How Houston could hit 90° Wednesday

We’ve been talking since last week about how the end of this week and/or the weekend look like hot days in Houston, giving us our first shot at 90° in 2017. However, after looking at weather data today, I think there’s a legitimate chance Houston could officially touch 90° for the first time tomorrow. Not a guarantee by any means, but there’s a chance. And the meteorology around it is sort of interesting, so let’s lay it out for you.

Step 1: Have a warm air mass in place

The recipe for Houston to hit 90° in late April involves a few factors. And this may seem like a “duh” statement, but it’s important to touch on. You need to have a warm enough air mass overhead.

The GFS forecast for 850 mb temperatures tomorrow afternoon is for them to be around +18°C. (Weather Bell)

 

The GFS forecast for tomorrow afternoon has temperatures borderline, but close enough to historically be capable of producing a 90 degree day in Houston. The map of 850mb temperatures above shows how warm it is about 5,000 feet up in the atmosphere. There’s an old school meteorology trick you can use to forecast high temperatures using the 850 mb temperature in the morning. It involves using a sounding (as explained here) and taking the 850 mb temperature down what we call the dry adiabat to the surface. One of the problems tomorrow is that with a front coming through, it creates volatility, which makes using that method difficult. But if you look at forecast soundings for 4 PM tomorrow afternoon, they look healthy for at least an 87-89° sort of day.

The forecasted sounding tomorrow afternoon over Houston is favorable for at least the upper 80s. (BUFKIT, NWS)

 

So on Wednesday, we have just a barely warm enough atmosphere to work with.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Warmer weather returns, thunderstorms possible this weekend in Houston

The onshore flow gets going today, and eventually that moisture will bring the threat of thunderstorms by this weekend.

Today

After another day of low humidity on Monday, conditions will change today as the onshore flow really gets cranked up. We’re going to see increasing southerly winds, which may gust above 20mph, and will raise moisture levels across the area. This may bring some clouds this afternoon, but rain chances will remain near zero as high temperatures rise into the mid-80s. Lows tonight will be warm for late spring, only falling into the low 70s.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be another very warm day, with highs in the upper 80s, but will be punctuated with some uncertainty during the late afternoon and evening hours as a cool front approaches the area. While a cap may limit rain activity, and conditions are not ideal, this front has the potential to produce a broken line of thunderstorms as it moves through Houston later in the day and during the late evening hours. Even so, I’m not anticipating any kind of significant accumulations for areas that do get rain. Temperatures will fall off fairly quickly late Wednesday night after the front’s passage.

Thursday and Friday

The cooler conditions will be short-lived, however, and effectively end later on Thursday. The first half of the day will nonetheless be quite pleasant for the Houston region, with lows dropping to the upper 50s for inland areas, and lower 60s along the coast.

Forecast high temperatures for Friday in Houston. (National Weather Service)

Look for sunny conditions on both Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 80s Thursday, and upper 80s on Friday. I would not be shocked to see the region’s first 90-degree day of the season on Friday, either, but right now I’d bet against it.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Houston’s cold spell ending, another front next weekend could bring storms

Houston is enjoying fine, cool weather this morning, with temperatures ranging from the mid-40s across Montgomery County down to around 60 degrees at the coast. If only this would last, but we know it won’t.

Today

Expect mostly sunny skies today as high pressure persists for most of the day over Houston, with high temperatures rising to about 80 degrees. At some point this afternoon or evening we’ll see the resumption of winds from off the coast. Lows tonight should still get into the low 60s for most of Houston.

Tuesday

A similar day to Monday, although slightly warmer for the region, and with the persistent onshore flow we’ll see a much warmer night, with overnight lows into Wednesday morning about 10 degrees warmer.

Wednesday

For a couple of days we’ve been watching the possibility of a cool front on Wednesday with a “will it or won’t it” question as to whether it will move all the way through the Houston area. Now it looks like the front will indeed make it through, and now the question is its potential for rain. Conditions are more favorable for rain north of Houston than over central or southern parts of the region, and even then I don’t think we’re looking at more than a tenth of an inch, or two. Highs in the mid-80s.

A weak front should make it through by late Wednesday night. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

The cool front will give us a brief reprieve in overnight temperatures, and I expect central and northern parts of Houston will have a chance to get into the upper 50s on Thursday morning before another warm day in the mid-80s. Less humidity will also feel nice—but it won’t last.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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One final hurrah at comfortable weather before summer sets in?

Houston: Get ready for one, potentially final splash of beautiful weather. Never say never, but it’s getting deep into spring now, and any opportunities at comfortable weather can be fleeting around here. But what we have coming this weekend will be absolutely sublime. Let’s get into details.

Today

No real issues are expected today. Yes, an isolated shower could occur, but it looks like a very slim chance. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with slowly increasing humidity. Expect mid to perhaps upper 80s this afternoon.

Saturday’s front

Let’s talk cold front. Expect the front to traverse the region from northwest to southeast through the day, arriving in Conroe around mid-morning, Bush Airport and Katy mid to late morning, South Houston around midday, and Galveston through Lake Jackson around early to mid-afternoon.

Dewpoint forecast for Saturday shows extremely refreshing air arriving from northwest to southeast through the day, lagging the front by just a few hours. (Weather Bell)

For those participating in the Ironman North American Championship Texas in The Woodlands Saturday, I wish we could speed the front up six hours, but alas it waits until Saturday morning. It will be a bit challenging, with temperatures starting the event in the mid to upper 60s, warming into the upper 70s by early afternoon. The precipitous drop in humidity expected behind the front probably won’t begin until early Saturday afternoon. Not the worst we’ve seen around here in spring, but probably not ideal either.

Best of luck to anyone participating in the Ironman in The Woodlands Saturday!

In terms of rainfall, I don’t expect much. A narrow, broken line of showers and maybe a rogue rumble of thunder will be possible as the front moves through. This means some of you may get briefly rained on, others may not. No severe weather is expected. Temperatures will still peak around 80° or so in Houston on Saturday afternoon (cooler north, warmer south). You won’t notice much of a big change until mid to late Saturday afternoon when the refreshing air begins to pour in.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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