Houston should turn cooler today

Many of our complaints about lack of sunshine were lodged and received. We’ve had a couple nice, albeit steamy afternoons this week, officially hitting 80 and 81 degrees on back to back days for the first time since November 17-18 of last autumn. For some that may be too much, too fast, but alas, here we are.

Today through Tonight

We’ll attempt to make another run toward 80 today, but added cloud cover and a few shower chances should limit how warm we can get. But, after a mild start this morning, we should still easily make the upper 70s this afternoon. There’s not much happening in the atmosphere to favor any significant showers today, but some lighter showers will be possible later as our next cold front approaches.

The front should make it to the northwest suburbs of Houston around 3-6 PM or so. Behind it, temperatures will ease back into the 60s and humidity should lower some. As the front moves through Houston, it will begin to grind to a halt. As of now, it looks like forward progress stops somewhere around Clear Lake to Dickinson. You can see this clearly while looking at an animation of dewpoints today.

NAM model dewpoints show how the front slams on the brakes southeast of Houston tonight. (Weather Bell)

So most of us will cool down into the mid or upper 50s tonight, but it will stay mild and humid southeast of the front, including Galveston east to Beaumont, where you probably won’t drop below 60-65 degrees. We’ll have low clouds and light showers behind the front and low clouds, drizzle, and fog probably ahead of it tonight. Fog may continue to linger in Galveston through the night.

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And just like that, winter is pretty much over in Houston

The sunshine broke out on Wednesday afternoon, and this allowed Houston to record its first high temperature of 80 degrees for the year 2018. I joked on Twitter that this probably won’t be the last time it happens, but in reality I think Wednesday’s high was symbolic. We are in the midst of transitioning from winter to spring.

A lot of people have asked whether we are done with freezes. (My wife, a gardener, especially wants to know). We think so. Typically, the last freeze for central and southern parts of Houston (think Harris County and areas closer to the coast) occurs in mid-February, and for northern areas (think Montgomery, Waller, Liberty) it is late February or early March. This year it seems highly unlikely that the region will see a freeze for the next two weeks, which gets us to March. There are always outliers—for example, Hobby Airport recorded a freeze on April 13, 1940—but the odds at this point favor no more freezes for the winter of 2017-2018.

The 16-day GFS ensemble forecast shows low probabilities of overnight temperatures in the 40s, let alone the 30s, for the rest of February. (Weather Bell)

Now, onto the forecast.

Thursday

The dense fog is back for some areas, with an advisory in effect for the entire region until Noon Thursday. Please take a little extra time on roads this morning. After the fog breaks, we’ll be left with mostly cloudy skies, although I think we’ll have some more moments of sunshine this afternoon. The amount of sunshine will determine the high temperature, but I think its likely we’ll get back to 80 degrees today. Lows tonight will only fall into the mid-60s.

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Why has Houston’s weather turned into Seattle?

Very warm, moist air in combination with a relatively colder air mass is a good recipe for fog, and that’s just what we’re going to have the next couple of days until a cool front moves through Friday. A dense fog advisory is in effect until 10am this morning, and even by then some areas may be slow to clear. Also, after the forecast, I discuss why our weather has been Seattle-like of late.

Wednesday

Temperatures are considerably warmer this morning, with overnight lows settling into the upper 50s and not falling any further. After the fog dissipates later this morning, or by noon, it will reveal—you guessed it—more cloudy skies above. Some light scattered showers will also be possible as high temperatures generally climb into the low 70s.

Expect a warm, gray day today. (Pivotal Weather)

 

Thursday

Expect another warm night, and this time low temperatures probably will only fall into the 60s. We’ll see more fog developing during the overnight hours, especially along the coast, where it probably will continue to play havoc with maritime activities. A chance of light rain will remain before noon, but I still have some hope that the region will see clearing skies later in the day. I’m hoping for some sunshine and highs in the mid-70s. Enjoy it, because this will probably be the only sunshine for awhile.

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I’m hopeful Houston will have one partly sunny day this week

As brutal as it sounds, Houston may have just one partly sunny day during the next seven days—with the rest of our weather being mostly cloudy. But if that’s got you feeling blue (unlike the sky), just remember that for all of December, the city of Moscow saw only six minutes of sunshine. So as ever, it could be worse.

Tuesday

In a word, gloomy. The day will start chilly, in the low- to mid-40s for most of Houston. With widespread clouds holding on, we should see highs only in the mid-50s on Tuesday, and as moisture levels start to rise later today, we should also see some light to moderate rain showers—but accumulations shouldn’t be an issue. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will basically remain flat from the day’s highs, as warmer air moves into the region.

Wednesday

The warmer air will do its work and, despite mostly cloudy skies, we can expect high temperatures to climb into at least the low 70s on Wednesday.

High temperatures will rebound nicely across the region. (Pivotal Weather)

Some slight, scattered rain showers are possible, but by no means certain. Lows Wednesday night should only fall into the mid-60s. If you’re planning some kind of outdoor activity for Valentine’s evening, I think the weather should mostly cooperate.

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