Houston saw another good round of rain showers on Monday, with the region generally receiving a few hundredths of an inch to as much as two inches over the Galena Park area. Prospects for a sunny weekend are looking up. While the National Hurricane Center predicts a system moving into the Gulf of Mexico has a 40 percent chance of becoming a depression or tropical storm, as we’ll discuss below it’s unlikely that Houston will see significant effects.
Moisture levels have fallen, but overall the pattern should be similar today across the Houston area as Monday. A partly sunny start to the morning should give way to mostly cloudy skies later, as temperatures warm into the 80s, and begin to generate scattered showers. Overall, I expect coverage to be less than on Monday, and for accumulations to be less as well. However we should still see a few heavy thunderstorms, with attendant winds and lightning. High temperatures will probably be about 90 degrees, and rains should end by around sunset as temperatures begin to fall.
After a prolonged dry spell, rains returned to Houston on Sunday. For some areas such as northwest Houston, rain totals runneth over with 4 to 6 inches. For other areas, including parts of southeast Houston, just a few drops fell. Probably the bigger news is that we’re now likely transitioning toward a wetter period after an extremely dry month. We’re also going to need to watch for a potentially rainy Memorial Day weekend.
Like on Sunday, atmospheric moisture levels remain pretty high, and enough instability remains that we’re likely to see widespread showers again later this morning as temperatures rise into the 80s. I don’t think accumulations will be as high as on Sunday, but we’ll definitely need to watch out for a few heavy showers. Temperatures probably will remain in the upper 80s with lots of clouds. I’d expect any remaining showers to die off this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Rising moisture levels have combined with rising air to form some moderate-to-strong showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily to the north and west of Houston. The National Weather Service has issued a flood advisory for some of these areas where up to 5 inches of rain have fallen. The advisory (shown below) is in effect through this evening for Houston.
Area of flood advisory in effect until 8:15 pm Sunday. (National Weather Service)
These storms are associated with an outflow boundary, and this complex should slowly move to the southeast this evening. As it does so, rain showers should move into the central and perhaps southern Houston areas, but the storms should also weaken as this happens because atmospheric conditions are less favorable closer to the coast. This is somewhat unfortunate, because the southern half of Houston has not seen significant rainfall in a month. Overall, I would expect showers to die out late this evening, or by around midnight.
Some street flooding is already occurring in areas of the flood advisory, but because the region has been so dry for so long, bayous and creeks should remain within their banks.
As Eric mentioned yesterday, for some in the Houston area, rain has been missing for a good while. And it looks like the next couple days will extend that streak. By Sunday and next week, however, a few subtle changes will at least allow us to at least mention showers again. But it is unlikely that all of us will see rain.
Dry conditions are expanding in Southeast Texas. (NWS Houston)
A quick side note here: I’ve seen some people mention how this is reminding them of 2011 again. We technically aren’t in drought yet. And at this point in 2011, the drought in Southeast Texas was orders of magnitude worse than it is now. So we have a long, long way to go before we’re at that level. Be aware that we have dry conditions, be smart and conscious about burn bans around Texas, and give some thought about conserving water where you can. But, no, this is not a 2011 redux as of mid-May 2018. We need some rain though.
Let’s get into the forecast details.
Today & Saturday
I don’t foresee much change in the overall weather pattern the next two days. Both today and tomorrow should be mainly sunny and hot. After hitting 96° yesterday, expect mid 90s this afternoon and lower 90s on Saturday afternoon. Nighttime lows tonight will drop into the lower 70s. Humidity should increase a little bit above where it has been for the last few days.
Sunday through Tuesday
As onshore flow returns, moisture will come ashore also. Precipitable water (a good measure of how much moisture is available for thunderstorms) is around an inch right now, a little bit below average for this time of year. By Sunday that rises to around 1.5 inches, or around normal. We might be able to stretch it a little bit higher Monday and Tuesday, but for all intents and purposes, we’re just getting back to average here. That should mean that with daytime heating we will see at least a few hit or miss downpours develop each afternoon, especially Monday and Tuesday. But widespread soaking rain seems highly unlikely.
The NWS Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast over Southeast Texas shows an average of around a tenth of an inch through Tuesday. Showers will be limited, despite a more typical setup. (Weather Bell/NWS)
I don’t think everyone will see rain early next week. Hopefully most of us see a little something here, but I’m not overly optimistic.
All three days will see high temperatures around 90 degrees, give or take a couple degrees. Our evenings will be sultry, with lows in the mid 70s, but perhaps close to 80 degrees in Galveston.
