There are several ways to define the beginning of winter—the onset of cold weather, Dec. 1, or the winter solstice. The latter is today, and because we’re only now publishing our winter forecast for Texas, for the purposes of this post we choose to define winter this year as the period from Dec. 21 through March 20, the spring equinox. Anyway, we’re expecting slightly cooler, and wetter conditions.

Temperatures

After a cold November—remember the early freeze and trace of snow?—conditions so far this December have been fairly standard for Houston. Temperatures have been near normal, and there’s yet to be a freeze. The next week or so should be fairly warm for this time of year, with highs generally in the low 70s, before a cooldown to end the year.

The dominant factor for our weather in January, February, and early March should be the arrival of El Niño, warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean that have effects downstream. Generally, this tends to make temperatures a bit cooler in Texas, and wetter, with a more active storm pattern over the southern United States. The official NOAA forecast, just released Thursday, shows near-normal temperatures for Texas for the January through March period.

This is probably accurate, although we expect to see a couple of rather strong fronts during the coming months, with the coldest period most likely coming during the first half of February. The bottom line is that although the last 10 days of December may be fairly warm, we do not expect this trend to continue through the winter.

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A thin, broken line of showers pushed through Houston this morning ahead of a cold front that is now moving through the region. Skies are already clearing on the west side of the region, and should clear out for all of Houston later this morning. We’ll now have a few sunny days before clouds return later Saturday or Saturday evening.

Thursday

The name of the game today will be winds. Because air pressure will change over a relatively short distance, we’ll see vigorous northwest winds today, and the National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory through 6pm. Conditions won’t be too extreme, but gusts of 30 to 35mph will definitely make for a blustery day as high temperatures struggle to get to 60 degrees. Lows tonight will be clear and cold for the city, although should remain comfortably above freezing.

Friday

Winds should dial back overnight, making for a pleasant day Friday. Look for sunny skies, with highs around 60 degrees. Temperatures Friday night should be a degree or two warmer than Thursday night, but conditions will still be clear and cool.

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As of 6:15am, a few showers are lingering near The Woodlands and College Station, but for the most part this system should be moving to the northeast, away from the Houston area. Some scattered showers are possible today, but for the most part this should be it for the rain through the weekend.

Wednesday

Today will be sort of a waiting game, as the showers clear the area, but a related cold front lags about 24 hours behind. Highs should get into the mid- to upper-60s this afternoon, and skies could become partly to even mostly sunny later. Lows for much of the night probably will stay in the mid-50s until the front arrives before sunrise on Thursday.

Thursday

The front will blow in with purpose—its passage will likely be dry—and we’ll pretty quickly notice the cooler air and blustery conditions. Despite sunny skies, highs on Thursday may not reach 60 degrees, and it will be quite chilly with winds gusting above 20 to 25mph. Pack a windbreaker on your way out the door. Thursday night will probably be the coldest of the week, with lows in the mid-40s in the city, colder up north, and warmer along the coast.

Friday

Another sunny day, with highs likely around 60 degrees. The absence of a bracing northerly wind will make it feel nicer, however. Overnight lows may be a degree or two warmer than Thursday night, so still chilly.

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