Post-Harvey week in review: December 18, 2017

It’s another Monday, so it’s time for another week in review of articles about Harvey-related issues in Texas. If you missed previous recaps, they are here:

Post-Harvey week in review: December 11, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: December 4, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: November 27, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: November 20, 2017

Just as a note: With Christmas and New Years upcoming on Mondays, we’ll table this feature until next year. Look for this to resume in early 2018.

Reads of the week

The Houston Chronicle’s “Developing Storm” series. Parts one and two are linked in last week’s post. The next three parts are linked below. There should be two more coming soon. These are very much worth your time to read, as they’re educational, informative, and, at times, maddening.

Part 3: What’s in Houston’s worst flood zones? Development worth $13.5 billion (Houston Chronicle): Since 2008, 1,400 structures worth $4.2 billion have been built on floodway parcels in Harris County. Part 3 of the Chronicle’s seven part series examines the differences between floodways and floodplains and how Houston’s regulations have evolved (or haven’t) despite our experience with frequent floods over the years.

Part 4: Harvey overwhelmed some levee systems. Future storms could do worse (Houston Chronicle): Levee systems protecting subdivisions in Fort Bend County probably performed as they were supposed to, but that didn’t prevent over 100 homes from being flooded during Harvey. And by no means do levees guarantee future protection from flooding.

Part 5: Officials patched and prayed while pressure built on Houston’s dams (Houston Chronicle): Addicks and Barker Dams have done enormous service to Houston. Learn about their history and learn how much trouble Houston would be in if they were to fail.

Flooding fact sheets

Continuing on the idea of educating and informing Houston residents: The Greater Houston Flood Mitigation Consortium has published fact sheets to help people in the Houston area better understand terms, technicalities, and flooding risks. Four of them are linked below.

Flood warning systems 
What is a floodplain? 
How to assess flood damage 
What are detention basins?

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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On and off rain this week, with warmer weather until Friday

Good morning. We are now just one week from Christmas, and there are still some key uncertainties in terms of both temperature and precipitation. We’ll break it down below, but the bottom line is that the last week of 2017 does look quite cold.

Monday

For the first time since Dec. 4, overnight lows didn’t cool down much on Sunday night for most of the city of Houston except northern areas, and lows this morning are generally only down around 60 degrees. Under cloudy skies, don’t expect too much of a warm up with highs in the upper 60s or around 70 degrees. Most of the area should also see at least some light precipitation today, with accumulations of a few tenths of an inch. We don’t anticipate heavy rainfall expect possibly for areas far to the northwest of Houston.

Tuesday

The region’s warm and muggy weather will continue on Tuesday, with a warm night again only down in the low 60s. We’ll also see a decent chance of rainfall during the day and evening hours, especially for inland areas.

Severe weather outlook for Tuesday and Tuesday night. (NOAA)

If you live on the inland side of Highway 59/Interstate 69, accumulations of 0.5 inch or greater are possible, but if you live closer to the coast you can probably expect less than that. A few strong thunderstorms may be possible area-wide later in the day (see the severe weather outlook), most likely during the afternoon or evening hours.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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More frequent rain chances for Houston

After an autumn that has seen Texas slip into drought and cooler weather than we’ve had the last couple years, we’re now adding a more active pattern with a few more rain chances to boot. A lot to cover, so let’s dive in.

Today

Today is a day where we need two or three forecasts for the area. You can see that on this satellite image from this morning.

GOES-16 satellite imagery is back online and officially operational. The back edge of clouds will try and push southeast today but it may not make it to Houston. (Univ of Wisconsin SSEC)

At the coast: Expect clouds and a chance of showers or periods of light rain. The steadier rain will stay offshore, but if you live within 20 miles of the Gulf, you will probably see some raindrops at times today, especially in the morning. Inland from there, including most of the Houston metro area, we’ll just be cloudy. Some light rain or drizzle is possible southeast of town in the morning, and some sunshine is possible in Houston and northwest during the afternoon. Further northwest of Houston, expect a mix of sun and clouds to develop. Temperatures will range from the mid-50s south and east to the mid or upper-50s with clouds and sun north and west.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday will see a change, as a brief surge of onshore flow leads to increasing rain chances as the day goes on. If you have outdoor plans, the morning might be your safest bet. Expect scattered showers or thunderstorms to break out from west to east Saturday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches. Rain may be briefly heavy at times, along with some strong or even severe thunderstorms (mainly south and east of Houston) overnight Saturday. Right now, any severe weather looks pretty isolated and mainly east of the area. If this changes, Eric or myself will update you tomorrow.

Rain should quickly end from west to east across the area probably between about 12 and 3 AM Sunday.  The exception to this may be along the coast, where a few showers will linger through Sunday morning. Total rainfall for this event will probably be a half inch to an inch on average, with a few spots perhaps picking up one to two inches of rain.

NWS forecast of total rainfall through Sunday evening shows around an inch in most of the area. A few places will see more, others less. (NWS/Weather Bell)

 

Temperatures will top off in the upper 50s Saturday afternoon, then drop off behind the front Saturday night into the lower-50s. Sunday should see improving conditions with a bit of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper-60s.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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Houston’s weather pattern turns wetter, and eventually a bit warmer

After a week without rainfall, the region will see some decent rain chances over the next several days. That’s not to say we are going to see a total washout, but there’s the potential for a solid 1 to 2 inches of rainfall between now and next Wednesday, with isolated areas seeing a little more. Let’s take a more detailed look at the forecast.

Rainfall accumulation forecast for now through Wednesday morning. (NOAA/Weather Bell)

Thursday

Today will be the last day with a near zero chance of rainfall, even as a cold front moves through later on this afternoon. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a high temperature in the mid- to upper-60s. This is pretty typical weather for December.

Friday

After the front we may see some scattered showers tonight, with rain chances best to the south of Houston, from Galveston down the coast to Matagorda Bay. Most likely, central parts of Houston won’t see much if any rain on Thursday night and Friday morning. The day itself will be cold, with highs likely remaining in the 50s under mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows on Friday will fall into the low 40s for most of Houston, with upper 30s for inland areas in Montgomery County, and warmer conditions along the coast.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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