Following a wet Halloween night and soggy start to Wednesday, Houston should dry out some later today as a storm system moves off to the east of the region. However, we cannot rule out a few lingering storms this morning for central parts of the area, and into the early afternoon hours for the eastern side of the metro area, including the slight possibility of a tornado. After today, rain chances fall, and Houston warms quite a bit for early November.
Wednesday
As anticipated, about 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rain fell across the Houston region, but fortunately we did not see any of the really heavy rainfall that might cause street flooding—or worse.
Rainfall accumulation from 6am Tuesday to 6am Wednesday. (Harris County OEM)
The stalled front and associated instability will move off to the east today, and I expect rains to end in Houston by or before noon. But for areas to the east of Interstate 45 we can’t rule out a tornado today given the potential for some rotation. Any twisters that do form should be short-lived. Highs should reach about 80 degrees for most of Houston, with a correspondingly warm night.
It’s much warmer this morning across the Houston area, as humidity and higher temperatures return and will stay for a while. This southerly flow in combination with a weak, stalled cold front will lead to some pretty healthy rain chances later today, tonight, and Wednesday morning. It’s nothing we’re too concerned about, but it could put a damper on some Halloween escapades this evening.
Halloween and tonight
One of my least favorite things about fall weather in Houston is the stalling front—a cool front with just enough oomph to make it into the Houston area, but essentially stalls or fizzles out near the coast. This creates favorable conditions for rain (and sometimes thunderstorms) but no lasting cooling. Alas, that is what we will see today, as moisture moves back in from the Gulf of Mexico and meets the unstable air from the front.
I think we’re going to see mostly light to moderate, scattered rain showers for this morning, with the added possibility of a few scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Rain chances increase this evening—right around trick-or-treating time—and then really pick up later tonight and into Wednesday morning. For the most part I’d guess we’re looking at 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall, but areas near the stalled front where heavier showers develop could see 4 or more inches over time. I don’t think we’re looking at flood concerns, because the rainfall rates don’t look particularly intense, but some areas could see steady rainfall for a number of hours that adds up.
This HRRR model forecast for radar activity at 5pm CT shows the potential for showers this evening. (Weather Bell)
My hope is that most neighborhoods can get enough dry time this evening between 6 and 8pm for trick or treating (no guarantees on that, sorry) and that we’re all inside celebrating an Astros World Series victory after the widespread, heavier rain arrives.
Did you enjoy our brief romp with winter? Houston smashed some records with a low temperature of 35 degrees on Sunday at Bush Intercontinental Airport (breaking a mark of 39 degrees), and a low of 39 degrees at Hobby Airport (breaking a mark of 42 degrees). Perhaps hell is freezing over because the Houston Astros are about to win the World Series? Anyway, this cold spell offered a taste of winter, but after another pleasant day Monday we’re going to settle back into a warmer pattern for awhile.
Today
Southerly winds have already returned, and while this morning saw clear and cool conditions in the low 50s, we’ll warm quickly into the upper 70s under mostly sunny skies.
Halloween
Tuesday will offer mostly treats in terms of weather—but potentially a few tricks as well. We’re going to see a weak cool front move into the Houston area and then essentially stall at or near the coast. Effectively, this means we are going to see some increasing rain chances later on Tuesday, especially to the west and southwest of the Houston metro area.
Temperatures during trick-or-treating will be pleasant. But what of the our rain chances? (Weather Bell)
While some light rain is possible in Houston during the afternoon and evening hours, I’m hopeful that some or most of the region will remain dry. However, rain chances will improve significantly during the overnight hours. Temperatures during trick-or-treating will likely be in the upper 60s to lower 70 degrees.
On Tuesday evening, just as the Astros took the field for game one in Los Angeles, I had the pleasure of attending a Baker Institute event at Rice University featuring Dr. Jim Blackburn. “Beyond Hurricane Harvey” was a discussion and Q&A with Blackburn, who is the co-director of the Severe Storms Prevention, Education, and Evacuation from Disaster (SSPEED) Center at Rice. During Tuesday’s event, Blackburn basically laid out his vision for how we need to discuss and tackle Houston’s flooding problem from this point forward. Many of these ideas were incorporated by Harris County Judge Ed Emmett in the plan that he unveiled on Wednesday. Nevertheless, here is a summary and some of my takeaways from Tuesday’s event.
Tuesday night’s event was held at the Rice University Baker Institute by their young professionals group. (Matt Lanza)
Turning point: Blackburn opened by calling Harvey a turning point in Houston’s history. This is basically our moment to get this right. We all know we live in a city that is prone to flooding. We can never stop that from happening, but we can manage it in ways that will reduce the financial and human toll that has accompanied recent flooding events. Houston has an opportunity now to become the world leaders at weather and climate resiliency. While showing a chart of hurricane tracks impacting the Texas coast, Blackburn related the story of Indianola and Galveston. Indianola was wiped out by a hurricane in 1886, and we know the story of Galveston after 1900. Blackburn believes that Houston’s future as a leading American and global city may hinge on what we are able to accomplish over the next several months. If we bungle the response to this disaster, we could be looking at a steady economic decline in our region.
Blackburn referred to this situation as a new “Jesse Jones moment” for Houston. Speed couldn’t be emphasized enough. We need to get these solutions moving now, while the wounds from Harvey (and previous events) are still fresh and raw. The longer we wait, the less likely we’ll accomplish meaningful action. Amusingly, Blackburn shared the “Off the Charts” report published by Harris County Flood Control after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001.
We were in the same boat 16 years ago, but we still have a long way to go. (HCFCD)
Here we are again. We need a vision, a plan (we seem to have those moving forward), and now we need to mobilize the public and persuade our elected leaders to take action immediately. Blackburn was asked whether Houston’s infamous lack of zoning contributed to the problems from Harvey. He made the point that it was not a major cause, but what is a problem is the typical, almost “closed door” nature of Harris County government. Lots of items get addressed really quickly without much discussion at various county meetings. The population of this area is also somewhat agnostic toward government participation. We’re not engaged enough. For problems as big as this, everyone needs to be firing on all cylinders, taking politicians to task, asking questions, demanding transparency. It’s easy to be cynical, but in this situation, it’s important not to be.
