicer weather—we still anticipate an outstanding second half of the weekend.
Thursday
Rains developed offshore late Wednesday, and have moved into coastal areas this morning. So far amounts have been more than manageable, with about one-quarter inch the maximum amount. But this surge of low-level moisture and low pressure will nonetheless make for a wet and gray day, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees. Most of the area likely will not see more than one-quarter to one-half inch of rain. With the southerly flow, temperatures Thursday night will not fall much as on-and-off mostly light to moderate showers continue.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for Thursday. (Pivotal Weather)
Friday
Friday will be warmer, with cloudy skies, and highs in the 70s. With more moisture moving in Friday, we can expect more come-and-go rain showers. Again, there should be no real concerns with accumulations, as this will be just another gray, wet, albeit warmer day in Houston. The greater rain accumulations—one inch or more—should occur well to the north and northeast of the region. Lows Friday night may not fall below 70 along the coast, and probably will only drop into the upper 60s for the city.
