On this Christmas Eve morning, I want to take a moment to thank all the people who work in retail, at restaurants, deliver packages and perform other services during the long holiday hours. This is hard work, especially at this very hectic time. Thank you.

Monday

Our clear skies—that Moon has been something else the last few nights—will now give way to partly to mostly cloudy skies for most of this week. The culprit is the weak cold front that eased through Houston early on Sunday. After moving offshore it stalled, and it is now moving back onshore as  “warm” front. This will help set the stage for warmer, and more humid weather until later Thursday.

We should still see some sunshine today, and highs probably will get up into the mid- to upper-60s with easterly winds. But by this afternoon or evening, skies should turn mostly cloudy, and I only expect areas well away from the coast to fall below 60 degrees.

Christmas Day

The holiday will dawn warm and gray, with some fog possible as warm air moves over the ground. The day may be fairly dreary, with light, spotty showers possible and 99 to 100 percent cloud cover. Highs probably will get into the low 70s, despite the clouds, which is really quite warm for a December day without direct sunshine. Is there any good news? The only real good news is that stormy weather will hold off until at least Wednesday.

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There are several ways to define the beginning of winter—the onset of cold weather, Dec. 1, or the winter solstice. The latter is today, and because we’re only now publishing our winter forecast for Texas, for the purposes of this post we choose to define winter this year as the period from Dec. 21 through March 20, the spring equinox. Anyway, we’re expecting slightly cooler, and wetter conditions.

Temperatures

After a cold November—remember the early freeze and trace of snow?—conditions so far this December have been fairly standard for Houston. Temperatures have been near normal, and there’s yet to be a freeze. The next week or so should be fairly warm for this time of year, with highs generally in the low 70s, before a cooldown to end the year.

The dominant factor for our weather in January, February, and early March should be the arrival of El Niño, warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean that have effects downstream. Generally, this tends to make temperatures a bit cooler in Texas, and wetter, with a more active storm pattern over the southern United States. The official NOAA forecast, just released Thursday, shows near-normal temperatures for Texas for the January through March period.

This is probably accurate, although we expect to see a couple of rather strong fronts during the coming months, with the coldest period most likely coming during the first half of February. The bottom line is that although the last 10 days of December may be fairly warm, we do not expect this trend to continue through the winter.

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A thin, broken line of showers pushed through Houston this morning ahead of a cold front that is now moving through the region. Skies are already clearing on the west side of the region, and should clear out for all of Houston later this morning. We’ll now have a few sunny days before clouds return later Saturday or Saturday evening.

Thursday

The name of the game today will be winds. Because air pressure will change over a relatively short distance, we’ll see vigorous northwest winds today, and the National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory through 6pm. Conditions won’t be too extreme, but gusts of 30 to 35mph will definitely make for a blustery day as high temperatures struggle to get to 60 degrees. Lows tonight will be clear and cold for the city, although should remain comfortably above freezing.

Friday

Winds should dial back overnight, making for a pleasant day Friday. Look for sunny skies, with highs around 60 degrees. Temperatures Friday night should be a degree or two warmer than Thursday night, but conditions will still be clear and cool.

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