Strong, scattered storms likely for Labor Day afternoon

It may have been difficult to discern, but Friday and Saturday morning were a bit cooler and drier for Houston, especially northern parts of the region. Well, forget about that now, moisture began returning on Saturday to raise dew points and storm chances for the Labor Day Holiday.

Houston should see more of the same locally heavy storms that developed on Sunday across the region later today, although there may be some increase in coverage. As the storms should stream through the region at a fairly decent clip I don’t anticipate any flooding, but some areas could pick up 2 to 3 inches pretty quickly (while a few miles away may see dark clouds, but no rain).

Precipitable water levels will be about 140 percent of normal later today. (Weather Bell)
Precipitable water levels will be about 140 percent of normal later today. (Weather Bell)

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A mixed Labor Day Weekend for Southeast Texas

East Texas has been on the dry side of Hurricane Hermine in the Eastern Gulf. Typically we have onshore winds this time of year, but the last couple days, we’ve had winds coming from the north and northeast, ushering in just enough slightly drier air and sinking air to help temperatures surge into the mid and upper 90s (97° officially yesterday). Dry air is easier to heat up than high humidity air, so it’s been a hot couple of days. We’ll begin to transition back to typical late summer this weekend.

Today

Things start to get a little tricky today. Fortunately they won’t have major implications, but it may impact the details of the forecast a bit. A weak cold front to our north will drop southward today. It should essentially stall out and start to fall apart over us or to our north. Combined with the sea breeze returning, those two will act as a minor focus for some showers and storms this afternoon. The best chance for storms today will be west of I-45, but they will be very sporadic and hit or miss.

HRRR model forecast shows very spotty showers this afternoon, primarily west of I-45. (Weather Bell)
HRRR model forecast shows very spotty showers this afternoon, primarily west of I-45. (Weather Bell)

With a little more humidity and onshore flow (and storm chances), we’ll see high temperatures just short of where they’ve been the last couple days. Expect low to mid 90s today instead of the mid to upper 90s of Thursday.

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After one more hot day we’ll cool down a bit for Labor Day Weekend

Houston’s temperatures reached 95 degrees on Wednesday—also known as full summer—and we’ve got one more very warm day before things turn a little cooler, and a little grayer.

Today

With some high pressure over head, mostly sunny skies, and only slim afternoon rain chances today will be another very hot day for the region, with temperatures in the mid-90s. But even for early September, this is pretty typical weather for Houston.

Friday

On Friday a weak front will approach the region from the northeast, and should eventually push through the Houston metro area. Effectively this will increase cloud cover and raise rain chances a bit during the afternoon hours, and some areas may get a few tenths of an inch of rain. The front will moderate temperatures and dewpoints slightly, such that by around sunset, instead of a heat index of 95 degrees, we should see 85 degrees. It won’t feel amazing, but for early September, it should feel entirely pleasing.

A comparison of the GFS model forecast for relative humidity on Thursday night versus Friday night (bottom). (Weather Bell)
A comparison of the GFS model forecast for relative humidity on Thursday night versus Friday night (bottom). (Weather Bell)

(Thank you to Meyerland Animal Clinic for sponsoring Space City Weather this month.)

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TS Hermine finally forms in Gulf, bound for Florida and beyond

After what seems like months of build-up, speculation and watching, Tropical Storm Hermine has finally formed in the Gulf of Mexico. The system still looks somewhat ragged, but its wind speeds have come up, and there’s now the potential for further development before it nears the Florida coast in about 36 hours.

The system has gotten a lot of hype for a mere tropical storm. Part of this is because about a week ago the respected European model really showed strong development (which hasn’t occurred yet), and the fact that it has been nearly three years since a hurricane formed or passed through the Gulf of Mexico. And while this system, formerly known as Invest 99L and Tropical Depression Nine, has been subject to some derision it now should be taken seriously—not only by Florida but much of the east US coast.

Right now this is a big tropical storm, with tropical-storm force winds out to about 100 miles from its center. Those winds may well intensify as the storm has the potential to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane before landfall, although this is far from certain. Hermine also is both a rain (10-15 inches for some locations of Florida is possible) and surge threat to the west coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center has these threats covered in its rainfall and storm surge products.

Track models for Tropical Storm Hermine. (Weather Bell)
Track models for Tropical Storm Hermine. (Weather Bell)

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